Commentary
The Richmond-Albany games pits #22 versus #9. These two did not play each other during the regular season (being in the most ridiculously unbalanced conference of all). However, they do have four common opponents. I was takin’ aback at first by the Albany record, with 12 games already … until I saw they flew out to Hawaii to lose a money game. That’s one of those odd rules from the NCAA: You can schedule an extra game if you play in Hawaii. (I assume the $$$ was enough extra to cover their flight.) It is a fact that the Great Danes beat all four common opponents more handily than did the Spiders. And Albany is at home. Still, after a slow start, Richmond pretty much obliterated NC Central … they are definitely hot right now. I’d call this a classic “on any given Saturday” case for a possible upset.
The Youngstown State at Villanova game pits #21 versus #6. This will be an interesting test: Can a team that tied for 3rd in the MVFC compete with a co-champion of the CAA? I think so. The Penguins had four ranked MVFC teams on their schedule. Yes, those were three of their four losses (other than Ohio State), but most were close and two could have easily gone the other way. Villanova faced just two ranked CAA teams, one of which they lost. I would rate this near a toss-up, even though ‘Nova is at home.
Chattanooga at Furman pits #18 versus #7. These two played each other during the regular season, and the Paladins won at Chattanooga. However, the final difference was only a FG, and Furman needed a late TD (under 2 minutes) to pull it out. I’d call this another toss-up.
Sacramento State at South Dakota pits #15 versus #3. This is obviously a toughie, with USD much higher ranked and at home. However, we must also consider the context: The Hornets just went into North Dakota and pulled off that upset. They got out to a good early lead, lost that, ground out a final TD to take the lead back, forced a three-and-out, and then managed a clock-killing drive to seal the deal. Pretty damned impressive. I wouldn’t bet against them doing it to USD.
Mercer at South Dakota State pits #17 versus #1. It’s hard to work up any enthusiasm for an upset here. During the regular season, the Bears lost to Furman and Chattanooga (and Ole Miss) while feasting on all the cupcakes on their schedule. In fact, I was surprised to see the SoCon get two at-large bids. But they did, and then the committee gave them pitiful Gardner-Webb (7-4), the auto-bid out the Big South-OVC combine. Congrats on the win, and guess who you get to play? Honestly, I have included it here just for completeness. Still, anyone who thinks there’s an outside chance for a win could pick it … and bask in all kinds of glory if a minor miracle happens.
The NDSU at Montana State game pits #8 versus #5, the closest matchup in terms of their poll rankings. Without going into the details, I’d say they played roughly comparable schedules in terms of opponent strength … and the kitties did better. Oddly enough they do have one significant common opponent: at SDSU. The Bison lost by 17, MSU by just 4. Does that make it a lock for MSU? Nope. NDSU trounced two pretty good opponents to close the regular season (not to mention “doing their duty” against Drake last Saturday). I’d give the cats a slight edge, including the home-field advantage, but that’s about it. (Feel free to disagree.
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The Delaware-Montana game pits #11 versus #2. I’m not going to dwell much on this one. The B-Hens are going to come into WaGriz on a huge high after their confidence-building win. The Griz are coming off a bye week. Need I say more? GO GRIZ!
The Southern Illinois at Idaho games pits #14 versus #4. The Salukis were inconsistent all year after their upset of Northern Illinois. But keep in mind that Northern Illinois, weak as it was, won enough games to get into a bowl game. And all of SIU’s losses were to teams that are in the playoffs. The spuds lost to FBS Cal, the Griz … and at Weber State. This is a game that it seems like Idaho should win, at home, but they better be on top of their game.
