IdaGriz01
Well-known member
uch! Seven ranked teams lost yesterday, and four of them were in the Big Sky. Luckily, the pollsters – unlike some on this board – consider the BSC to be one of the top conferences.That should help some.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), #Current Rank
#1 SDSU (5-1) [1]
#2 NDSU (6-1) [2]
#3 Montana State (7-0) [3]
#4 South Dakota (5-1) [4]
#5 Villanova (5-1) [5]
#6 UC Davis (6-1) [6]
#7 Mercer (6-0) [8]
#8 North Dakota (4-2) [9]
#9 SE Missouri State (6-1) [11]
#10 Central Arkansas (5-2) [12]
#11 Idaho (4-3) [7]
#12 Tarleton State (6-1) [13]
#13 Montana (5-2) [14]
#14 Incarnate Word (4-2) [15]
#15 William & Mary (4-2) [17]
#16 Rhode Island (5-1) [19]
#17 Abilene Christian (4-3) [10]
#18 Richmond (4-2) [21]
#19 Chattanooga (3-3) [23]
#20 New Hampshire (4-2) [NR]
#21 ETSU (4-3) [NR]
#22 NC Central (5-2) [25]
#23 Illinois State (2-4) [16]
#24 Florida A&M (3-2) [NR]
#25 Sac State (2-4) [18]
Weber State (3-4) [20]
Lamar (3-3) [22]
Northern Arizona (3-4) [24]
Typically, a loss to a highly ranked opponent results in a drop of three or four spots … I went with four for Idaho because the score was a bit lopsided. That drops the Spuds just out of the Top-10, but I could see them a spot higher.
I was torn by the choice for Abilene Christian, which lost to an unranked opponent with a losing record (2-5). I was a bit worried by the fact that I wanted them to drop enough to allow the Griz to move up. Not to worry: The Wildcats lost to a team whose two wins came against opponents whose collective records are (1-13). The pollsters may punish Abilene Christian even more than my guess.
Illinois State also lost to an unranked opponent, although it’s a special case.. The problem is that (2-4) record, which looks out of place even at #23. In fact, by rights they should probably drop out completely. If Missouri State were eligible (they’re transitioning to FBS Conference USA in 2025), they could fill that spot. FWIW: The Bears have now won four straight since losing to the Griz and an FBS opponent to start the season.
That brings us back to the Big Sky, where Sac State lost to unranked EWU. By my usual formula, I think the Hornets can (barely) keep a spot in the Top-25, but it would not surprise me if they don’t.
With a lost to pitiful NoColo, Weber is surely gone. (What else can you say?)
Some goes for Lamar and Northern Arizona, since they were already pretty low.
That opened up three slots to fill. For one, I simply moved up the top “Others Receiving Vote” in the last poll, Florida A&M. For the other two, I plugged in two teams that have been popular with the pollsters in the past: New Hampshire and East Tennessee State. Both have favorable records and won their games this weekend.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), #Current Rank
#1 SDSU (5-1) [1]
#2 NDSU (6-1) [2]
#3 Montana State (7-0) [3]
#4 South Dakota (5-1) [4]
#5 Villanova (5-1) [5]
#6 UC Davis (6-1) [6]
#7 Mercer (6-0) [8]
#8 North Dakota (4-2) [9]
#9 SE Missouri State (6-1) [11]
#10 Central Arkansas (5-2) [12]
#11 Idaho (4-3) [7]
#12 Tarleton State (6-1) [13]
#13 Montana (5-2) [14]
#14 Incarnate Word (4-2) [15]
#15 William & Mary (4-2) [17]
#16 Rhode Island (5-1) [19]
#17 Abilene Christian (4-3) [10]
#18 Richmond (4-2) [21]
#19 Chattanooga (3-3) [23]
#20 New Hampshire (4-2) [NR]
#21 ETSU (4-3) [NR]
#22 NC Central (5-2) [25]
#23 Illinois State (2-4) [16]
#24 Florida A&M (3-2) [NR]
#25 Sac State (2-4) [18]
Weber State (3-4) [20]
Lamar (3-3) [22]
Northern Arizona (3-4) [24]
Typically, a loss to a highly ranked opponent results in a drop of three or four spots … I went with four for Idaho because the score was a bit lopsided. That drops the Spuds just out of the Top-10, but I could see them a spot higher.
I was torn by the choice for Abilene Christian, which lost to an unranked opponent with a losing record (2-5). I was a bit worried by the fact that I wanted them to drop enough to allow the Griz to move up. Not to worry: The Wildcats lost to a team whose two wins came against opponents whose collective records are (1-13). The pollsters may punish Abilene Christian even more than my guess.
Illinois State also lost to an unranked opponent, although it’s a special case.. The problem is that (2-4) record, which looks out of place even at #23. In fact, by rights they should probably drop out completely. If Missouri State were eligible (they’re transitioning to FBS Conference USA in 2025), they could fill that spot. FWIW: The Bears have now won four straight since losing to the Griz and an FBS opponent to start the season.
That brings us back to the Big Sky, where Sac State lost to unranked EWU. By my usual formula, I think the Hornets can (barely) keep a spot in the Top-25, but it would not surprise me if they don’t.
With a lost to pitiful NoColo, Weber is surely gone. (What else can you say?)
Some goes for Lamar and Northern Arizona, since they were already pretty low.
That opened up three slots to fill. For one, I simply moved up the top “Others Receiving Vote” in the last poll, Florida A&M. For the other two, I plugged in two teams that have been popular with the pollsters in the past: New Hampshire and East Tennessee State. Both have favorable records and won their games this weekend.
… It’s gross even saying that…
