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Tony Moss Playoff Outlook


Well-known member
This is how Tony Moss has the field as of this week.
He lists 35 teams still in the hunt.

The link..... http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/3rdandlong.htm

1. Wofford (8-1, 6-0 Southern)

THE GAMES: East Tennessee State (11/8 ), at Furman (11/15)

THE DEAL: The Terriers should be in the field of 16 even if they lose their final two, but you can bet that no one in Spartanburg will believe it until the announcement is made on Nov. 23 (Wofford was spurned by the committee last year). Mike Ayers’ team takes the SoCon automatic with a win over 3-6 East Tennessee State this week, and should receive a top four seed if it can go into Greenville and beat arch rival Furman on Nov. 15.

2. Northern Iowa (8-1, 5-0 Gateway)

THE GAMES: at Western Kentucky (11/8 ), Southern Illinois (11/15)

THE DEAL: The committee would have a difficult time leaving the Panthers out even if they lost their final two. If they split, they’ll be in and should host at least one game. If they win out, they’ll have a top four seed and will be in the running for a top two.

3. Delaware (9-0, 6-0 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: at Northeastern (11/8 ), Massachusetts (11/15), at Villanova (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Blue Hens close with a difficult three-game stretch, but will be either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed if they take care of business. Winning two of three should be enough to get them at least one home game (and perhaps a top four seed), and winning one of three would put them somewhere in the field.

4. Southern Illinois (9-0, 5-0 Gateway)

THE GAMES: Youngstown State (11/8 ), at Northern Iowa (11/15)

THE DEAL: The Salukis’ weak non-conference schedule will only be a factor if they lose their last two. If SIU wins out, it would stand to get a top four seed, though published reports indicate that the school is lukewarm on the prospect of hosting due to financial concerns. A 10-1 mark would get them in the field, but they might have to travel in the first round.

5. McNeese State (7-1, 2-0 Southland)

THE GAMES: Stephen F. Austin (11/8 ), Northwestern State (11/15), at Nicholls State (11/22)

THE DEAL: If the Southland desires a second playoff bid, it would be best served by the Cowboys not winning the league automatic. MSU would be the top overall seed at 10-1, would get at least one home game at 9-2, and would find its way into the field of 16 at 8-3.

6. Massachusetts (8-1, 6-0 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: Richmond (11/8 ), at Delaware (11/15), Rhode Island (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Minutemen would have a good shot at a top four by winning out, and should host a first-round game if they finish 10-2 with losses to only Delaware and Kansas State. A 9-3 mark would likely garner Mark Whipple’s team an at-large berth.

7. Colgate (9-0, 4-0 Patriot)

THE GAMES: Lehigh (11/8 ), Fordham (11/15), at Holy Cross (11/22)

THE DEAL: Winning their final three would give the Raiders the automatic, and an 11-1 record would merit an at-large. A 10-2 mark might get the ‘Gate rejected (two November losses will be frowned upon). Initial indications are that Colgate would not submit a bid to host a First Round home game due to financial concerns.

8. Montana (7-2, 3-1 Big Sky)

THE GAMES: at Sacramento State (11/8 ), Eastern Washington (11/15), at Montana State (11/22)

THE DEAL: Grizzles will be in the field in one form or another if they win two of their final three. If they win out and take the Big Sky automatic, they’ll have a chance at a top four seed, but the loss to Division II North Dakota State could haunt that quest.

9. Northern Arizona (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)

THE GAMES: Idaho State (11/8 ), at Sam Houston State (11/15)

THE DEAL: Lumberjacks’ stock has plummeted after two straight losses, but wins as expected in their final two would likely spell an at-large spot.

10. Villanova (7-1, 5-1 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: at Hofstra (11/8 ), at Maine (11/15), Delaware (11/22)

THE DEAL: A 9-2 record would get the Wildcats in the field of 16, possibly with a first-round home game. An 8-3 mark would mean three losses in their final five games and would place Andy Talley’s team firmly on the bubble. The ‘Cats still have a shot at a top four if they win out and UMass loses one of its last three.

11. Western Illinois (6-3, 3-2 Gateway)

THE GAMES: at Indiana State (11/8 ), SMS (11/15)

THE DEAL: The Leathernecks would be deserving of what would be a second at-large for the Gateway if they went 8-3, with wins over I-A Eastern Michigan and Western Kentucky countering recent home losses to Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa.

12. North Carolina A&T (8-1, 4-0 MEAC)

THE GAMES: Delaware State (11/8 ), Hampton (11/15), vs. South Carolina State (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Aggies would be the MEAC’s best chance at an at-large playoff bid, which they’ll likely need if they lose to Hampton on Nov. 15 and finish 10-2. If George Small’s team wins out, they would have a chance to host a first-round contest.

13. Florida Atlantic (7-2, Independent)

THE GAMES: Siena (11/15), at Florida International (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Owls would be worthy at 9-2, especially after defeating I-A Middle Tennessee and going 2-0 against both the Gateway and Southland. FAU might fill in the bracket spot usually assigned to a third Southern Conference team.

14. Hampton (6-2, 5-0 MEAC)

THE GAMES: at Bethune-Cookman (11/8 ), at North Carolina A&T (11/15), Savannah State (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Pirates will take the MEAC’s automatic if they win at North Carolina A&T on Nov. 15. If they go 8-3 and don’t win the automatic, Joe Taylor’s team would get some at-large consideration, but probably not enough to put them in the field of 16.

15. Jacksonville State (5-3, 4-1 Ohio Valley)

THE GAMES: at Samford (11/8 ), Eastern Illinois (11/15), at Southeast Missouri (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Gamecocks have already defeated OVC co-leader Tennessee State, and control their own destiny entering the final month. If JSU loses once, it would have to rely on winning a complicated conference title tie-breaker.

16. The Citadel (5-4, 4-2 Southern)

THE GAMES: at Chattanooga (11/8 ), vs. VMI (11/15), East Tennessee State (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Bulldogs would have one heckuva at-large case at 8-4, with wins over each of the “Big 3” (Furman, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern) and losses to I-A Maryland as well as playoff-bound Delaware and Wofford. Would they have a better resume’ than Furman? Would the committee take two borderline at-larges from the same league? Those could end up being two million dollar questions.

17. Furman (5-3, 3-2 Southern)

THE GAMES: at Georgia Southern (11/8 ), Wofford (11/15), at Chattanooga (11/22)

THE DEAL: Conventional wisdom indicates that Furman would be in the field at 8-3, especially with solid wins over Georgia Southern and Wofford in their final three. But which Southern Conference team would the committee take first - Furman at 8-3 or The Citadel at 8-4 with a victory over the Paladins? Noting the way the SoCon usually dominates the I-AA political process, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine both receiving bids.

18. Northwestern State (6-3, 1-1 Southland)

THE GAMES: at Sam Houston State (11/8 ), at McNeese State (11/15), Stephen F. Austin (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Demons need to win out and root against Nicholls State, which defeated Scott Stoker’s team on Oct. 25. At 9-3, Northwestern would be a cinch for an at-large, but 8-4 with only one decent out-of-conference win (Louisiana-Monroe) might not be enough. If the committee wants four from the west region (which includes the Big Sky and Southland plus western independents such as Cal Poly), like it did last year, the Demons will have a better chance.

19. Montana State (5-4, 3-1 Big Sky)

THE GAMES: at Eastern Washington (11/8 ), at Portland State (11/15), Montana (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Bobcats must win out and win the Big Sky automatic in order to enter the bracket, which is exactly what they did last November. An MSU bid would burst someone’s at-large bubble.

20. Lehigh (6-2, 4-0 Patriot)

THE GAMES: at Colgate (11/8 ), at Bucknell (11/15), Lafayette (11/22)

THE DEAL: If the Mountain Hawks beat Colgate this week, they’ll be in the driver’s seat for the Patriot League automatic. At 8-3 with losses to Penn and Colgate as well as I-A Connecticut, Lehigh would have an at-large case, albeit one that could be tough to sell to all members of the committee.

21. Cal Poly (5-3, Independent)

THE GAMES: at UC Davis (11/8 ), Idaho State (11/15), Humboldt State (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Mustangs would have a solid resume’ at 8-3 (wins over I-A UTEP as well as Montana State and Idaho State, losses to I-A Akron as well as Montana and Northern Arizona), and could benefit if the Big Sky and Southland fail to provide any obvious at-large selections from the west region.

22. Western Kentucky (6-3, 3-2 Gateway)

THE GAMES: Northern Iowa (11/8 ), at Youngstown State (11/15)

THE DEAL: The defending national champs are in big trouble. Unless Western Illinois is upset in one of its final two, the Hilltoppers would be the fourth option from the Gateway due to a weak non-conference schedule and a head-to-head loss to the Lathernecks. The Southern Conference had a strong case for, and did not receive, a fourth bid last season. Chances are the committee’s thinking this year won’t be much different.

23. Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1 Ohio Valley)

THE GAMES: at Southeast Missouri (11/8 ), Eastern Kentucky (11/15), at Murray State (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Tigers would need to win out and have Jacksonville State lose once in order to earn the Ohio Valley automatic. The OVC is not deserving of an at-large bid this year due to a horrendous non-league record, but a 9-3 TSU club might have an outside shot if chaos reigns around the country for the rest of the regular season.

24. Nicholls State (4-4, 2-0 Southland)

THE GAMES: Texas State (11/6), at Stephen F. Austin (11/15), McNeese State (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Colonels are another of the Southland’s teams that would garner the automatic by winning out, and the fact that NSU traditionally plays McNeese State tough has to give the folks in Thibodaux hope.

25. Idaho State (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)

THE GAMES: at Northern Arizona (11/8 ), at Cal Poly (11/15), Southern Utah (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Bengals would be deserving of an entry if they went 8-3, but if their history of playing like kittens in big road games continues, the point will be moot.

26. Stephen F. Austin (5-3, 2-0 Southland)

THE GAMES: at McNeese State (11/8 ), Nicholls State (11/15), at Northwestern State (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Lumberjacks’ final three weeks are among the most arduous in I-AA, but if they find a way to sweep their season-ending trio, they’ll be Southland champs and in the bracket.

27. Samford (6-3, 4-2 Ohio Valley)

THE GAMES: Jacksonville State (11/8 ), at Eastern Illinois (11/22)

THE DEAL: If Samford wins out and Tennessee State loses at least one, the Bulldogs will have a chance at taking the OVC title in what could be a mind-taxing tie-breaker. Two losses in the relatively weak OVC means Bill Gray’s team won’t get much at-large consideration, even at 8-3.

28. Bucknell (5-4, 3-1 Patriot)

THE GAMES: at Lafayette (11/8 ), Lehigh (11/15), Georgetown (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Bison would probably have to win out and have Colgate lose twice in order to earn the Patriot automatic. If Lehigh defeats Colgate, Bucknell wins out, and the Mountain Hawks, Raiders, and Bison all finish in a 6-1 tie for first, it would be up to the Patriot League athletic directors not involved in the tie to determine the automatic qualifier. Don’t count on four-loss Bucknell to come out on top in that scenario.

29. Fordham (7-2, 2-2 Patriot)

THE GAMES: Holy Cross (11/8 ), at Colgate (11/15), at Towson (11/22)

THE DEAL: Fordham would have to run the table and get some major help in order to win the Patriot League automatic, but they would be discussed as an at-large possibility at 10-2 with seven straight victories to end the year. The Rams’ two D-II triumphs would probably make it easier for the committee to exclude rather than include them.

30. Appalachian State (5-4, 3-2 Southern)

THE GAMES: at Elon (11/8 ), Western Carolina (11/15)

THE DEAL: Could the Mountaineers get in at 7-4? Only if Furman and The Citadel both lose once in the final three weeks, and the committee insists on including a second Southern Conference team. That would be weak, but it is not outside the realm of possibility.

31. Southeast Missouri (3-6, 3-2 Ohio Valley)

THE GAMES: Tennessee State (11/8 ), at Tennessee Tech (11/15), Jacksonville State (11/22)

THE DEAL: Even at 3-6, the Indians cling to hope. If they win out and Samford loses once, SEMO is in.

32. Maine (5-4, 4-3 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: at Morgan State (11/8 ), Villanova (11/15), at New Hampshire (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Black Bears’ chances at a third straight bid probably ended with an overtime loss to Delaware this past Saturday, but winning out and managing to finish in a tie for third in the A-10 might elicit some discussion about their case.

33. Eastern Kentucky (4-5, 3-2 Ohio Valley)

THE GAMES: Tennessee-Martin (11/8 ), at Tennessee State (11/15), Tennessee Tech (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Colonels are still mathematically alive for the OVC crown, but their loss to Jacksonville State means they’ll have a tough time winning a tie-breaker.

34. Bethune-Cookman (6-2, 3-2 MEAC)

THE GAMES: Hampton (11/8 ), at Howard (11/15), vs. Florida A&M (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Wildcats need to win out and get a ton of help to win the MEAC automatic. If they finish 9-2, B-CC could elicit some consideration for an at-large, but shouldn’t count on getting in.

35. James Madison (5-4, 4-3 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: at New Hampshire (11/8 ), Charleston Southern (11/15), Northeastern (11/22)

THE DEAL: The Dukes might get marginal consideration if they go 8-4, but only if they somehow finish third in the A-10 hierarchy. An absence of high-quality wins is likely to leave them on the outside looking in.


I didnt quite see why the sports reporters were saying NAU needed help from MSU to get in the field. This article shows that they dont.

I also like the fact that Mr. Moss thinks we still have a shot at a top 4 seed.
Considering none of the remaining teams Griz play are not ranked, Griz will need to really take it to the opponents real big, like against NAU, to really get a shot at a number 4 seed. And, naturally, must have several teams ranked above the Griz to lose, possibly by large scores depending on the quality of their opponent. The worse the team is that a higher ranked team loses to, the better it is for the Griz.

But, the most important thing to think about is the real unpublished poll that the playoff committee (Which Hogan is a member of) creates. Most often this has followed closely to the Sports Network poll, but not always the case.
More than likely, the Griz will be ranked #8 this week. Of the teams that remain ahead of us, several have yet to face each other....

UNI @ Southern Ill

UMass @ Delaware

Villanova @ Delaware

Obviously, somebody is going to lose in each game. Should Montana win out, I can see the Griz getting to #5.

Other teams that are still ranked higher but are definitely not in the clear due to tough games left....

McNeese vs. N'Western St.

McNeese @ Nicholls St.

Wofford @ Furman

I say a top four seed is very much within reach of the Griz.

**edit** I'm not associating getting into the top four in the rankings with getting a top four seed. But it certainly doesnt hurt to be ranked there.
I said it after the ISU game....I'll say it again.

IF the Griz win out....they will be a top 4 seed. The reason I say that:

-The commitee loves to look at how you are playing now. Our losses came earlier in the season.

-I think they wil also consider attendence potetial in the case of two teams being close. If Villanova and the Griz are both 10-2 and the comitee is split on who should be the #4 seed....don't think for a second that they will not bring up the fact that UM would bring more than 15,000 additional butts in the seat in a second round game.

-while the D2 loss might hurt.....I think the arguement coul easily be made that we our two games by a grand total of 4 points!!!!! Nobody stuck it to us...blew us out.

-The GPI ranks the BSC as the BEST conference in IAA. If the Griz win out we will be the best team from the best conference...and they do look at the polls...(including the GPI...I think)

-History and tradtion of the program in the playoffs. The committe is a lot more familiar w/ "The Griz" than they will be with "the salukies"...

-The kicker?......Wayne Hogan. He is on that comittee.....and will make the best case possible for the Griz gettin a seed.

This is all dependent on winning out. So right now the only thing that matters is SAC ST! It is the game of the year!
It's been posted elsewhere that:

Most 1-aa programs are not self supporting - they lose money.

Some schools are supporting a movement to cut scholarships - to save money.

It has been suggested that a bowl system replace the playoffs - because expenses are burdensome and income from the games cannot offset those expenses.

Some schools, if in a position (seeding) to host a game, would decline due to cost.

Already, the 1-aa playoff format is regionalized - as much to reduce costs as any other consideration (9-11).

Bottom Line - is the bottom line!
Cash is king- the dollar speaks

If there is any possible way to get their hands in 24000 pockets, the selection comittee will do so - as many times as they can - for the good of 1-aa.

Any criteria that can be leveraged to justify this action and seed us as high as possible will surely be employed, but it is window dressing.

It's the MONEY!