TSN Poll for FCS (Nov 12)

[Cats2506]

Agreed. Plus the committee's guidelines state something along the lines of awarding teams with all D-I schedules (which EWU has and MSU doesn't).

That plus better wins + same amount of D-I victories + same amount of FCS defeats (I don't think close game against Wazzu will help but also don't think it will hurt) + head to head win + likely BSC autobid + winning NC recently = EWU > MSU.

I just don't see how MSU would get a higher seed than EWU, especially after MSU collects another tally in the loss column this weekend :thumb:

I see problems with your thinking there, The NCAA championship manual does mention preference to teams with all DI schedules, but it is in relation to selection, not in seeding or pairing. Seeding and pairing is pretty much left up to the committee and there are no written guidelines on that.

I agree with that but even without it being a written guideline for seeding, it's still my personal opinion that it will at least subconsciously be a positive for EWU.

just as the polls, GPI, autobid and other factors could be a positive for MSU, the committee seems to do things a little differently each year. EWU fans are putting a lot of stock in the head to head, but I dont believe that will be the deciding factor.

We have 1 more game left and at 11:30 AM next Sunday (ESPNU) we will see where the chips fall.

 

[marceagfan5]

Agreed. Plus the committee's guidelines state something along the lines of awarding teams with all D-I schedules (which EWU has and MSU doesn't).

That plus better wins + same amount of D-I victories + same amount of FCS defeats (I don't think close game against Wazzu will help but also don't think it will hurt) + head to head win + likely BSC autobid + winning NC recently = EWU > MSU.

I just don't see how MSU would get a higher seed than EWU, especially after MSU collects another tally in the loss column this weekend :thumb:

I see problems with your thinking there, The NCAA championship manual does mention preference to teams with all DI schedules, but it is in relation to selection, not in seeding or pairing. Seeding and pairing is pretty much left up to the committee and there are no written guidelines on that.

I agree with that but even without it being a written guideline for seeding, it's still my personal opinion that it will at least subconsciously be a positive for EWU.

Its not rocket science, Double is right....Both teams would have 9 FCS wins, EWU won the head to head in Bozeman, can't see the committee overlooking that...

Both teams still have work to do this weekend....

 

[ABQCat]

The rankings don't really matter when it comes to the playoff seeding. In 2010 EWU was the #1 ranked team the last couple of weeks of the regular season but was seeded lower than MSU due to the Bobcats winning the HTH with EWU. If both teams win this weekend, the same thing will happen. And as has been pointed out, MSU played a very weak non-conference schedule. Not sure why anyone would consider them having a better resume. Also, I think there's a chance they lose this weekend facing a 5-5 Griz team playing for a winning season.


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I can't tell if you are actually taking yourself seriously here. As long as NAU holds court in Flag and we take care of business, we get the AQ. There's 100% chance we will be seeded above you in that scenario, and about 75% chance we are seeded above you as long as we win this weekend regardless of any of the other outcomes. There's plenty of precedence of this situation in the CAA if you care to look it up. You shouldn't have lost to SUU at home...plain and simple. I'll bet you were pretty confident last year in your PSU game as well, and everyone remembers how that turned out. EWU has been playing very very poorly of late and I wouldn't take that game for granted.

(Sorry about that. Please continue with your regularly scheduled programming.)

Wait, isn't the first tiebreaker head-to-head records? If NAU, MSU, and EWU all end up with one conference loss, wouldn't MSU be eliminated from AQ consideration because of their H2H loss against EWU? And then the tiebreakers continue on with NAU and EWU? Or do I have the process confused?

Yes. No. No. Yes.

 

[DoubleNicks]

Man - you guys can argue about all of the differences between teams, but there already is a system devised to help sort all of this out.

The Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the index ranking for the NCAA Division I FCS and a top indicator of at-large playoff selection.

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stats/writer/gpi/20121112GPI.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There's the latest GPI. If NDSU, EWU, and MSU all win their last games - all of them deserve a seed.

The reason why everyone is highly regarding SHSU: they've averaged almost 50 points/game in their last 7 games. They've been just shutting down teams. They are the hottest team in FCS right now. They are the runner-up from 2011. If you can't see why SHSU is a scary team that deserves respect and attention, I don't know what to tell you. They may even hang with A&M this weekend.

I completely agree with SHSU. They are scary and I really hope that if we have to play them, it's in Bozeman. I would be projecting them as the #2 seed over us execpt for the fact that they are going to get destroyed this weekend (no, they won't hang). We all know it shouldn't matter, just like the close loss to WSU by EWU shouldn't matter, but these game always seems to lower a team's standing for some reason. Based on the fact that GSU is also going to lose this weekend, I'm sure SHSU will still get seeded (probably still a #3 and maybe a #4).

Oh, I agree SHSU is scary as well (especially since they returned so much from that team last year that proved it). My point for critiquing SHSU was that in my opinion, EWU and MSU (or a number of teams) would have done just as well if not better with their schedule. Isn't the FCS playoffs about proving yourself and letting the results on the field speak for themselves. And with only 7 D-I wins and no quality wins, they haven't proven anything yet, this year. Yeah, it was a stupid schedule with basically no chance of gaining any D-I wins in OOC but given the opportunity to sweep a rather moderate conference they failed to do so.

 

[Cats2506]

 If MSU, EWU and Cal Poly tie at 7-1, the automatic bid would go to Eastern
Washington. All three teams would have played Sacramento State in league games.
Cal Poly would be eliminated because of a loss to the Hornets. MSU and EWU
both beat Sac State, so the tiebreaker would revert to the head-to-head meeting
between MSU and EWU, which the Eagles won.
 If MSU, EWU and NAU tie at 7-1, the automatic bid would go to Montana
State. All three teams would have played Southern Utah, and Montana State is the
only one of the three to have a win over the Thunderbirds.
 If EWU and Cal Poly tie at 7-1, EWU would get the automatic bid because of
a head-to-head win over the Mustangs.
 If MSU and Cal Poly tie at 7-1, MSU would get automatic win because of its
win over Sacramento State. Cal Poly lost to Sacramento State.
 If MSU and NAU tie at 7-1, MSU would get the automatic bid because of the
Bobcats’ win over
Southern Utah. Northern Arizona lost to Southern Utah.
 If EWU and NAU tie at 7-1, the highest team in the Sagarin Rating would
determine the automatic bid.

http://www.bigskyconf.com/documents/2012/11/13/11-12-12notesc.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DoubleNicks]

Agreed. Plus the committee's guidelines state something along the lines of awarding teams with all D-I schedules (which EWU has and MSU doesn't).

That plus better wins + same amount of D-I victories + same amount of FCS defeats (I don't think close game against Wazzu will help but also don't think it will hurt) + head to head win + likely BSC autobid + winning NC recently = EWU > MSU.

I just don't see how MSU would get a higher seed than EWU, especially after MSU collects another tally in the loss column this weekend :thumb:

I see problems with your thinking there, The NCAA championship manual does mention preference to teams with all DI schedules, but it is in relation to selection, not in seeding or pairing. Seeding and pairing is pretty much left up to the committee and there are no written guidelines on that.

I agree with that but even without it being a written guideline for seeding, it's still my personal opinion that it will at least subconsciously be a positive for EWU.

just as the polls, GPI, autobid and other factors could be a positive for MSU, the committee seems to do things a little differently each year. EWU fans are putting a lot of stock in the head to head, but I dont believe that will be the deciding factor.

We have 1 more game left and at 11:30 AM next Sunday (ESPNU) we will see where the chips fall.

Agreed that MSU will have some advantages, as well. I also agree that the committee can be unpredictable and speculation at this point is just that. This next week could still change a lot of things...

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

I'm telling you all, the GPI is by far the best indicator.

Here's the 2011 final results:
1) Sam Houston State
2) Northern Iowa
3) North Dakota State
4) Georgia Southern
5) Montana

Actual Seeding in the Playoffs:
1) Sam Houston State
2) North Dakota State
3) Georgia Southern
4) Montana
5) Northern Iowa

So why did Northern Iowa fall? A few potential reasons:
- NDSU beat them in head to head.
- NDSU won the AQ for the MVC.
- They had 2 losses, whereas NDSU has 1 loss.
- Since the decided to seed NDSU higher, maybe they looked to spread seeds to other conferences.

So if MSU ends up with a higher GPI than EWU - we would have an interesting scenario:
- EWU beat MSU in head to head. (Same as NDSU over UNI last year)
- MSU only has 1 loss, EWU has 2 losses. (Different than last year)
- AQ depends on NAU/CP game.

So depending on whether the committee values head to head, AQ, or number of losses - you could have either team being seeded higher (likely the #2 seed). To say that any of us know which way the committee will go with this is highly unlikely.

I could see the committee seeding either MSU or EWU higher should both win this weekend.

 

[WILD_CAT]

MSUhunter, I think all Griz fans are well aware of how seeding works. Go ahead and make fun of us for not being in the playoffs this year, or in 2010, that's fine with me. We deserve it I guess. But I'm pretty sure most Griz fans have had the pleasure of following the FCS playoffs for a LONG TIME, and I'm pretty certain we've seen our team garner a top four seed many, many, many times. So I don't really need a lesson on there being no difference between 1 and 2. I've been down that road plenty of times. If the Cats keep up the great run they are having, you will too.

But in theory, the idea is, there IS a difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in that, IF the playoffs go chalk, the No. 1 seed would host a lower-ranked No. 4 seed, while the No. 2 seed would host a more evenly-matched No. 3. Do the FCS playoffs go chalk very often? No, of course not. I.E. the Cats getting trucked by NDSU at home two years ago. But that's the theory behind the seeding.

Yeah the playoffs definately don't go as predicted. See the 2001 NC year for the Griz. Didn't like 3-4 of the top seeds all lose?