Commentary
South Dakota State has looked so impressive, it’s hard to pick against them, especially at home. Still, North Dakota is a tough team too. Their only loss was to FBS Boise State, which seems to be getting their act together.
South Dakota at NDSU is another game that is hard to pick as an upset, although we must keep in mind that the Yotes' only loss was to FBS Missouri. And it is the MVFC, after all, so this is definitely a candidate for “on any given Saturday.”
Although Elon did have a bad road loss at Gardner Webb, they didn’t lose that badly at FBS Wake Forest (which actually looks competitive this year, BTW). Their two wins look quite respectable and, in fact, tie them for the current lead in the CAA. Meanwhile, we cannot say that W&M has really been tested. Plus, the fact that Elon is at home improves the odds for an upset.
Early games involving an Ivy school are always a tough pick because you just don’t have enough results. As usual, Harvard looks pretty good. But we just don’t know. Conversely, the Crusaders have played nobody outside of their loss to weak FBS Boston College. Their three wins have been against opponents that have no wins at the D-I level. (One against an NAIA equivalent.) (This could be one of my picks
.)
Campbell is “the new kid on the block” in the CAA so it’s difficult to judge the strength of their program. Their two losses were respectable and they scored a lot of points in their two wins. Of course, we also do not know how competitive NC Central really is. They got blown out by their FBS opponent, and one of their wins was over a mid-level D-II team. Neither opponent in their other two wins have won a game (one was perennial loser Mississippi Valley State).
Be aware that that Albany’s two losses were both on the road at FBS venues. Not particularly strong FBS opponents … and the Danes did not get blown out. So their record is misleading. Villanova looks good and has earned their ranking (the loss was to an FBS opponent). Still, Albany is better than their record shows, and they are at home.
Tennessee State is undefeated at the FCS level (blown out by FBS Notre Dame). Their wins were respectable and, at the moment, they lead this new Big South-OVC “conference” thing. Of course, UT Martin also got blown out by their FBS opponent (Georgia
). Plus, it has to be said that the Skyhawks have not played any FCS contenders. On that basis, this could be a pickum’.
Bryant (2-2) seems like an unlikely candidate to upset Rhode Island. Their schedule hasn’t been that tough, except for their loss to FBS UNLV. On the other hand, the Rhodies haven’t beat anybody impressive, and were dominated by Villanova.
