Fresh off the bye week Montana hits the road two weeks in a row, and up first they’re off to Greeley, CO to play the Northern Colorado Bears. UNC was previously on a multi-year streak of losses, until they beat Weber State the week after Weber beat Montana – in Ogden. Much like the Griz, UNC is coming off their bye week as well so both teams are presumably as fresh as you can be at this point in the season.
UNC’s head coach is a guy super familiar with the Big Sky, Ed Lamb, he was hired before the 2023 season after their disastrous Ed McCaffrey experiment. Lamb rebuilt Southern Utah and even won a Big Sky conference title with them in 2015. Lamb and Hauck have squared off before in 2008, the Griz won 46-10. Lamb’s SUU Thunderbirds would return to Missoula in 2012 and lose 30-20, and then they hosted the Griz in 2014 and lost 35-17. UNC does have another familiar face on the coaching staff, corners coach JB Hall had the same position coaching job with Bob Stitt here at Montana.
UNC’s media / info is kind of light so I’m unsure on their number of returning starters, etc. UNC was picked to finish 11th media / 12th coaches. UNC does have their P/K and a D-lineman returning to this team that were honorable mention all conference last year.
Northern Colorado Bears
7-28 loss @ Incarnate Word – UIW is currently ranked 10th in the polls, right behind Montana. The game was tied 7-7, and UIW had a 14-7 lead at the half. They’d tack on the rest of their scores in the 3rd quarter. UNC in the first half would see two drives end in turnovers. Then in the 2nd half after a 3rd turnover they had 3 consecutive drives end in turnovers on downs, twice getting over to the UIW side of the field. Both teams went for over 200 rushing, but UIW would also go over 200 passing while UNC had 146. UNC’s 3 turnovers earlier killed them, the 3 turnovers on downs were at a point where they were already down 21 and well into the 2nd half.
17-38 loss @ Colorado State – CSU beat UNC with a balanced attack going over 200 yards both rushing and passing, while holding UNC to under 300 total yards in the game. CSU just slowly outpaced UNC and put them away as the game went on. CSU is 4-3 right now on the season and one of 3 teams still undefeated in the Mountain West.
22-24 loss vs Abilene Christian – I watched some of this game, boy oh boy, UNC had this one won and gave it away in the final seconds. It was a low scoring affair, 14-10 ACU at the half, they then stretch it to 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. With 8 minutes to go in the game UNC scores a TD to cap a 14 play, 75 yard drive but fail on the 2 point attempt. They hold ACU to a 3 and out, get the ball back, and score again. This time they go 69 yards (nice) and find the endzone with 1:10 left in the game, again failing on the 2 point conversion, however they’re now up 22-21. ACU gets the ball and in 5 plays they’re already to the UNC 22 – it’s looking like a short kick for a winner. However! ACU then gets a personal foul on their next play – pushing them back to their 37 yard line, where they then attempt, and make, a 54 yard winner. Kind of lopsided stats in this one, ACU would pass for 230, but rush for just 99. While UNC would rush for 240 but pass for just 25 yards. This is the same ACU team that lost to Texas Tech 52-51 in an overtime game, and lost to (then) red hot Idaho by 3 and are currently ranked 17th in the FCS.
7-48 loss @ Stephen F Austin – Former Griz QB Sam Vidlak passed for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. SFA would tally 509 total yards, mostly balanced, and hold UNC to 242 total yards, just 18 passing, in the game. UNC played 4 QBs in the game.
7-28 loss vs Cal Poly – Poly ran for 290, passed for 200 and UNC got just 213 total yards in the game. A stat from this that stands out is Poly’s 200 passing came on just 9 completions. UNC again rotated QBs a bit and it seemed to help their passing game a little.
17-55 loss @ Bozeman State – While the blowout was expected, UNC did come away from this game thinking they found their QB in Kia’I Keone who passed for nearly 250 yards with 1 TD and gained about 42 yards rushing as well. Cats offense did what you’d expect, 280 rushing, 230 passing, total beat down.
21-17 win @ Weber State – UNC finally notched a win, their first since 11/12/2022. In this game Weber would lose 4 fumbles and toss 1 interception, while UNC would lose no turnovers at all. Weber out-gained UNC 401 to 321 but going -5 on the day is a real tough hill to climb, even though UNC would just score 7 points off those 5 turnovers. Both teams did go over 200 rushing. As sloppy as it was for Weber they gave away a 17-7 lead, seeing UNC score TDs with 7:29 left in the 3rd and then again with 6:14 left in the game. Weber would have 2 chances after to try to win, the first turned into a 3 and out, and the 2nd ended with a pick.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (233 for GRIZ vs 126 for UNC)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (250 for GRIZ vs 168 for UNC)
Total offense GRIZ (483 for GRIZ vs 295 for UNC)
Passing yards allowed per game UNC (224 for GRIZ vs 217 for UNC)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (149 for GRIZ vs 221 for UNC)
Total defense GRIZ (374 for GRIZ vs 438 for UNC)
First time in a while Montana gets some stats their way on the defensive side. Montana adds 5 while UNC gets just 1.
Offense points scored GRIZ (41.3 for GRIZ vs 14 for UNC)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (30.3 for GRIZ vs 34 for UNC)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+/- 0 for GRIZ / +1 for UNC)
Field goal % GRIZ (71.5% for GRIZ vs 50% for UNC)
Punt Returns GRIZ (8.5 yards for GRIZ vs 6 yards for UNC)
Kick Returns GRIZ (23 yards for GRIZ vs 12 yards for UNC)
T.O.P. UNC (30:36 for GRIZ vs 30:45 for UNC)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (61% GRIZ / 71% UNC)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (71.5% GRIZ / 57% UNC)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (43.8% for GRIZ / 31.2% for UNC)
3rd down defense UNC – (38.5% allowed for GRIZ vs 37% allowed for UNC)
UNC grabs a few, barely, they get TOP by 9 more seconds and 3rd down defense by essentially 1.5% better stop rate. Montana adds a total of 10, UNC adds 2. That puts the total to Montana 15 – UNC 3.
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UNC Players to Watch:
#10 Kia’i Keone, QB – As mentioned in the game by game, Keone seems to have found his footing as QB1 for the Bears and has done better than the team stats suggest. In the 3 games he’s started (Poly / MSU / Weber) he’s passed for 480 yards, 1 TD, and rushed for about 100 yards and 2 TDs. He’s a zone-read / mobile QB in an offense that uses A LOT of pre-snap motion. Fun fact – Keone played for the same high school Kamehameha High School as Keali’i Ah Yat. Keone played his senior year in Utah though and is a grad student now so a little bit of distance between the two.
#88 Brayden Munroe, WR – A 6-2, 200 pound receiver Munroe is the key playmaker in the UNC offense, and special teams. He leads the team by a good margin in receiving with 305 yards and 2 TDs. He also is their primary punt and kick returner, although his numbers so far aren’t much to report (5 yards/punt & 11 yards/kick).
#0 Darius Stewart, RB – One of the two primary running backs this team uses a lot. He has 59 carries, 304 yards, and 2 TDs, just 2 catches for 0 total yards though. He’s 5-9, 195 pounds
#27 Caden Meis, RB – Meis has just 3 less carries than Stewart, he’s got 179 rushing yards and 3 TDs on the season. Of UNC’s rushing game Meis, Stewart, and the QB Keone account for 56% of the team rushing yards.
#40 Cam Chapa, LB – A freshman LB that’s already 2nd on the team in tackles with 38, he has just 0.5 TFLs and he leads the team with 2 interceptions.
#9 Keyvon Lakes, LB – Credit this kid for sticking with this team through the tough times, a 3 year starter he leads the team with 41 tackles, 4 TFLs, and 1 sack – he’s got 1 fumble recovery as well.
#6 Franky Morales, CB – A 5-8 CB that is 3rd on the team in tackles, he’s got 35, he also has a team high 4 pass breakups and 2 TFLs.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
Yes it’s UNC, yes they’ve been historically bad, however they’ve hung around with a few teams this year. They’re not a good team/roster yet but it does appear that Coach Lamb has them playing hard and believing in themselves. I think Montana is going to face a team with renewed energy after their first win and if the Grizzlies aren’t careful they’ll find themselves in a bit more of a fight than they planned for. I doubt this staff is taking UNC for granted, but it still worries me.
At the end of the day though, if Montana is the team we expect them to be, they should pull away and handle the Bears on Saturday. As long as the Grizzly defense doesn’t find themselves too out of position too often I’ll say Montana comes home with a win, 48-17.
Go Griz!
UNC’s head coach is a guy super familiar with the Big Sky, Ed Lamb, he was hired before the 2023 season after their disastrous Ed McCaffrey experiment. Lamb rebuilt Southern Utah and even won a Big Sky conference title with them in 2015. Lamb and Hauck have squared off before in 2008, the Griz won 46-10. Lamb’s SUU Thunderbirds would return to Missoula in 2012 and lose 30-20, and then they hosted the Griz in 2014 and lost 35-17. UNC does have another familiar face on the coaching staff, corners coach JB Hall had the same position coaching job with Bob Stitt here at Montana.
UNC’s media / info is kind of light so I’m unsure on their number of returning starters, etc. UNC was picked to finish 11th media / 12th coaches. UNC does have their P/K and a D-lineman returning to this team that were honorable mention all conference last year.
Northern Colorado Bears
7-28 loss @ Incarnate Word – UIW is currently ranked 10th in the polls, right behind Montana. The game was tied 7-7, and UIW had a 14-7 lead at the half. They’d tack on the rest of their scores in the 3rd quarter. UNC in the first half would see two drives end in turnovers. Then in the 2nd half after a 3rd turnover they had 3 consecutive drives end in turnovers on downs, twice getting over to the UIW side of the field. Both teams went for over 200 rushing, but UIW would also go over 200 passing while UNC had 146. UNC’s 3 turnovers earlier killed them, the 3 turnovers on downs were at a point where they were already down 21 and well into the 2nd half.
17-38 loss @ Colorado State – CSU beat UNC with a balanced attack going over 200 yards both rushing and passing, while holding UNC to under 300 total yards in the game. CSU just slowly outpaced UNC and put them away as the game went on. CSU is 4-3 right now on the season and one of 3 teams still undefeated in the Mountain West.
22-24 loss vs Abilene Christian – I watched some of this game, boy oh boy, UNC had this one won and gave it away in the final seconds. It was a low scoring affair, 14-10 ACU at the half, they then stretch it to 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. With 8 minutes to go in the game UNC scores a TD to cap a 14 play, 75 yard drive but fail on the 2 point attempt. They hold ACU to a 3 and out, get the ball back, and score again. This time they go 69 yards (nice) and find the endzone with 1:10 left in the game, again failing on the 2 point conversion, however they’re now up 22-21. ACU gets the ball and in 5 plays they’re already to the UNC 22 – it’s looking like a short kick for a winner. However! ACU then gets a personal foul on their next play – pushing them back to their 37 yard line, where they then attempt, and make, a 54 yard winner. Kind of lopsided stats in this one, ACU would pass for 230, but rush for just 99. While UNC would rush for 240 but pass for just 25 yards. This is the same ACU team that lost to Texas Tech 52-51 in an overtime game, and lost to (then) red hot Idaho by 3 and are currently ranked 17th in the FCS.
7-48 loss @ Stephen F Austin – Former Griz QB Sam Vidlak passed for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. SFA would tally 509 total yards, mostly balanced, and hold UNC to 242 total yards, just 18 passing, in the game. UNC played 4 QBs in the game.
7-28 loss vs Cal Poly – Poly ran for 290, passed for 200 and UNC got just 213 total yards in the game. A stat from this that stands out is Poly’s 200 passing came on just 9 completions. UNC again rotated QBs a bit and it seemed to help their passing game a little.
17-55 loss @ Bozeman State – While the blowout was expected, UNC did come away from this game thinking they found their QB in Kia’I Keone who passed for nearly 250 yards with 1 TD and gained about 42 yards rushing as well. Cats offense did what you’d expect, 280 rushing, 230 passing, total beat down.
21-17 win @ Weber State – UNC finally notched a win, their first since 11/12/2022. In this game Weber would lose 4 fumbles and toss 1 interception, while UNC would lose no turnovers at all. Weber out-gained UNC 401 to 321 but going -5 on the day is a real tough hill to climb, even though UNC would just score 7 points off those 5 turnovers. Both teams did go over 200 rushing. As sloppy as it was for Weber they gave away a 17-7 lead, seeing UNC score TDs with 7:29 left in the 3rd and then again with 6:14 left in the game. Weber would have 2 chances after to try to win, the first turned into a 3 and out, and the 2nd ended with a pick.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (233 for GRIZ vs 126 for UNC)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (250 for GRIZ vs 168 for UNC)
Total offense GRIZ (483 for GRIZ vs 295 for UNC)
Passing yards allowed per game UNC (224 for GRIZ vs 217 for UNC)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (149 for GRIZ vs 221 for UNC)
Total defense GRIZ (374 for GRIZ vs 438 for UNC)
First time in a while Montana gets some stats their way on the defensive side. Montana adds 5 while UNC gets just 1.
Offense points scored GRIZ (41.3 for GRIZ vs 14 for UNC)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (30.3 for GRIZ vs 34 for UNC)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+/- 0 for GRIZ / +1 for UNC)
Field goal % GRIZ (71.5% for GRIZ vs 50% for UNC)
Punt Returns GRIZ (8.5 yards for GRIZ vs 6 yards for UNC)
Kick Returns GRIZ (23 yards for GRIZ vs 12 yards for UNC)
T.O.P. UNC (30:36 for GRIZ vs 30:45 for UNC)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (61% GRIZ / 71% UNC)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (71.5% GRIZ / 57% UNC)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (43.8% for GRIZ / 31.2% for UNC)
3rd down defense UNC – (38.5% allowed for GRIZ vs 37% allowed for UNC)
UNC grabs a few, barely, they get TOP by 9 more seconds and 3rd down defense by essentially 1.5% better stop rate. Montana adds a total of 10, UNC adds 2. That puts the total to Montana 15 – UNC 3.
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UNC Players to Watch:
#10 Kia’i Keone, QB – As mentioned in the game by game, Keone seems to have found his footing as QB1 for the Bears and has done better than the team stats suggest. In the 3 games he’s started (Poly / MSU / Weber) he’s passed for 480 yards, 1 TD, and rushed for about 100 yards and 2 TDs. He’s a zone-read / mobile QB in an offense that uses A LOT of pre-snap motion. Fun fact – Keone played for the same high school Kamehameha High School as Keali’i Ah Yat. Keone played his senior year in Utah though and is a grad student now so a little bit of distance between the two.
#88 Brayden Munroe, WR – A 6-2, 200 pound receiver Munroe is the key playmaker in the UNC offense, and special teams. He leads the team by a good margin in receiving with 305 yards and 2 TDs. He also is their primary punt and kick returner, although his numbers so far aren’t much to report (5 yards/punt & 11 yards/kick).
#0 Darius Stewart, RB – One of the two primary running backs this team uses a lot. He has 59 carries, 304 yards, and 2 TDs, just 2 catches for 0 total yards though. He’s 5-9, 195 pounds
#27 Caden Meis, RB – Meis has just 3 less carries than Stewart, he’s got 179 rushing yards and 3 TDs on the season. Of UNC’s rushing game Meis, Stewart, and the QB Keone account for 56% of the team rushing yards.
#40 Cam Chapa, LB – A freshman LB that’s already 2nd on the team in tackles with 38, he has just 0.5 TFLs and he leads the team with 2 interceptions.
#9 Keyvon Lakes, LB – Credit this kid for sticking with this team through the tough times, a 3 year starter he leads the team with 41 tackles, 4 TFLs, and 1 sack – he’s got 1 fumble recovery as well.
#6 Franky Morales, CB – A 5-8 CB that is 3rd on the team in tackles, he’s got 35, he also has a team high 4 pass breakups and 2 TFLs.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
- Don’t let the pre-snap motion get you out of position. Recall NAU’s lone TD on offense was a goofy play with some early motion that got our safeties out of position. UNC is going to be doing a lot of this, it’ll look like what you see from the “Shannahan tree” in the NFL (49ers / Packers / Rams) where they’ll use motion to tip off the defensive set, create mis-matches, and leave open lanes for a read-option type of offense.
- Ground and pound. Hopefully our ground game does what it does best. I’d like to see in excess of 250 rushing from this Grizzly team. Get Gillman, Ostmo, and even X some big numbers and chew up that clock.
- Obviously one thing that killed Weber was turnovers, the Griz cannot play sloppy, and even though UNC doesn’t turn it over much, having a neutral or slightly positive turnover margin will really help keep the game from getting too frantic.
- Keep UNC under 20 points. This Grizzly defense is going to be the death of me I fear. UNC scored 22 in their last second loss to ACU and 21 in their win against Weber. After that they’re not putting a lot on the board. Montana’s defense has to start to show some strength and keep UNC from tallying up big numbers.
- I’d love to see Montana’s return game put some points up. UNC’s stats don’t really suggest they allow much, but it feels kind of overdue for Junior to bust one loose.
- Let’s try to keep UNC broken tackles to a minimum, please.
- UNC’s defense has just 3 sacks this season, hopefully that can continue and the Grizzly OL keeps Fife / Ah Yat clean so they can operate well.
Yes it’s UNC, yes they’ve been historically bad, however they’ve hung around with a few teams this year. They’re not a good team/roster yet but it does appear that Coach Lamb has them playing hard and believing in themselves. I think Montana is going to face a team with renewed energy after their first win and if the Grizzlies aren’t careful they’ll find themselves in a bit more of a fight than they planned for. I doubt this staff is taking UNC for granted, but it still worries me.
At the end of the day though, if Montana is the team we expect them to be, they should pull away and handle the Bears on Saturday. As long as the Grizzly defense doesn’t find themselves too out of position too often I’ll say Montana comes home with a win, 48-17.
Go Griz!
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