Commentary
As mentioned above, many ranked teams face weak opposition this week. For example, #10 Mercer plays at VMI (1-8). Meanwhile, #12 Villanova gets North Carolina A&T (1-8) at home. The Aggies only win was at home over a D-II … and they had to go into overtime for that ☺. Of course, ruling those out means we miss stunning upsets like Utah Tech (1-9) over #11 Central Arkansas. But … so be it.
For our first poll choice, the question is: Can North Dakota right the ship, playing at home? That begs the question: Do the Hawks even deserve to be in the Top-25? Guess we’ll find out.
The main interest in the Robert Morris game at Duquesne is that winner will have sole possession of the lead in the Northeast Conference. BFD? Do recall that, as pathetic as the NEC is, its champion still gets an auto-bid to the FCS playoffs. To my knowledge, no NEC has ever won a playoff game.
With two relatively easy conference games to go, Mercer will most likely win the SoCon championship and auto-bid. Thus, neither team in the Western Carolina – East Tennessee matchup can afford another loss. In fact, it’s always a question whether or not any four-loss team from the SoCon will get an at-large bid.
Central Arkansas is another team that can’t afford a loss when they play Eastern Kentucky. Utah Tech loss story: top rusher out due to injury, six turnovers, two inside their own 15 yard line, another at their 29. Right now, Abilene Christian (6-3) and Tarleton State (7-2) lead the United Athletic Conference … then it gets complicated. First, AC and Tarleton play each other in two weeks, then Central Arkansas plays Tarleton in their final game. Too messy to pick apart, but it means this game is absolutely crucial for the Bears.
At the moment, three teams are tied for the lead in the Ivy, and Columbia and Harvard are two of them. The third conf 3-1, team, Dartmouth, plays Princeton (2-5), so they should be able to keep pace with the winner. As I recall, the Ivy goes with co-champions, so tie-breakers don’t matter … unless they really join the FCS (if they do).
The Rhode Island at Delaware game is here to give people the chance to pick against the move-upper. And I give the Rhodies a credible chance.
Incarnate Word seems to have a solid grip on the Southland championship and auto-bid. Lamar, with four losses already, is another team that would lose even an outside chance (distant, at that) for an at-large bid.
