Upset Guesses (Oct 27)

[IdaGriz01]

Next Saturday there are five ranked-vs-ranked matchups. One of those involves the Big Sky (#4 Weber State at #22 North Dakota), but that still leaves four solid choices for the poll. Then we have several ranked teams that are playing opponents that have winning records or some other advantage.

All as usual: Three choices if you want, can change them later, and no Big Sky matchups.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Comments:
Unranked Incarnate Word being on the road at #20 Nicholls is very interesting … first, because the teams have identical records. I-Word could have a let-down after their pounding of (then) #6 McNeese. But they’ve been playing solid ball and could be sky-high to pull off another upset.

Murray State is at home and undefeated in the OVC … and this year’s version of Jacksonville State has shown that they can be beat. Not sure that game should even count as an “upset,” even though the pollsters have ignored the Racers.

Not sure anyone in the Big South can stop Kennesaw State, but Charles Southern might have a chance at home.

“On paper,” the Mercer-Wofford game does not look promising for an upset (and probably isn’t). However, the Bears have been up and down all year, showing some flashes of solid football. And Wofford could be looking ahead to their next game …at Samford, which has beaten them for the last three years.

I hesitated on the UNI game since they seem like they’re on a mission. But, as we know, Western Illinois is tough at home (more: two of its three wins were at home, three of its four losses were on the road).

 

[IdaGriz01]

Hmmm ... no clear consenus, except that Charleston Southern and Mercer have no chance. Oh, and: Bobcats Suck!

 

[AZDoc]

I went Delaware and I Word

 

[CatGrad-UMGradStu]

I took Western Illinois, Mercer and Illinois State. The weather is supposed to be rainy for the Mercer-Wofford game last I checked and that causes a lot of problems with the option Wofford runs. Dry field and all bets are off in that one.

 

[AllWeatherFan]

Hopefully Western Illinois dashes Northern Iowa's playoff hopes.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Hopefully Western Illinois dashes Northern Iowa's playoff hopes.

Most teams are about halfway through their conference schedules. So, as you might expect, we’re into a stretch where every game has some championship/playoff implications.

UNI is the only team in the MVFC with just one conference loss (NDSU is undefeated), and there are six teams with (2-2) conference records !!. Three of those already have 4 losses overall. As we have seen, it’s not that uncommon for a Missouri Valley team to get into the playoffs with four losses. But that still means quite a few teams are already on the slippery slope out of contention.

Towson is currently the only undefeated team in the CAA. Delaware, Elon, James Madison, Maine, and Stony Brook each have one loss. Realistically, Towson seems very unlikely to remain undefeated in conference: After Delaware, they get Maine, Elon, and (in the final game) JMU. On the other hand, each of the one-loss team in the CAA play two other teams from that one-loss list over the next three or four games. So from here on out, just about every game in the top-tier CAA can be viewed as “make or break.”

Incarnate Word, Central Arkansas and McNeese are all 4-1 in conference, Nicholls is 3-2. Every other team in the conference has at least three losses. With its tie-breaker over McNeese, I-Word badly needs to win because it must still play Central Arkansas. Bottom line: nothing is settled in the Southland.

Both Kennesaw State and Chas Southern are undefeated in conference. So this game could go a long way towards deciding the conference champion and auto-bid. (K-State is the only Big South team to have even a sniff at an at-large bid.)

 

[IdaGriz01]

Bump.

Still time to get your votes in (or change them if you've heard something).