Upset Guesses, Nov 9

[IdaGriz01]

This time of the season is often “all or nothing” – several ranked-vs ranked matchups, or a lot of good (ranked) teams feasting on the bottom half of their conferences. This weekend is one of the weak ones. Outside the Big Sky, we have only one ranked-vs-ranked game, and many ranked teams are playing opponents with losing records. I finally settled for some where the opponent is at least 50-50.

As usual in the past, the team on the left is the underdog that might pull off the upset.

You are allowed two choices, and you can change your vote later if you want to.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Commentary
The Abilene Christian at Tarletan State Game will determine the leader in the loss column for the United Athletic Conference. This will complete the season for the Wildcats, and clinch – with the tie-breaker – the championship and auto-bid. The Texans have one more conference game … against Central Arkansas. If they were to beat the Wildcats but then lose to the Bears, I have no clue how the tie-breakers might work among various two-loss teams.

With a win at Stephen F. Austin, Incarnate Word can clinch the Southland championship and auto-bid. It looks like even a loss and a win by SE Louisiana would put them in because they have the tie-breaker over SELA. That and home-field advantage might be enough to fuel an upset by the Lumberjacks.

The Stony Brook at New Hampshire game is mostly about positioning for at-large bids out of the CAA. Stony probably needs to win this and against its final opponent (Monmouth) to be sure of an at-large bid, It simply does not have the “history” to count on getting in otherwise … too many teams ahead of them in the CAA. And New Hampshire would be gone with another loss.

Who really know which is the underdog in the game between Missouri State and North Dakota State? Here, I’m going with the two-loss team.

The game between Southern Utah and Central Arkansas is interesting in two ways. First, the Bears have been highly ranked all season, whereas the Thunderbirds have only recently got any poll votes at all. But Southern Utah has come on strong after a slowish start. Conversely, the Bears start fairly strong but have since tailed off… including now a two-game losing streak.

On the records, Pennsylvania has little chance against Harvard, even at home. Yet there are glimmers. For one, the Quakers actually beat the team (Brown) that gave Harvard its one loss. They also won against Cornell by exactly the same margin as the Crimson. On other two common opponents, Penn lost by only a field goal and by two FGs.

 

[HikeGlacier]

This time of the season is often “all or nothing” – several ranked-vs ranked matchups, or a lot of good (ranked) teams feasting on the bottom half of their conferences. This weekend is one of the weak ones. Outside the Big Sky, we have only one ranked-vs-ranked game, and many ranked teams are playing opponents with losing records. I finally settled for some where the opponent is at least 50-50.

As usual in the past, the team on the left is the underdog that might pull off the upset.

You are allowed two choices, and you can change your vote later if you want to.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!

Why isn't the MSU at Davis game on the list?

 

[armonte]

Is Vidlak back playing at SFA?

 

[IdaGriz01]

Why isn't the MSU at Davis game on the list?

Because I almost never put Big Sky games in the poll ... waste of a choice since the voting results are so predictable. (See previous explanations.)

 

[IdaGriz01]

Is Vidlak back playing at SFA?

You tell me, 'cause they're not saying one way or another. The pre-game did mention, briefly, stats for the backup QB ... perhaps that's a hint.

 

[armonte]

You tell me, 'cause they're not saying one way or another. The pre-game did mention, briefly, stats for the backup QB ... perhaps that's a hint.

I couldn't find it either.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Just for fun, I considered putting the Mercer – Alabama game on the poll, but decided not to. Good thing ... I hadn't caught it, but the Bears have already clinched the SoCon championship and the auto-bid. Be interesting to see who (if any) gets an at-large bid out of the SoCon.

 

[oldngrizzly]

other than NDSU the grizz would kick all these teams ass. As we now know that is even with AH YAT as the #1 QB and the griz are not championship caliber

 

[IdaGriz01]

other than NDSU the grizz would kick all these teams ass. As we now know that is even with AH YAT as the #1 QB and the griz are not championship caliber

Have to agree on point one, and willing to consider point two.

My problem, as mentioned at the beginning, was that the stronger ranked teams are playing cupcakes. Example: #15 Rhode Island is playing (at home) against Albany (3-7). Good luck with that. I considered #11 Richmond at Hampton (5-5), but, even with home-field advantage, had to give that up.

 

[armonte]

You tell me, 'cause they're not saying one way or another. The pre-game did mention, briefly, stats for the backup QB ... perhaps that's a hint.

Vidlak suffered a shoulder injury in the fourth quarter against Nicholls.
“He’s with our training staff,” Carthel said. “They’re working on him. It’s his non-throwing shoulder, which is good but he wasn’t able to play this past week. I hope to get him back as soon as possible.”
Might be available this week.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Vidlak suffered a shoulder injury in the fourth quarter against Nicholls.
“He’s with our training staff,” Carthel said. “They’re working on him. It’s his non-throwing shoulder, which is good but he wasn’t able to play this past week. I hope to get him back as soon as possible.”
Might be available this week.

This sort of thing drives people who bet on games crazy. With Vidlak, even somewhat hampered, they at least have a chance to win ... Incarnate Word is not as dominant as they've been in recent year. I'd say no chance without him .. big drop-off with backup.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Hmmm ... Still no votes for Penn (at home) over Harvard. Usually by now someone enters a WAG on the biggest underdog.