Discussion
Does Youngstown State have a chance at NDSU? They have some good wins, but lost to an FBS and the good MVFC opponents. I would not pick them, but I guess we’ll find out.
Can Abilene Christian compete on their home turf with Tarleton State? Hard to say, since Abilene’s record is weighed down by two losses to FBS opponents. However, the Wildcats have played a much tougher FCS schedule, including two wins over ranked teams. Tarleton has been cruising off their early upset of Army. Beyond that, they have not played a single ranked FCS opponent. They both pummeled their one common opponent, West Georgia. Given the Wildcats’ tougher schedule and the fact that they’re at home, I give Abilene Christian a decent chance for an upset.
Austin Peay at Southern Utah looks like a mismatch because of the comparative records. But the details tell a different story. Austin Peay has been coasting in the polls based on their opening-game “upset” of FBS Middle Tennessee. Turns out, however, MTSU is a wretched (1-6) team. The Governors won enough to stay in the top-25, but they only played one ranked team (they lost). Southern Utah opened with a home win over Idaho State, then suffered five straight losses. But three of those losses were to ranked FCS teams. All were relatively close games, three by a FG (one in OT versus NAU). They have two opponents in common with Austin Peay: Both thumped on Utah Tech, while the Thunderbirds beat Abilene Christian and the Governors lost. So who’s the real underdog?
Rio Grand Valley is very much the “new kid on the block,” having been part of FCS for only two or three years. The record for the Vaqueros is skewed by the fact that they have not yet cleared their schedule of D-II opponents. Oddly enough, however, they share a common D-II opponent with the Lumberjacks: Both crushed Sul Ross State by over 60 points. They also share Incarnate Word as an opponent: RGV beat the Cardinals in a home game by 28 points, while SFA won on the road by 14. Those results suggest that the Vaqueros should not be taken lightly. In fact, their only two losses were to ranked FCS teams
As has been pointed out elsewhere, the Dartmouth–Harvard rivalry goes way back. Oddly enough at this point in the season, they do not yet share any common opponents. Does that matter? In a rivalry game like this, probably not.
Gardner-Webb tends to “fly under the radar,” because they have not been competitive until recently. It hasn’t helped that they play at least one, and sometimes three money games every year. This year, two of their losses were against FBS opponents … so count them as (5-1). Count Tennessee Tech (as 7-0) because they have one win against an NAIA opponent. The two have two opponents in common, and both won those games. Although the Bulldogs haven’t made it into the top-25, they have been receiving votes from the pollsters. Bottom line: This could be a lot more competitive than first impressions might indicate.
Georgetown is another team that flies under the radar because they’ve been so bad, historically, in football. This year is different, and could have already been very different. The Hoyas have already matched the most wins per year they’ve had in the last decade. They started the season with two decent wins. Then they had a three-game losing streak. It’s hard to be sure without doing more digging than I care to give it, but that might have been due to a rash of key injuries. They’ve since righted the ship and have won three straight. Their most recent win was on the road at Bucknell. That was a common opponent for Lehigh, who also (obviously) beat them. Is that three-win momentum enough to lift the Hoyas over Lehigh? Seems unlikely, but not at all out of the question.
Mercer has had an interesting season, and obviously a very successful one so far. Still, just so you know, they were losing to UC Davis midway through the 4th quarter when officials halted the game due to lightning, and eventually ruled it a “no contest.” Oddly enough, both teams lost early in the season to Presbyterian, Furman by a point in overtime. The two have three opponents in common: The Bears won at home by a point over Wofford, while the Paladins lost to the Terriers on the road. Both pummeled Samford and ETSU. From what little we know of the two, I’d say they are fairly evenly matched. It will be no surprise if Furman manages an upset playing at home.
The North vs South Dakota game may come down to whether or not home field advantage will be enough for the Coyotes to pull off the upset. No help from a comparison of common opponents since both beat Indiana State and UNI. The Hawks lost to an FBS and the Griz, so we know about them. The ‘Yotes lost to an FBS and NDSU … and two others. But this is the MVFC, and I would not bet against an upset by South Dakota at home.
