Grizzlies1982 said:
I've got New Hampshire. By no means are they a great team. However, neither is So. Dakota State.
I believe the typical MVFC arrogance is way too high this year. Though when is it not? Those teams tend to play their best against each other. UNH doesn't seem to pose much of a threat. Therefore they may just slip by and expose the Jackrabbits on Saturday.
P.S. Though I'd love to see Weber State pull it off Friday. Good Luck Wildcats.
As suggested above, I decided to re-consider my vote for Kennesaw State. So I went to the numbers posted at NCAA.com. It was indeed impressive how the Owls shut down J’ville State. But the upset of Central Arkansas was actually more impressive … where it mattered.
Fair warning: If you're not a numbers geek, you should probably jump right to the bottom.
Jacksonville State is #16 in rushing offense, but only #58 in total offense and #41 in scoring (28.8 ppg).
Central Arkansas is #16 in passing offense, but #7 in total offense and #10 in scoring (35.8 ppg). So, by the numbers, Central Arkansas was a far stronger opponent than J’ville State. And that showed in the results.
Kennesaw held the Gamecocks almost 120 yards under their season average for rushing. J’ville has only a feeble passing game (#106), so they were held about 180 yards under their average for total offense, and nearly 22 points below their scoring average.
UNH held Central Arkansas almost 124 yards under their season average for rushing. But “forcing” the Bears to pass just unleashed that part of their more balanced offense … so UNH held them only 31 yards below their average for total offense. But stuffing the running game made it harder in the red zone, so the Bears were nearly 21 points below their scoring average.
Conclusion: Playing a team with a much better, and more balanced offense, UNH won by basically the same margin as Kennesaw State. But you also have to factor in the numbers for each team’s next opponent.
The numbers for New Hampshire’s upcoming opponent, South Dakota State, are not too shabby. The Jacks are #38 in rushing offense. Their passing attack is outstanding, so they are #14 in total offense and #6 in scoring (37.4 ppg) Those total numbers are quite similar to those for Central Arkansas, which UNH beat handily.
Kennesaw’s opponent, Sam Houston State, presents a much bigger problem. SHSU is not that far behind J’ville State in their rushing attack (about 43 ypg less). But they are #1 in passing, #1 in total offense, and #1 in scoring (46.6 ppg). That’s vastly more “firepower” than the Owls faced at Jacksonville State. Still, you can’t say Kennesaw has no chance. Their #1 rushing attack (328.5 ypg) allows them to dominate Time of Possession (#7, 33.2 min). Countering that is the fact that SHSU piled up the most yards, and the most points in FCS, while consistently losing the TOP battle (#107, 28.0 min).
Bottom line: I just changed my vote from Kennesaw State for the upset to New Hampshire. Of course, it would be an absolute hoot if
both happened.
).
arty:
