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Upset Guesses (Oct 13)

Where are the upsets?

  • #21 Maine (3-2) at #16 Rhode Isl (4-1)

    Votes: 8 33.3%
  • Delaware (3-2) vs #5 Elon (4-1)

    Votes: 7 29.2%
  • W Carolina (3-2) vs Chattanooga (4-2)

    Votes: 2 8.3%
  • Villanova (3-3) vs #6 JMU (4-2)

    Votes: 7 29.2%
  • Furman (1-3) vs #6 Wofford (4-1)

    Votes: 2 8.3%
  • No Iowa (2-3) at #24 South Dakota (3-2)

    Votes: 14 58.3%
  • Indiana St (0-2,2-3) vs Mizzu St (1-1, 3-2)

    Votes: 1 4.2%
  • Cent Conn (1-0, 3-3) at Bryant (2-0, 4-1)

    Votes: 1 4.2%
  • Bobcats Suck (per "Rule")

    Votes: 18 75.0%

  • Total voters
    24

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Avoiding Big Sky games for this poll is a special problem this week since there are several crucial conference games coming up. Beyond that, this week is difficult because there is only one other ranked-vs-ranked matchup and not many credible upset chances. (Obviously, unlikely upsets happen, but those are generally impossible to predict.) That’s why I’ve stated my rationale for including a game on the list:
The Maine-RI matchup is obviously the “marque” matchup for tomorrow, with both being ranked. So that was an easy call.

The Elon at Delaware tilt has all the earmarks of a “trap” game, with the Phoenix coming off their big upset of James Madison. And Delaware is at home, where they can be tough.

Since neither Western Carolina nor Chattanooga are ranked, I had to go with the overall records to choose a favorite. Normally, an upset would seem pretty unlikely, but the Mocs have been up and down all year.

Villanova is out of the hunt in the conference and would need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. It’s double stretch that JMU would lose two in a row. So ‘Nova’s only remaining motivation has to be as “spoiler” and they are at home.

With its 1-4 record, Furman seems like an unlikely candidate to upset #6 Wofford, but they are at home, and they’ve had a week off to prepare. They need this game and then to win out to have even a sniff of a playoff spot (where they went two deep last year).

On paper, the UNI game at South Dakota also seems unlikely for an upset. However, the ‘Yotes did struggle some (at home) against Missouri State … and it’s desperation time for the Leathernecks. They simply cannot afford another loss.

It is equally desperation time for Indiana State and Missouri State, and especially for I-State. Both teams would need a run starting from here to have even an outside shot at a playoff bid.

I would not normally include a game from the feeble Northeast Conference, but there’s one that could be crucial. Both teams are currently undefeated in conference, so the winner will have a huge leg up on the final auto-bid.

Three votes (if desired) allowed, and you can change them later.
 
Interesting evening ... watching the Elon upset of James Madison. With differences in detail, we felt like we were looking at mirror images. That is, both teams played hard-nosed "contain" defense between the 20s while the offenses played mostly ball control with the occasional "stretch the field" play. Only at "crunch time" did Elon go to a mostly-pass attack. So Elon ended up with 498 yards of offense, JMU with 419. Yet with over 900 yards of total offense between them, the final score was just 27-24. Between them, the teams tried 8 Field Goals: JMI was 4 for 4, Elon 2 for 4.

So the questio is: Does Villanova, playing at home, have the defense to "bend but not break" on D while the O scores enough points for the upset? We'll find out tomorrow.
 
Hmmm ... wonder how many people really think UNI can upset #24 South Dakota versus how many are just hoping. :)
 
My only comment here on the Griz loss is that we all (pretty much) knew UND was a good team.

But elsewhere, the rest of the FCS was just crazy. Of the eight matchups I posted, five ended up as upsets. And some of those were unexpected, to say the least. Yes, the Maine at Rhode Island was close, so that was not a huge surprise (and several people picked it, including me). Almost as many people picked the Delaware upset of Elon … but I wonder how many thought the Blue Hens would win so decisively? The top upset vote-getter was UNI over South Dakota, which did happen. But how many of those votes were “hopes” rather than “belief”?

There were only 2 votes for Furman (1-3) to beat #6 Wofford, and that game wasn’t even close (34-14 Furman). And I was the only one to pick the Central Connecticut (3-3) win at Bryant (4-1).

The notion that Abilene Christian (2-4) might upset #11 Nicholls (4-2) seemed so unlikely, I didn’t even include it in the poll. But the final score was 28-12, AC.

Finally, in the Big Sky: How many people would have picked Weber to win … and in a low-scoring game?

All told, eight of the top-25 teams lost, and five of those were in the top-11. Like I said … Crazy!
 
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