IHateRobPhenicie said:
PlayerRep said:
IHateRobPhenicie said:
Because it was 4th and 11. If they don't get it, they need a stop and a TD just to tie. If they get the 3, a stop and a TD won.
Doesn't matter that it was 4th and 11. If they score the TD then, they can kick extra point and win in OT, or go for 2. If they take FB and don't get stop or don't get TD later, then the game is over and they lost. No one can rely on NDSU making 2 stupid calls in a row, i.e. their passes, and 2 incompletes to stop the clock. I say, at that point of the game, the chances of getting the TD from the 11, are 50%. Based on UM being 6 for 14 for pick ups of 3d and long and 4th and long for the game, or 43%; and our outside and tall receivers were going to catch that ball for the win.
So if they don't get the TD, they are down 7. If they get a stop and get the ball back they can either a) tie it and try their hand at OT or b) go for a high risk 2 point conversion to win. I'll take 3 points and a chance to win with that same TD every time. 4th and 1, I'd feel different.
Let's see it took 7 plays from inside the ten yard line to score aTD , so 50% is a very high number , I see your train of thought on 50% though there is pretty much only two things that happen score or not score , you could through in a pick six which then drops the percentage to 33% for both teams to score !
So, you'd just give up immediate chance of scoring a TD (I say about 50%; some would say a bit less), and take the risk of not getting the ball back in time? Why would you throw away that opportunity to get an immediate TD? Looks like bad odds to me. Worked out this time, tho.
