Which Big Sky Team has the easiest road to the playoffs?

[BWahlberg]

Discussion in the EWU scouting thread got me to looking at the last 4 weeks and what the road ahead looks like for the viable playoff teams in the conference. People are freaking out about this EWU game and what a loss will do to the chances for the Griz and I'm seeing a lot of "they're not taking us if they take UND and Weber and EWU too".

However, take a step back, and look at the last 4 weeks for UM, EWU, Weber, UND, UNC, and NAU

EWU: vs UM / @ Poly / vs ISU / @ PSU
Poly: @ Sac / vs EWU / @ Weber / vs UNC
Weber: @UND / vs NAU / vs Poly / @ISU
UND: vs Weber / @ UNC / vs NAU
NAU: @ Weber / @ UND / vs SUU
UM: @ EWU / vs ISU / @UNC / vs MSU
UNC: @PSU / vs UND / vs UM / @Poly

No one is going unscathed in the next 4 weeks, except possibly EWU. They appear to probably have the best shot to go undefeated in the Big Sky and win the conference title. The other teams with viable chances have a hell of a road to go.

If you break it down as follows, here's the remaining strength of schedule for these teams based on opponents records, this is in order of toughest winning % to easiest:

1. NAU: 14-8 (.640)
2. UNC: 18-11 (.620)
3. UND: 13-9 (.590)
4. Weber: 17-13 (.570)
5. Poly: 16-13 (.550)
6. EWU: 14-14 (.500)
7. UM: 14-16 (.470)

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So lets see how things play out Griz Nation. Obviously a big win tomorrow @ EWU springboards us back into the discussion for a bye. However a loss isn't the end of the line. We have the easiest SoS going forward from there. While all these other guys beat each other up we round out the conference with three teams we'll be favored to beat - and two of which at home.

 

[AllWeatherFan]

Please, spare us the sucrose, Brinty!

Sincerely,

Growler (not one of your minions!)

 

[George Ferguson]

8-3 is a lead pipe.stone cold lock. PERIOD, END OF DISCUSSION. I'll bet paycheck to paycheck on it.

 

[BWahlberg]

8-3 is a lead pipe.stone cold lock. PERIOD, END OF DISCUSSION. I'll bet paycheck to paycheck on it.

I agree. Additionally I'd say this:

7-4 is most likely OUT - despite 7 D1 wins. No quality wins, there'll be plenty of other teams at 8-3 to choose from.

9-2 will be interesting for a bye. The body of work with what would be a great win vs EWU could suggest it, but depending on how much churn happens in the top 25, the Griz may not move into that realm of being one of the top 7 to 8 teams by the end of the season.

 

[George Ferguson]

Totally agree with 7-4 being out this year. Some years, 7-4 would have not only gotten the Griz in but STILL would have played at home. But, the way the Big Sky has unfolded this season, 7-4 won't do it. And it won't do it for Cal Poly or Weber if they fall to 7-4 either.

 

[Grizzly Oredigger]

I was just thinking about this but was too lazy to actually look through each team's remaining schedule. Thanks for the hard work Brint! I think this will all settle itself out. 7-4 ain't cuttin' it for any of these teams. I don't think anyone will be left hanging as bad as UND was last year either.

 

[get'em_griz]

The thing about the playoffs is that no matter what, the Griz will always host a home game in the playoffs even if their record is 7-4. The first round host is determined by a bid, and nobody will ever outbid Montana.

 

['68griz]

The thing about the playoffs is that no matter what, the Griz will always host a home game in the playoffs even if their record is 7-4. The first round host is determined by a bid, and nobody will ever outbid Montana.

This.

 

[BWahlberg]

The thing about the playoffs is that no matter what, the Griz will always host a home game in the playoffs even if their record is 7-4. The first round host is determined by a bid, and nobody will ever outbid Montana.

But... 7-4 has us out of the top 25 and on the wrong side of the bubble. We wouldn't even be considered, IMO.

 

[reinell30]

Easiest road to the playoffs is to win tomorrow and then study next weeks matchup and come out with a win there too. One game at a time. Kick some ass Griz!

 

[get'em_griz]

The thing about the playoffs is that no matter what, the Griz will always host a home game in the playoffs even if their record is 7-4. The first round host is determined by a bid, and nobody will ever outbid Montana.

But... 7-4 has us out of the top 25 and on the wrong side of the bubble. We wouldn't even be considered, IMO.

I was saying if we are in the playoffs at all (even if we were to get in at 7-4), we are pretty much guaranteed to host that first home game, even if our opponent has a better record than us and is also unseeded.

 

[BWahlberg]

The thing about the playoffs is that no matter what, the Griz will always host a home game in the playoffs even if their record is 7-4. The first round host is determined by a bid, and nobody will ever outbid Montana.

But... 7-4 has us out of the top 25 and on the wrong side of the bubble. We wouldn't even be considered, IMO.

I was saying if we are in the playoffs at all (even if we were to get in at 7-4), we are pretty much guaranteed to host that first home game, even if our opponent has a better record than us and is also unseeded.

Oh yeah for sure, but I'd think the odds of us getting in at 7-4 are near impossible

 

[George Ferguson]

Brint, do us all a favor, I don't and won't post on BN. Will you please add to the thread about this subject on BN that Dennis Washington and Gordie Fix don't buy playoff games anymore. Actually, Washington never did in the old format to my knowledge. That post that said Denny can buy the Griz a home game is one of the single dumbest things I've see on that board in a LONGGGGGGG time. The playoffs haven't worked like that in years. The universities submit bids based on potential ticket sales. The games aren't up for sale like they were in the 1AA days.

 

[GrizLA]

Totally agree with 7-4 being out this year. Some years, 7-4 would have not only gotten the Griz in but STILL would have played at home. But, the way the Big Sky has unfolded this season, 7-4 won't do it. And it won't do it for Cal Poly or Weber if they fall to 7-4 either.

The Big Sky is 4 and 4 against the Missouri Valley....

 

[jodcon]

UND should be a lock this time and EWU also unless we pull one out tomorrow and they fall apart afterwards, everybody else has work to do. We SHOULD win out the last 3 weeks and get in even with an EWU loss, however if we go 2-2 for any reason 1000 other things would have to happen to get a spot, which is highly unlikely.

 

[GrizGuy]

Brint, do us all a favor, I don't and won't post on BN. Will you please add to the thread about this subject on BN that Dennis Washington and Gordie Fix don't buy playoff games anymore. Actually, Washington never did in the old format to my knowledge. That post that said Denny can buy the Griz a home game is one of the single dumbest things I've see on that board in a LONGGGGGGG time. The playoffs haven't worked like that in years. The universities submit bids based on potential ticket sales. The games aren't up for sale like they were in the 1AA days.

That's really said over there? Wow. I guess ignorance like that makes 'em feel better.

 

[grizfan406]

I absolutely believe we have to win out to make the playoffs. I definitely think it is possible.
But even then we may not get in.

 

[GraniteGriz80]

We have to win out to make the playoffs.7-4 won't make it in. I for see many of the top teams in the conference with 2 or 3 losses coming. There will be some upsets in the remaining weeks. There always is. We just need to play one week at a time and not take any team for granted.We will be in as long as we take care of business from here on out.

 

[Paytonlives]

I absolutely believe we have to win out to make the playoffs. I definitely think it is possible.
But even then we may not get in.

How long have you followed the FCS?

an 8-3 UM team will be in without a doubt.

 

[RayWill]

I absolutely believe we have to win out to make the playoffs. I definitely think it is possible.
But even then we may not get in.

How long have you followed the FCS?

an 8-3 UM team will be in without a doubt.

Well most of the Bracket-ologists agree. But say that MT would be the last team in. Looking like the only playoff team Griz will of beat, if that happens, is St Francis. The one we all thought was a cupcake in week one. They have went on to show they were something. Every other team of such caliber on MT schedule has already beat MT. Computer ratings has MT at 25. Most likely looking at a home game vs San Diego and if MT wins then a trip to the shed in Fargo to get but whooped once more. Hard to get excited about that at this point. For sure another loss though and MT sits at home for second time in last like 24 years.