It’s homecoming week! The Griz are back home and are a little banged up but I’m sure they’re looking forward to getting back on track. This is our opening conference game and we’ve got a UNC Bears team headed to town that has some eerie similarities to the Griz, statistically at least. They’ve got a defense that’s forced a ton of turnovers so far this season.
Here we go; UNC Bears 1-2
12-13 loss vs UNLV: In a game that many Griz fans began following UNC nearly pulled off the upset. It was a pretty ugly game overall, both teams had about 330 yards of total offense. UNC had a chance to grab the lead late though, but they missed a 30-yard chip shot with 5 minutes left to go in the game, UNLV got the ball back and practically ran the entire clock out. Bobby and staff must’ve been furious about this game, they had 4 interceptions to the UNC defense. Four of those interceptions were forced inside the UNC redzone, with the Bears grabbing interceptions on their own 15 yard line, 3 yard line, and 12 yard line, as well as the 4th on their own 31 yard line. UNLV did rush for almost 230 but couldn’t get a thing done passing.
28-20 win vs Houston Baptist: UNC must’ve still been in shock from narrowly losing to an FBS team because they opened pretty flat and had to mount a comeback against now 0-3 Houston Baptist. UNC did lead at the half, narrowly, by a score of 15-10. In the 3rd HBU scooped a fumble to score and take a 17-15 lead, they then tacked on a fieldgoal at the end of the 3rd to extend their lead to 20-15. After the made fieldgoal UNC got the ball back and promptly got the lead back on a TD but failed on a 2-pt conversion attempt, 21-20. They scored again with about 5:00 left in the game and made the PAT to set the final score. HBU got the ball back and got 50 yards downfield but tossed an interception and the game was over. For the 2nd week in a row UNC’s pass defense snagged 4 interceptions. Another game with not the most flashy stats, HBU had 310 yards and UNC had 360 total yards.
7-46 loss vs UNI: UNC went to UNI to face an 0-2 team but was promptly destroyed. UNI held the Bears to just over 200 yards of offense and only 65 yards rushing. Meanwhile UNI ran for 310 yards (I can hear Delaney drooling already). UNC went 3-13 on third down and they only crossed mid-field three times the whole day. UNC’s ball-hawking defense did snag another interception though to raise their total to 9 picks in 3 games.
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General Stats:
Looking at how each team stacks up with YPG we see the Griz hold advantages both offensively and defensively. It’s maybe even more interesting to notice how slow of a start the Grizzly offense, especially the passing game (cough* Oline issues *cough) has been.
Points per game suggest a similar advantage for the Griz. The Griz offense actually score less per game than what the Bears defense even allows per game, and the same way on the other side, the Bears don’t even score as much per game as the Grizzlies defense allows.
Looking at the two charts that compare offenses and defenses per quarter it looks like the Bears defense coupled with the Grizzlies offense could suggest a higher scoring 1st half of the game and a 2nd half that will taper off and be a little less exciting. One rather concerning trend over last year is looking at the per quarter points allowed by the Grizzly defense, while it’s still pretty strong we see that the Grizzly defense shows signs of allowing more points later. Maybe a product of an inefficient offense and a heavy TOP disadvantage?
And looking at the offenses and defenses side by side we can see again where the 1st half of the game might give us most of the scoring and fireworks.
Finally red zone efficiency, this one surprised me at first but then when re-capping UNC’s games I now see why. We’ve got two very similar teams in the red zone. UNC and UM have RZ defenses that don’t allow a lot of TDs. Also both teams score TDs on offense about 2/3s of the time when in the red zone.
Some other stats worth pointing out:
- UNC has snagged 9 interceptions this season, they’re +6 on the year in turnovers. The Griz are +5. These two teams (I believe) have the two best turnover margins in the conference right now.
- UNC converts 3rd downs at a 32% rate while the Grizzly defense allows conversions at a 40% rate. On the other side of the ball the UNC defense allows 3rd down conversions UNC allows conversions 41% of the time while the Grizzly offense converts at a 35% rate.
- UNC is a far worse fieldgoal kicking team than the Griz. They’re 1-5 on the season while the Griz are 3-6 kicking. Looking at some of UNC’s box scores it looks like they’re not afraid to try for a 2 point conversion a time or two as well.
- UNC apparently brings out the worst in their opponents, teams playing them are averaging almost 100 penalty yards per game.
- UNC rushes the ball at about a 2:1 ratio.
- Statistically UNC’s punting numbers are pretty bad, their net punt average is just 29.9 yards (Griz are almost 42 yards) and they give up 7.5 yards per return. If Hendu is back returning punts he may have a chance or two.
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Players to Watch:
#28 Robert Holland, RB: Holland is a senior, a 6 foot tall, 210 pound running back who leads the team in rushing yards with 255 total yards and 2 TDs. He’s got two pass receptions, but for -2 total yards.
#15 Sean Rubalcaba, QB: A new starter taking over for Seth Lobato, Rubalcaba is a 6-2 sophomore. He’s got a real high completion % at 70% and is 40-58 passing on the year for 520 total yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.
#26 Darius Graham, RB: The bruiser back in UNC’s offense he’s 6-1 and 230 pounds. He’s got 88 yards, 2 TDs, and 34 receiving yards this year so far.
#3 Dimitri Stimphil, WR: The main target in the passing game, Stimphil has 237 receiving yards and 1 TD this year. He accounts for about 46% of the total teams passing game and 100% of it’s scoring through the air. He’s 5th best in the Big Sky right now.
#93 Lexington Smith, DT: A big 300 pound tackle who leads the team in tackles (23) and TFLs (3.5). He’s also got a ½ of a sack and was quoted in the Missoulian talking about how much fun it is to play on the road and make a stadium go silent.
#21 Courtney Hall, CB: 2nd on the team in tackles, Hall has 22 total tackles, he’s tied for the team lead in INTs with 2, and has 3 PBUs.
#29 JaQueal Walker, LB: Walker has 21 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 INT this season.
#27 Dominick Sierra, LB: 17 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, one of the few starters so far that doesn’t have an interception!
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Keys to a Grizzly victory:
1. Run the ball well. Music to our OC’s ears. UNC has had a major issue shutting down rushing attacks this season and I assume the Griz will look to do just that. Add in that this defense of UNC’s really gets after it with interceptions and I expect a ton of running on Saturday.
2. Have a strong performance in the red zone and with turnovers. Both UNC and the UM have good RZ defenses and good turnover margins. The Griz need to prove they’re the better team in both categories. Get RZ touchdowns and win the turnover battle.
3. Force UNC to the air. The Bears want to slow the game down and control the clock. They heavily rely on just one guy. Shutting down their rushing attack and not letting Stimphil go nuts will be a major factor to a Grizzly victory
4. Mix it up a little. While I haven’t actually researched this it would seem the UM offense recently has just been run-run-pass. UNC no doubt will be looking over film and preparing to stuff the box to try to stop our ground-game. Mix it up with screens and some earlier passes.
5. Control the penalties. Not sure if it’s b/c of the guys they played or what but UNC hold almost a 40 yard advantage per game in penalties assessed vs opponent penalties.
6. Protect JJ. This pass defense will look to capitalize on his shaky start to the season. What will help right off the bat will be improved pass protection from the O-line and probably RBs/TEs.
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Based on what I see from UNC this game should end up in favor of the Griz and maybe by quite a bit. The Bears have some ball-hawking talent on defense but can’t stop the run and statistically are worse than the Griz in almost every category. This doesn’t mean this game is a “gimmie” though. UNC hung around in 2 of their 3 games because of mistakes by the other team that lead to a ton of forced turnovers.
I hope the Griz can rotate a lot of guys and get the O-line back on track with building more confidence. It’s going to be a cool and wet/rainy day, according to forecasts, which could slow down both teams. I don’t think this will be too low-scoring of a game but I think we may see the Griz come out the gates a little slow. I’ll say a 2nd quarter surge puts the Griz up for good and they go on to win 34-7.
GO GRIZ!
Here we go; UNC Bears 1-2
12-13 loss vs UNLV: In a game that many Griz fans began following UNC nearly pulled off the upset. It was a pretty ugly game overall, both teams had about 330 yards of total offense. UNC had a chance to grab the lead late though, but they missed a 30-yard chip shot with 5 minutes left to go in the game, UNLV got the ball back and practically ran the entire clock out. Bobby and staff must’ve been furious about this game, they had 4 interceptions to the UNC defense. Four of those interceptions were forced inside the UNC redzone, with the Bears grabbing interceptions on their own 15 yard line, 3 yard line, and 12 yard line, as well as the 4th on their own 31 yard line. UNLV did rush for almost 230 but couldn’t get a thing done passing.
28-20 win vs Houston Baptist: UNC must’ve still been in shock from narrowly losing to an FBS team because they opened pretty flat and had to mount a comeback against now 0-3 Houston Baptist. UNC did lead at the half, narrowly, by a score of 15-10. In the 3rd HBU scooped a fumble to score and take a 17-15 lead, they then tacked on a fieldgoal at the end of the 3rd to extend their lead to 20-15. After the made fieldgoal UNC got the ball back and promptly got the lead back on a TD but failed on a 2-pt conversion attempt, 21-20. They scored again with about 5:00 left in the game and made the PAT to set the final score. HBU got the ball back and got 50 yards downfield but tossed an interception and the game was over. For the 2nd week in a row UNC’s pass defense snagged 4 interceptions. Another game with not the most flashy stats, HBU had 310 yards and UNC had 360 total yards.
7-46 loss vs UNI: UNC went to UNI to face an 0-2 team but was promptly destroyed. UNI held the Bears to just over 200 yards of offense and only 65 yards rushing. Meanwhile UNI ran for 310 yards (I can hear Delaney drooling already). UNC went 3-13 on third down and they only crossed mid-field three times the whole day. UNC’s ball-hawking defense did snag another interception though to raise their total to 9 picks in 3 games.
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General Stats:
Looking at how each team stacks up with YPG we see the Griz hold advantages both offensively and defensively. It’s maybe even more interesting to notice how slow of a start the Grizzly offense, especially the passing game (cough* Oline issues *cough) has been.
Points per game suggest a similar advantage for the Griz. The Griz offense actually score less per game than what the Bears defense even allows per game, and the same way on the other side, the Bears don’t even score as much per game as the Grizzlies defense allows.
Looking at the two charts that compare offenses and defenses per quarter it looks like the Bears defense coupled with the Grizzlies offense could suggest a higher scoring 1st half of the game and a 2nd half that will taper off and be a little less exciting. One rather concerning trend over last year is looking at the per quarter points allowed by the Grizzly defense, while it’s still pretty strong we see that the Grizzly defense shows signs of allowing more points later. Maybe a product of an inefficient offense and a heavy TOP disadvantage?
And looking at the offenses and defenses side by side we can see again where the 1st half of the game might give us most of the scoring and fireworks.
Finally red zone efficiency, this one surprised me at first but then when re-capping UNC’s games I now see why. We’ve got two very similar teams in the red zone. UNC and UM have RZ defenses that don’t allow a lot of TDs. Also both teams score TDs on offense about 2/3s of the time when in the red zone.
Some other stats worth pointing out:
- UNC has snagged 9 interceptions this season, they’re +6 on the year in turnovers. The Griz are +5. These two teams (I believe) have the two best turnover margins in the conference right now.
- UNC converts 3rd downs at a 32% rate while the Grizzly defense allows conversions at a 40% rate. On the other side of the ball the UNC defense allows 3rd down conversions UNC allows conversions 41% of the time while the Grizzly offense converts at a 35% rate.
- UNC is a far worse fieldgoal kicking team than the Griz. They’re 1-5 on the season while the Griz are 3-6 kicking. Looking at some of UNC’s box scores it looks like they’re not afraid to try for a 2 point conversion a time or two as well.
- UNC apparently brings out the worst in their opponents, teams playing them are averaging almost 100 penalty yards per game.
- UNC rushes the ball at about a 2:1 ratio.
- Statistically UNC’s punting numbers are pretty bad, their net punt average is just 29.9 yards (Griz are almost 42 yards) and they give up 7.5 yards per return. If Hendu is back returning punts he may have a chance or two.
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Players to Watch:
#28 Robert Holland, RB: Holland is a senior, a 6 foot tall, 210 pound running back who leads the team in rushing yards with 255 total yards and 2 TDs. He’s got two pass receptions, but for -2 total yards.
#15 Sean Rubalcaba, QB: A new starter taking over for Seth Lobato, Rubalcaba is a 6-2 sophomore. He’s got a real high completion % at 70% and is 40-58 passing on the year for 520 total yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.
#26 Darius Graham, RB: The bruiser back in UNC’s offense he’s 6-1 and 230 pounds. He’s got 88 yards, 2 TDs, and 34 receiving yards this year so far.
#3 Dimitri Stimphil, WR: The main target in the passing game, Stimphil has 237 receiving yards and 1 TD this year. He accounts for about 46% of the total teams passing game and 100% of it’s scoring through the air. He’s 5th best in the Big Sky right now.
#93 Lexington Smith, DT: A big 300 pound tackle who leads the team in tackles (23) and TFLs (3.5). He’s also got a ½ of a sack and was quoted in the Missoulian talking about how much fun it is to play on the road and make a stadium go silent.
#21 Courtney Hall, CB: 2nd on the team in tackles, Hall has 22 total tackles, he’s tied for the team lead in INTs with 2, and has 3 PBUs.
#29 JaQueal Walker, LB: Walker has 21 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 INT this season.
#27 Dominick Sierra, LB: 17 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, one of the few starters so far that doesn’t have an interception!
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Keys to a Grizzly victory:
1. Run the ball well. Music to our OC’s ears. UNC has had a major issue shutting down rushing attacks this season and I assume the Griz will look to do just that. Add in that this defense of UNC’s really gets after it with interceptions and I expect a ton of running on Saturday.
2. Have a strong performance in the red zone and with turnovers. Both UNC and the UM have good RZ defenses and good turnover margins. The Griz need to prove they’re the better team in both categories. Get RZ touchdowns and win the turnover battle.
3. Force UNC to the air. The Bears want to slow the game down and control the clock. They heavily rely on just one guy. Shutting down their rushing attack and not letting Stimphil go nuts will be a major factor to a Grizzly victory
4. Mix it up a little. While I haven’t actually researched this it would seem the UM offense recently has just been run-run-pass. UNC no doubt will be looking over film and preparing to stuff the box to try to stop our ground-game. Mix it up with screens and some earlier passes.
5. Control the penalties. Not sure if it’s b/c of the guys they played or what but UNC hold almost a 40 yard advantage per game in penalties assessed vs opponent penalties.
6. Protect JJ. This pass defense will look to capitalize on his shaky start to the season. What will help right off the bat will be improved pass protection from the O-line and probably RBs/TEs.
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Based on what I see from UNC this game should end up in favor of the Griz and maybe by quite a bit. The Bears have some ball-hawking talent on defense but can’t stop the run and statistically are worse than the Griz in almost every category. This doesn’t mean this game is a “gimmie” though. UNC hung around in 2 of their 3 games because of mistakes by the other team that lead to a ton of forced turnovers.
I hope the Griz can rotate a lot of guys and get the O-line back on track with building more confidence. It’s going to be a cool and wet/rainy day, according to forecasts, which could slow down both teams. I don’t think this will be too low-scoring of a game but I think we may see the Griz come out the gates a little slow. I’ll say a 2nd quarter surge puts the Griz up for good and they go on to win 34-7.
GO GRIZ!
