Commentary
South Dakota State at NDSU is clearly the marquee matchup for next weekend … a bona fide heavyweight fight. ‘Nuf said.
Elon at Rhode Island could be another good matchup. However, it’s equally likely that this will be a “referendum” on the pollsters’ making Rhode Island a top-25 team. Overall, Elon has played the tougher schedule compared to the Rams … including three solid wins in the CAA. Their only loss was the opening game at Vanderbilt. The Rhodies split their CAA games, with a loss to ranked Delaware. (Their other loss was at Pittsburgh.) Still, the fact that the game is at Rhode Island should be a plus for them.
Villanova at Richmond promises to be a good one between two teams that seem to be evenly matched. They have a common opponent in Lehigh: Richmond drubbed them 45-17, Villanova by 30-6. Each has a loss at an FBS opponent. Despite the home-field advantage, I’d give a slight edge to Richmond because their other loss was to ranked Elon by only a field goal. Edit: Just discovered that Villanova is on the road at Richmond. That, IMO, raises the likelihood of an upset.
Sam Houston State at Eastern Kentucky could be a weird one. EKent is clearly a strong team. But after a rocky start, including a loss at Texas A&M, the Bearcats have put together back-to-back wins. I wouldn’t say an upset is highly likely, but included the game because I see a SHSU win as very possible.
Western Carolina at Furman is another weird one. When you check the records, these two teams do not look all that different. Each has lost to an FBS opponents, and to (ranked) Samford. The Paladins hung closer against Samford, but they were at home whereas Western was on the road. They both won road games at Charleston Southern, with the Catamounts winning more decisively (two touchdowns versus 5 points for Furman). Western’s “extra” loss was to conference leader (and ranked) Mercer, while Furman won against The Citadel (1-4). Despite the relative parity, Western has received zero poll votes, while Furman has been noticed every week, and even come close to the top-25. I see this game as more of “pickum,” with the Paladins maybe having a slight home field advantage,
The Stephen F. Austin at Tarleton game highlights another blind spot for the pollsters. The Lumberjacks get to be the “favorite” because they have regularly received votes in the STATS poll. Tarleton … zilch. Granted, the Texans are not yet eligible for the FCS playoffs, but that hasn’t stopped the pollsters before. Neither team has played a powerhouse schedule outside their FBS money game losses. (And each has one win over a non Division-I opponent.) We have only seen highlights of any Tarleton games, but they do look like they have some players. Since Tarleton is at home, SFA better not take them lightly.
Southern Utah (3-3) at Abilene Christian (4-2) is another example of the pollsters at work (or not) … they actually gave the Wildcats some votes in the last poll. While the game is largely meaningless to anyone outside their fan bases, recall that both of these teams are in the running for the ASUN-WAC auto-bid to the FCS playoffs. In fact, Abilene Christian is currently tied for that spot. Neither has played a strong schedule outside their FBS money games. Their one common opponent was Utah Tech (you know, the former Dixie State). SUU won at home 31-17, while AC won on the road 26-10.
