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Upset Guesses (Nov 12)

What upsets are likely?

  • #11 Chattanooga (7-2) vs #10 Samford (8-1)

    Votes: 16 43.2%

  • #14 Mercer (7-2) vs #13 Furman (7-2)

    Votes: 12 32.4%

  • #17 Delaware (7-2) vs #12 Richmond (7-2)

    Votes: 11 29.7%

  • Villanova (5-4) at #8 William & Mary (8-1)

    Votes: 6 16.2%

  • #22 Rhode Island (6-3) at #21 UNH (6-3)

    Votes: 8 21.6%

  • Illinois State (5-4) at #1 SDSU (9-1)

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • Southern Illinois (5-4) vs #4 NDSU (7-2)

    Votes: 5 13.5%

  • E Kentucky (6-3) at Jacksonville St. (7-2)

    Votes: 5 13.5%
  • Total voters
    37
IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
It’s crunch time! There are four ranked-vs-ranked matchups this coming weekend. Beyond that, three ranked teams face fairly credible opponents. Also, most of the results will have major impacts in the standings for their conferences. Should be fun to watch.

Two choices are allowed and you can change your vote(s) later if you want to.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!
 
Commentary
Samford at Chattanooga is the first of two big tests for the Bulldogs. They are currently undefeated in the SoCon, leading Chattie, Furman, and Mercer by a game. If they can get by the Mocs on the road, they get to return home to face Mercer the following week. They win that, they will have surely earned the championship (and auto-bid) the hard way. If they lose this weekend, they’ll fall into a tie with Chattanooga and the winner of the Mercer-Furman game.

Furman at Mercer is the other half of crunch week in the SoCon. As noted above, these teams are tied for second, so the loser drops out of that tie. The Paladins have already played Samford (loss) and Chattanooga (win). Mercer lost to Chattie, and must still play Samford. Too many ways all this could go, but it should be really interesting.

Richmond at Delaware offers a chance for the CAA championship to get even crazier than it already is. Right now, Richmond is one of three teams tied at the top with just one conference loss. The Spiders obviously need a win to stay in that tie. Delaware, on the other hand, already has two conference losses. Another would put them out of the running for the championship and auto-bid.

Villanova at William & Mary is the Wildcats’ last chance to remain in the mix for an at-large bid. A fifth loss will kill their chances, since I do not see a (6-5) team getting in from the CAA. Conversely, the Tribe needs the win to stay in the hunt for the championship. Assuming Richmond wins (above), the game two weeks out – W&M at Richmond – would likely be for the championship.

The Rhode Island at UNH game is much like the Richmond-Delaware matchup. New Hampshire is the third team tied at the top, so they need the win to stay in that tie. And, unlike Richmond, they have a relative cupcake (Maine) for their last game. Either way, they will be hoping for a Richmond loss since they lost the head-to-head with the Spiders. (Because of the unbalanced schedule, they did not play either Delaware or Villanova.) Rhode Island badly needs a win to keep their hopes alive for an at-large bid. They too play a cupcake (Albany) in their final home game, so a win here would almost guarantee a final (8-3) record.

Illinois State at SDSU features two teams going in opposite directions. The Jacks’ have already clinched at least a tie for the Missouri Valley title. But they will want a win to nail down the top seed. On the other side, the Redbirds must win to have any chance for an at-large bid. Even if they win the following week (home against Western Illinois), they don’t have the resume to get in at (6-5).

North Dakota State at Southern Illinois is another case of teams going in opposite directions. The Bison have a resume that will surely get them a bid. The Salukis had a great winning streak in the middle of the season, but have since lost two in a row. And two weeks out, they must face surging Youngstown State on the road. Even if they could somehow manage a split, I see no chance that they would get a bid at (6-5).

Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State is way more important to the Colonels than it is for the Gamecocks. As noted for previous polls and elsewhere, Jacksonville State is not eligible for the FCS playoffs. However, news report say that they can win the ASUN season championship as a parting gesture. Eastern Kentucky, on the other hand, needs every win to have any hope of grabbing the joint ASUN-WAC auto-bid. (Actually, that part is so confusing, I have no idea if they are even a possibility for that.) Even at 8-3, I do not see the Colonels getting an at-large … but they may believe otherwise.
 
Bump ... for those who visit eGriz during lunch.

Interesting that every choice now has at least one vote.
 
Well, I picked two random ones, honestly. So much ECB in that list I couldn’t give two shits!
 
Interesting that the top vote-getter rright now – Samford at Chttanooga – is practically a pickum’. That’s evident from their ranking, although I notice that the pollsters have Samford over 100 points ahead of Chattie. Their records are eerily similar. Each were shut out by just over 30 points by pretty good FBS opponent (both now ranked). They did not play the same OOC teams, but they were reasonably comparable in strength: Samford won 27-17 and 33-28; The Mocs won 38-20 and 41-14. [Slight edge to Chattanooga, I think.] Their common SoCon opponents were VMI, Citadel, ETSU, Wofford, and Furman. Chattie lost to Furam (24-20), while Samford won 34-27. Balance that loss against the Mocs’ solid win over contender Mercer (41-21), which Samford must play next week. Against their common SoCon opponents, the score differential was virtually a wash, considering road versus home conditions (71 and 75). Sagarin gives Chattanooga a slight edge in SOS (very slight = +0.59) and, with the home field addendum, favors them by just under a field goal.

We’ve seen both teams play, and I’d give Chattanooga maybe a bit more of an advantage. It’s also a game the Mocs, with two losses already – one to contender Furman – absolutely have to win. Chattie is one of four teams in contention for the championship and auto-bid. Those four will be fighting among themselves during these next two weekends. There are several ways that could play out. I tried several, making only the assumption that the contenders would beat the non-contender opponents (Wofford for Furman, Western Carolina for Chattanooga). In all those scenarios, the two top teams ended at 9-2 or better. The SoCon will almost certainly get two teams in, but it’s been years since they had three … probably not since App State and Geo Southern moved up. So whoever suffers a third loss this weekend is almost certainly out of the running.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Interesting that the top vote-getter rright now – Samford at Chttanooga – is practically a pickum’. That’s evident from their ranking, although I notice that the pollsters have Samford over 100 points ahead of Chattie. Their records are eerily similar. Each were shut out by just over 30 points by pretty good FBS opponent (both now ranked). They did not play the same OOC teams, but they were reasonably comparable in strength: Samford won 27-17 and 33-28; The Mocs won 38-20 and 41-14. [Slight edge to Chattanooga, I think.] Their common SoCon opponents were VMI, Citadel, ETSU, Wofford, and Furman. Chattie lost to Furam (24-20), while Samford won 34-27. Balance that loss against the Mocs’ solid win over contender Mercer (41-21), which Samford must play next week. Against their common SoCon opponents, the score differential was virtually a wash, considering road versus home conditions (71 and 75). Sagarin gives Chattanooga a slight edge in SOS (very slight = +0.59) and, with the home field addendum, favors them by just under a field goal.

We’ve seen both teams play, and I’d give Chattanooga maybe a bit more of an advantage. It’s also a game the Mocs, with two losses already – one to contender Furman – absolutely have to win. Chattie is one of four teams in contention for the championship and auto-bid. Those four will be fighting among themselves during these next two weekends. There are several ways that could play out. I tried several, making only the assumption that the contenders would beat the non-contender opponents (Wofford for Furman, Western Carolina for Chattanooga). In all those scenarios, the two top teams ended at 9-2 or better. The SoCon will almost certainly get two teams in, but it’s been years since they had three … probably not since App State and Geo Southern moved up. So whoever suffers a third loss this weekend is almost certainly out of the running.
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Rut roh! Haley is picking Chattanooga. :lol:

Edit: Balanced by the fact that he's also picking UC-Davis to go into Idaho and win. Not saying it won't happen, but I think Spuds are better than "outsiders" give them credit for.
Link: https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/11/fcs-football-preview-and-predictions-week-11-games-of-the-week/
 
kurtismichael said:
Picked Delaware over Richmond because I don’t like spiders. 😂. Oh and Eastern Kentucky.
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As good a reason as any. :thumb:
:lol: :lol: :lol:

One of my picks too, actually (as of now).
 
Although five ranked teams lost today, there were no upsets among any of the the teams in the poll. Cannot recall that that has ever happened before. (The fifth loss was #25 Princeton at Yale.)

Edit: Right now, #15 Idaho is down 21-7 to UC-Davis early in the second quarter. Long way to go, but not a good start for the Spuds.
 
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