grizband said:
PeauxRouge said:
cmtgrizzly said:
... In the end the only thing that matters is winning the conference tourney, although if the Griz get by conference with 0 (very unlikely), 1 (not likely), or two losses (decent chance) the griz maybe still get an at large. I know this sounds ridiculous but our conference has done well against some perennial NCAA tourney teams and maybe this year the Big Sky gets a little more respect than usual.
The only at large we get if we don't win the conference tourney, even with your scenario, would be NIT at best, but likely CIT or CBI. I'm sorry, I just don't believe it will happen. When was the last time the BSC ever got an at large to the NCAA tourney?
Griz would almost have to go undefeated the entire season to earn an at large from the big sky.
Yep, an at-large bid is extremely unlikely (much as I would love the idea). Barring a major change in how the committees hands out bids, the only way any Big Sky team gets a bid to the Big Dance is to win the conference tourney.
Since 2012,
no conference with an RPI/BPI rank worse than #10-12 has gotten more than one bid to the NCAA championship tournament. Even before that, it was very unlikely. Back in 2012, the Sun Belt was ranked #15 RPI and #20 BPI. Middle Tennessee State, after losing in the conference championship game, did get an NCAA bid. It certainly helped that their record was 28-5 at that point, and their team RPI rank was #28.
In 2011, the Metro Atlantic Conference was ranked #18 RPI and #20 BPI. Iona lost in the conference tourney, giving them a record of 25-7. They got a bid anyway, probably because their team RPI rank was #43. (And, if I’m not mistaken, the pundits had “fallen in love” with Iona as a Cinderella possibility.)
Conversely, there have been four cases where teams won 27 games and still did not get an NCAA bid. All were 27-6 after the conference tourney: Monmouth in 2016, Colorado State* in 2014, and Drexel and Oral Robert† in 2011. Three of the four had team RPI ranks of under 50, and Drexel was at #70. (They did all go to the NIT, FWIW.)
* CSU had 26 D-I wins. † OR had only 24 D-I wins.
Big Sky is currently riding in the 18-21 range as a conference for RPI and BPI. So, while it’s not an impossibility, the chances of an at-large bid are pretty, pretty slim for any BSC team.
If the Griz win out in conference, their record would be 25-5, 23-5 against D-I opponents. If they win the tourney, then there would be no problem. But … if they go 2-1, they’d end up 25-6 versus D-I. Right now, UM is ranked #123 in RPI and #133 for BPI. Playing only Big Sky teams the rest of the way, even if they win all but one game, how much can the Griz “move the needle” on their RPI/BPI? Probably not enough. Conceivably, given some of the teams remaining on the schedule, the Montana RPI/BPI rank could get worse.
So, an at-large bid is not an impossibility, but it’s pretty damned unlikely. Just win, baby!