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Upset Guesses (Nov 23)

Where are the upsets?

  • #21 UNH (6-4) vs #4 Maine (10-1)

    Votes: 20 37.0%
  • #16 SDSU (7-4) at #15 YSU (8-3)

    Votes: 13 24.1%
  • Tenn-Martin (7-4) vs #2 E Illin (10-1)

    Votes: 3 5.6%
  • Cent Arkansas (6-5) vs #9 SHSU (8-3)

    Votes: 9 16.7%
  • Lafayette (4-6) at #17 Lehigh (8-2)

    Votes: 3 5.6%
  • Liberty (7-4) at #18 Chas So (10-2)

    Votes: 6 11.1%

  • Total voters
    54

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Only two games coming up between ranked teams. Some of the others seem pretty one-sided ... but virtually every game I’ve selected has some sort of playoff implication (just as you’d expect at this point).

Maine has the CAA locked up, win or lose, but New Hampshire must win if they hope for an at-large bid. (No guarantee they get one even if they win ... but I’m thinking they do.)

The game between Youngstown State and South Dakota State is probably make-or-break for both teams. My guess is the loser stays home at playoff time. SDSU, with five losses, certainly would. YSU would be 8-4 if they lost and might have an outside chance. But I suspect a loss to close the season would be a killer when the committee started comparing 8-4 teams.

Tennessee-Martin must win to get into that 8-4 conversation, while Eastern Illinois already has its bid. I, personally, do not think even a win gets T-M a bid, but they certainly have no chance with a loss.

Central Arkansas, which already has five losses, is playing for pride and can hope to spoil the chance that Sam Houston State gets an at-large bid. And The Sports Network, at least, thinks an 8-4 SHSU would not get a bid, so they are going to be pretty desperate for a win.

The Lafayette-Lehigh game could hardly have anything higher at stake: The winner gets the Patriot League automatic bid. The loser stays home -- no one sees an 8-3 Lehigh getting a bid.

And finally, Charleston Southern must beat Liberty to secure the Big South auto-bid. Coastal Carolina (4-1 in conference) has completed league play (they have a body-bag game with BCS #11 South Carolina). A Chas So win gives them the same conference record, and they have the tie-breaker over Coastal.
 
I can't say I'm really surprised at all the votes for UNH over Maine. It's a must-win for New Hampshire, which has not lost at home this year. In fact, they've lost only three home games in the last four seasons. On the other hand, Maine is still using a slap in the pre-season poll (picked to finish 8th in the CAA) as motivation.
http://www.pressherald.com/news/UMaine_football_ranked_4th_in_nation_.html?pagenum=1

And they want that home field thing:
Glenn Jordan said:
The Black Bears are almost assured of one of eight byes in the 24-team playoffs, which begin Nov. 30th, and submitted bids to the NCAA Monday afternoon to host as many as three December playoff games, something never before seen in Orono.
The UNH coach called it for his team in an interview:
And, there ain’t no next (game) for anybody from the University of New Hampshire, because there’s no (playoff) guarantee. Maine has a next one.
Oh, and BTW, they’re playing for something called the “Brice-Cowell Musket,” a flintlock built by a Maine gunsmith before the Revolutionary War.
 
I think UNH is going to upset Maine, mostly because it's a home game. But I went with Liberty over Charleston Southern. With the expanded 24-team playoff, I didn't anticipate quite so much debate about the field, but this weekend is loaded with important games.
 
I went with Central Arkansas/SHSU. With Bell out I think they're gonna run into trouble. Bell is a pretty good athlete and leader. Although Flanders can still run wild I see CA shutting them down.
My question is, how did Lehigh get into a shoot out with Monmouth and skim out of it? Monmouth. Monmouth had a close one with Sacred Heart (10-2) also. Did they just forget to show up in Bozo or is that their conference strength?
 
OldtiredGRiz said:
I think UNH is going to upset Maine, mostly because it's a home game. But I went with Liberty over Charleston Southern. With the expanded 24-team playoff, I didn't anticipate quite so much debate about the field, but this weekend is loaded with important games.
I agree. An amazing number of games that are crucial for one or both of the teams. The upset choices are all like that.

There’s also a bit of a mess in the Southern Conference that has to work itself out. The right combination could actually give Furman (5-2, in conference 6-5 overall) the automatic bid. http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/11/conference_championship_fcs_pl.html

Drew Champlin said:
If Samford beats a 2-9 Elon team and Wofford beats Furman, Samford earns the automatic bid because of its win over Chattanooga last week. If Furman beats Wofford, there's a 3-way tie with Furman, Samford and Chattanooga. According to the league office, Furman would win the tiebreaker, and Samford would have to hope for an at-large bid.
I tried to work through the conference tie-breaker rules. The sub-rule for a three-way tie would start (assuming both win this weekend) with:

  • Chattanooga (6-2), lost to Samford, beat Furman
    Samford (6-2) lost to Furman beat Chattie
    Furman (6-2) lost to Chattie, beat Samford
That first part looks at the win-loss records against each other but those are all 1-1. They then start down the standings one by one, looking at who won or lost. And at that point, I got a headache and said the Hell with it -- I'll take the take their word for it. ;)
 
It would be nice if everything played out for the Griz to get the #4 seed in the playoffs and two home games...therefore I hope we win and Maine loses and the selection committee gives us that seed
 
Grizzly Oredigger said:
It would be nice if everything played out for the Griz to get the #4 seed in the playoffs and two home games...therefore I hope we win and Maine loses and the selection committee gives us that seed
Yeah, ever since mid-season some of us have been rooting against New Hampshire. :lol: But now we have to go the other way. ;)

Might be a long shot to improve the Griz's seed, but why not?
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Grizzly Oredigger said:
It would be nice if everything played out for the Griz to get the #4 seed in the playoffs and two home games...therefore I hope we win and Maine loses and the selection committee gives us that seed
Yeah, ever since mid-season some of us have been rooting against New Hampshire. :lol: But now we have to go the other way. ;)

Might be a long shot to improve the Griz's seed, but why not?
I’ve gone back and forth on this. The committee might still give Maine a top seed, even if they lose and end up with that 10-2 record. That’s especially so if EWU takes care of business -- that is, they will surely not give the Big Sky two top seeds.

Beyond that, I’m hoping for two upsets in CAA games I did not put in the poll. Towson (9-2) is at home against JMU (6-5), so I don’t see much of a chance there ... and it would not knock Towson out of a bid anyway. What I would like to see are “upsets” in two other top CAA games.

First, Delaware (7-4) and Villanova (5-5) meet in something called the “Battle of the Blue” in Chester, PA. That’s billed as a “neutral” site, but Chester is about ten miles south of the Villanova campus, so that’s total BS. (Of course, now that Villanova basketball has started, I don’t imagine even a “rivalry” game will draw that much support.) Anyway, I’m hoping 'Nova gets the win to nail Delaware with its 5th loss.

Same thing for William & Mary (7-4) at Richmond (5-6). A Richmond win should knock W&M out of bid contention. And that’s a good thing for everybody else, including the Big Sky.
 
By no means do I think USD can upset NDSU @ the Fargo Dome, but the last I looked, the Bison are favored by 38.5 points. That is a lot of points..
 
'68griz said:
Geddes said:
By no means do I think USD can upset NDSU @ the Fargo Dome, but the last I looked, the Bison are favored by 38.5 points. That is a lot of points..
OMG!
Actually, that may make sense, as lop-sided as it looks at first glance. First, NDSU is #2 in scoring defense, allowing just 12.7 points per game, on average. (FYI, William & Mary is #1, allowing just 12.7 ppg). Pair that with the fact that South Dakota has a hard time scoring: They’re #106 in scoring offense (19.0 ppg). Can you say “shut-out?”

USD is #43 in scoring defense, so they’re just okay on that side of the ball. Now pair that with the fact that NDSU is #18 in scoring, averaging 36.6 ppg. Suddenly 38.5 does not look that far out of line.
 
Wanna bet? Not sure what you posted that doesn't still make it out of line, from a wager's standpoint.
 
I still be learn da post edit skillz..but don't worry, ewoo offers this as a post graduate degree! I will be coupling this with bathtub methamphetamine fabrication..
 
I still love you Ida. Your stat research is awesome. When I get my venue for the egriz cage match I plan, prepare to take on Potomac in a Hell in a Cell Strap Match..

Which gives me an idea..
 
Geddes said:
Wanna bet? Not sure what you posted that doesn't still make it out of line, from a wager's standpoint.

Geddes said:
I still love you Ida. Your stat research is awesome. When I get my venue for the egriz cage match I plan, prepare to take on Potomac in a Hell in a Cell Strap Match..

Which gives me an idea..
Nope. :lol: :lol:

I still think that, barring a turnover or ST breakdown, NDSU could pitch a shut-out in this game. (Remember, they had two in a row earlier in the year.) But, since Margin of Victory doesn't factor in, I would think the Bison will start to clear their bench long before they get 30 points ahead. They will certainly pull anyone who's a bit dinged up, just to avoid further injury and give them more time to heal up for when the playoffs get serious.
 
Okay, here’s the “proper” order of business tomorrow:

At 10:00 am (MDT), New Hampshire (much as it pains me to think it) plays a great home game and crushes Maine. Maine ends up 10-2, with a final-game loss against the #21 team. (Showing on DirecTV channel 630).

At 12:05 pm, UM starts an a**-kickin’ on the kitties, who at 7-5 are gone from the playoffs. Griz end up 10-2, same as Maine, having thumped the #13 team in the country. (DirecTV 683, 687).

At 1:05 pm, SUU plays lights out against #10 NAU, so the ‘Jacks end the season at 8-3 and SUU at 9-3. (Perhaps an Arizona broadcast tie-in, but not avaialble on our DTV.)

At 3:45 pm (DTM), PUSs (oops, Portland State) has an epiphany and upsets EWU. The Eags also end at 9-3, having lost to an unranked team. (Comes on after Griz-Cat, DirecTV 583, 687.)

Horribly unlikely, in all its glory? Of course. Sweet result: top-4 seed for the Griz.
:D :D :D
 
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