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What-If Scenarios

Potomac Griz

Well-known member
So I've been looking at the teams in the Big Sky who still have playoff hopes. Those would be:

EWU, MSU, NAU, UM, SUU and CP.

Who gets into the playoffs in this scenario?

Eastern Washington: 9-3 (7-1)
@CP (L)
PSU (W)

Southern Utah: 9-3 (6-2)
@MSU (W)
NAU (W)

Montana State: 8-4 (6-2)
SUU (L)
UM (W)

Northern Arizona: 8-3 (6-2)
UNC (W)
SUU (L)

Cal Poly: 7-5 (6-2)
EWU (W)
@ UNC (W)

Montana: 9-3 (5-3)
WSU (W)
@MSU (L)

So the Big Sky standings would look like:
1. EWU
2t. SUU
2t. MSU
2t. CP
2t. NAU
6. UM

EWU of course gets in since they win the Big Sky.

Can't leave SUU out... They beat an FBS team, would be 9-3 with wins over NAU and MSU.

Would be hard to leave Cal Poly out even at 7-5 with 2 of their losses being against FBS teams, and one of their wins being against EWU... A win against EWU would be a huge boost to their GPI which is already sort of "on the bubble" for playoffs. They also beat likely-playoff team San Diego. Plus they would have finished tied for 2nd in the Big Sky & finished the season strong.

MSU? Tied for 2nd in the Big Sky with quality wins over NAU, the Griz, and an FBS loss.

NAU get snubbed again like last year when they were 8-3? That wouldn't seem too fair considering one of their losses was an FBS loss. Of course last year they had an FBS win and an FBS loss and still got snubbed. They have quality wins against CP and UM.

Do the Griz get snubbed at 9-3 due to finishing 6th in the Big Sky? They would have a quality win (over CP) but only 1. Wouldn't seem too fair to snub a 9-3 team from one of the major FCS conferences.

I'm not making predictions here, just curious what your thoughts are in this semi-unlikely scenario where 6 teams from the Big Sky might deserve being included in the playoffs.

Feel free to add your own unlikely scenarios too and thoughts. Lots of ways things could play out at the end that create some interesting situations!
 
The Griz might get snubbed in that scenario over MSU but NOT a 7-5 Cal Poly. No way that would happen.

In any event, Montana State will end any chance Southern Utah has of making the playoffs on Saturday. The interesting scenario to me is...SUU loses to MSU but beats NAU on the last day of the season. Does that mean NAU is out and only EWU, UM and MSU go?
 
GRIZFAN20 said:
In that scenario, Griz would beat out Cal Poly.

That's what I'd guess too. They'd need to take 5 teams from the Big Sky still then though which seems like a LOT from one conference. Wonder if they'd do that or if they'd snub another Big Sky team like they did NAU last year.

All 6 teams in that scenario could make a good case for being included though and would likely see it as a snub if they weren't. Yet there's no way at all they'd take 6 teams from one conference.

CP could make a good case that they should be included due to their GPI likely being very good after a win against EWU, 2 of their losses being against FBS teams, and having 2 "quality" wins (EWU and San Diego).

Then again a very strong case could be made for them being left over NAU and the Griz since they lost to the Griz & NAU.
 
All this shit makes my head hurt....I just want the Griz to win and I will see what happens at seasons end....like my dad always used to say, "IF the rabbit wouldn't have stopped to shit, the dog wouldn't have caught him."

Albeit, these scenarios are fun...
 
havgrizfan said:
The Griz might get snubbed in that scenario over MSU but NOT a 7-5 Cal Poly. No way that would happen.

In any event, Montana State will end any chance Southern Utah has of making the playoffs on Saturday. The interesting scenario to me is...SUU loses to MSU but beats NAU on the last day of the season. Does that mean NAU is out and only EWU, UM and MSU go?

That's what I worry about a little. If somehow that unlikely scenario (or a similar one) were to play out... would the Griz be the other snub along with CP leaving EWU, MSU, NAU and SUU in the playoffs. That would suck to get snubbed at 9-3.

What probably will happen though is CP's chances will be over when they lose to EWU this week, SUU will be beaten by the Cats and the scenarios for the Big Sky will go back to whether 3 or 4 teams from the Big Sky get in instead of this 6 team scenario.
 
The BSC should get 1/4 of the total playoff spots. The other conferences are now panty waste. Deal with it FCS and NCAA.
 
This has been discussed over and over again... There is no way in hell that a 9-3 Griz team doesn't make the playoffs, even if they finish the conference technically in 6th place.

This conference really sucks having 13 conference members that don't have to play each and every team. Seriously wish we could add a 14th member, split into two conferences and have the top two from both divisions play for the auto-berth. I think there's a rule against FCS teams stating that a conference can't participate in the playoffs if they have a divisional conference championship game. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
 
Potomac Griz said:
So I've been looking at the teams in the Big Sky who still have playoff hopes. Those would be:

EWU, MSU, NAU, UM, SUU and CP.

Who gets into the playoffs in this scenario?

Eastern Washington: 9-3 (7-1)
@CP (L)
PSU (W)

Southern Utah: 9-3 (6-2)
@MSU (W)
NAU (W)

Montana State: 8-4 (6-2)
SUU (L)
UM (W)

Northern Arizona: 8-3 (6-2)
UNC (W)
SUU (L)

Cal Poly: 7-5 (6-2)
EWU (W)
@ UNC (W)

Montana: 9-3 (5-3)
WSU (W)
@MSU (L)

So the Big Sky standings would look like:
1. EWU
2t. SUU
2t. MSU
2t. CP
2t. NAU
6. UM

EWU of course gets in since they win the Big Sky.

Can't leave SUU out... They beat an FBS team, would be 9-3 with wins over NAU and MSU.

Would be hard to leave Cal Poly out even at 7-5 with 2 of their losses being against FBS teams, and one of their wins being against EWU... A win against EWU would be a huge boost to their GPI which is already sort of "on the bubble" for playoffs. They also beat likely-playoff team San Diego. Plus they would have finished tied for 2nd in the Big Sky & finished the season strong.

MSU? Tied for 2nd in the Big Sky with quality wins over NAU, the Griz, and an FBS loss.

NAU get snubbed again like last year when they were 8-3? That wouldn't seem too fair considering one of their losses was an FBS loss. Of course last year they had an FBS win and an FBS loss and still got snubbed. They have quality wins against CP and UM.

Do the Griz get snubbed at 9-3 due to finishing 6th in the Big Sky? They would have a quality win (over CP) but only 1. Wouldn't seem too fair to snub a 9-3 team from one of the major FCS conferences.

I'm not making predictions here, just curious what your thoughts are in this semi-unlikely scenario where 6 teams from the Big Sky might deserve being included in the playoffs.

Feel free to add your own unlikely scenarios too and thoughts. Lots of ways things could play out at the end that create some interesting situations!

You just scared the hell out of me w/ this post.
 
Portland State at 8-4 with a win over EWU could be added in to the what if scenarios very easily to .
 
And should MSU lose to both SUU and UM...at 7-5 / 6-3...well in the words of Bob Dylan, "you ain't a goin' nowhere."
 
I think I have a better chance of getting struck by lightening on the day I win the Power Ball lottery than this sequence of scenarios happening.
 
catsack said:
Portland State at 8-4 with a win over EWU could be added in to the what if scenarios very easily to .

Portland state at best would have 6 D1 wins, so I don't think they have much of a shot. I know the lower division wins count for something this year, but when up against 6 other teams from the Big Sky (in the above scenario) with 7+ D1 wins it's unlikely they'd squeak in.

ordigger said:
I think I have a better chance of getting struck by lightening on the day I win the Power Ball lottery than this sequence of scenarios happening.

Probably true, but you are free to add your own scenario :) I asked because it would create an interesting situation with 6 teams who might deserve to be in the playoffs. There are a few more scenarios where it'd create an interesting situation with way too many top teams causing at least one to be likely snubbed that deserved a playoff look. The more likely scenarios probably only have 4 that have enough wins to get in...which still could lead to some team getting snubbed.
 
dont be scared cuz each one is possible but for all of em to happen is a gazillion to 1


GRZFTBL said:
Potomac Griz said:
So I've been looking at the teams in the Big Sky who still have playoff hopes. Those would be:

EWU, MSU, NAU, UM, SUU and CP.

Who gets into the playoffs in this scenario?

Eastern Washington: 9-3 (7-1)
@CP (L)
PSU (W)

Southern Utah: 9-3 (6-2)
@MSU (W)
NAU (W)

Montana State: 8-4 (6-2)
SUU (L)
UM (W)

Northern Arizona: 8-3 (6-2)
UNC (W)
SUU (L)

Cal Poly: 7-5 (6-2)
EWU (W)
@ UNC (W)

Montana: 9-3 (5-3)
WSU (W)
@MSU (L)

So the Big Sky standings would look like:
1. EWU
2t. SUU
2t. MSU
2t. CP
2t. NAU
6. UM

EWU of course gets in since they win the Big Sky.

Can't leave SUU out... They beat an FBS team, would be 9-3 with wins over NAU and MSU.

Would be hard to leave Cal Poly out even at 7-5 with 2 of their losses being against FBS teams, and one of their wins being against EWU... A win against EWU would be a huge boost to their GPI which is already sort of "on the bubble" for playoffs. They also beat likely-playoff team San Diego. Plus they would have finished tied for 2nd in the Big Sky & finished the season strong.

MSU? Tied for 2nd in the Big Sky with quality wins over NAU, the Griz, and an FBS loss.

NAU get snubbed again like last year when they were 8-3? That wouldn't seem too fair considering one of their losses was an FBS loss. Of course last year they had an FBS win and an FBS loss and still got snubbed. They have quality wins against CP and UM.

Do the Griz get snubbed at 9-3 due to finishing 6th in the Big Sky? They would have a quality win (over CP) but only 1. Wouldn't seem too fair to snub a 9-3 team from one of the major FCS conferences.

I'm not making predictions here, just curious what your thoughts are in this semi-unlikely scenario where 6 teams from the Big Sky might deserve being included in the playoffs.

Feel free to add your own unlikely scenarios too and thoughts. Lots of ways things could play out at the end that create some interesting situations!

You just scared the hell out of me w/ this post.
 
ordigger said:
I think I have a better chance of getting struck by lightening on the day I win the Power Ball lottery than this sequence of scenarios happening.
So, you are saying there really is a chance. I gotta love an optimist.
 
Buttegrizzle said:
And should MSU lose to both SUU and UM...at 7-5 / 6-3...well in the words of Bob Dylan, "you ain't a goin' nowhere."

Probably best case scenario for them at this point; it'd allow them to avoid another humiliation on national TV.
 
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