Commentary
The “Battle of South Dakota” is the only ranked-vs-ranked matchup for this week’s poll. What else needs to be said?
The Northern Iowa at Illinois State game matches two teams with identical records. Of course, when you “look under the hood,” the Panther’s record is a bit more impressive than that of the Redbirds. One of Northern Iowa’s losses was at Iowa State. Still, while both lost to SDSU, UNI got pummeled while I-State hung with the ‘Jacks after the first quarter (at home). Since the Redbirds are at home for this one, I think they have a very credible chance for a win.
Mercer has been “flying under the radar” recently, having not received any poll votes for several weeks. But they seem like a solid team, with some good wins. (Like Western Carolina, one of their losses was to an FBS opponent.) Of course, the Catamounts will likely be still stinging from their loss to Furman. Or will they be bummed by the loss and not quite ready to play? That’s why you play the game.
As has been pointed out on here, Incarnate Word is not the powerhouse they were last year. Yes, their only loss was to an FBS team. However, they have not played any other strong teams, and had to stage a major comeback on Saturday to beat winless McNeese. Lamar’s three losses were to an FBS opponent and two ranked FCS teams (Idaho and South Dakota). Lamar and Inc Word both beat their one common opponent (SE Louisiana) by about the same margin. I look for this to be a highly competitive game, and home field advantage could tip it Lamar’s way.
Tarleton State at Central Arkansas has some backstory that could make this game a barnburner. The Texans aren’t ranked and have hardly received any poll votes, but except for a flukey last-second play and a tough overtime road loss, they would be unbeaten in FCS play. (Their other loss was to FBS Texas Tech.) Other than that, they and the Bears seem very evenly matched.
Under normal circumstances, I probably would not include the Georgetown - Lafayette game. But Georgetown has been so bad, for so long in football, I thought I’d offer them up as a chance. (The last time the Hoyas won four games in a season was 2019.) Georgetown did substantially better in beating one of their common opponents … and they are at home. For motivation, a Georgetown win could at least tie them for the lead in the Patriot League. With a Holy Cross loss (see below), they’d be in the lead by themselves.
Speaking of Holy Cross, I included their game at Fordham because it shapes up to be a highly competitive matchup, despite the fact that neither is currently ranked. (FYI: The Crusader’s “extra” loss was by a FG at Boston College.) Holy Cross has played a somewhat tougher schedule than Fordham, but that should be at least partly offset by the fact that the Rams are at home. Another reason to include this game is the situation at the top of the Patriot League. Current League standings are: Lafayette (2-0), Holy Cross (2-1), Georgetown (2-1), and Fordham (1-1). If Fordham wins (going to 2-1), they jump ahead of Holy Cross, which would fall to (2-2). A Holy Cross win takes them to (3-1). The related point of interest involves the Lafayette game. If (a big if, admittedly) Georgetown pulls off the upset, Lafayette would also drop to (2-1) in conference. Georgetown would go to (3-1) and lead the conference, or be tied with Holy Cross. So what? Keep in mind that the seven-team Patriot League gets an auto-bid to the playoffs, just like some conferences we know that have almost twice as many members.
) ... then you better hurry because that one starts at 10:30.