On October 1st, the day after the Griz beat PSU and improved to 3-2, someone asked me how I thought the Griz would finish out the season. I predicted they'd win 4 of their last 6, with losses at Weber and MSU, and finish 7-4. Though I feel a lot more confident in this team 6 weeks later, I'm going to stand by that prediction and pick the Bobcats over the Griz.
MSU ran for 368 yards against us last year, and I think their running game will once again give us fits and wear us down on defense. I think Murray will throw more than 9 times this year, but I don't see him trying to stretch the field. I think the Bobcats will take a page out of EWU's plan to beat our defense - short passes and screens that turn into big gains. I think our defense will miss a lot of tackles, again, and give up a lot of 3rd down conversions.
Offensively, I think we'll see improvement from last year's disappointing showing, but I also think Gregorak can and will read Stitt/Selle like a book. I think we could have some success with the deep ball, especially if the running game is decent and we can run some play action. MSU's run defense is vulnerable, and I think our chance of a win rises and falls with the running game. I hope we don't abandon it too quickly.
I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Cats prevail in this one:
Bobcats 31
Grizzlies 26