Thirteen seed!

[citygriz]

I do not care about the seed.

Once you're in the tournament, the goal is to win the tournament, and to win the tournament, you have to play and beat the best.

Bring it on.

no, no, we would not have won a game in 2006 had we not been a 12 seed. and we're not gonna beat a one or two seed this year. chance against a three, much better chance against a four. this is the big dance, not the 1-aa playoffs. the seed makes a big difference. just ask a tomato.

seed does make a difference, but there are teams out there we flat out do not match up with...you can rule out 16 seed, thats not an issue..and same with 15...we arent going to be a 15....im sure there are going to be some 5 seeds that present worse match up problems than some 4 seeds...in all reality all we can hope for is a good seed and favorable matchup..[/quote

agreed. that matchup against nevada was sweet--strait against fazekas. the problem for us now is facing the quality big men that we never see in the bsc. this is where a qvale or even a reader would come in handy.

 

[becker2117]

I do not care about the seed.

Once you're in the tournament, the goal is to win the tournament, and to win the tournament, you have to play and beat the best.

Bring it on.

no, no, we would not have won a game in 2006 had we not been a 12 seed. and we're not gonna beat a one or two seed this year. chance against a three, much better chance against a four. this is the big dance, not the 1-aa playoffs. the seed makes a big difference. just ask a tomato.

seed does make a difference, but there are teams out there we flat out do not match up with...you can rule out 16 seed, thats not an issue..and same with 15...we arent going to be a 15....im sure there are going to be some 5 seeds that present worse match up problems than some 4 seeds...in all reality all we can hope for is a good seed and favorable matchup..[/quote

agreed. that matchup against nevada was sweet--strait against fazekas. the problem for us now is facing the quality big men that we never see in the bsc. this is where a qvale or even a reader would come in handy.

ya, even though ward isnt a classic bigman i like his toughness on d, but the problem is they are all going to go after derek...he does his best but and i love him but its just hard for him to guard a skilled post player...i think we have to offense abilities to stick with teams despite this...we dont have to rely on one or two guys to stoke it...it can come from any player, and anywhere on the court...when players are off, others pick them up...a true TEAM....excited for sunday to see who we play, so i can disect and overanalyze it haha

 

[AllWeatherFan]

I do not care about the seed.

Once you're in the tournament, the goal is to win the tournament, and to win the tournament, you have to play and beat the best.

Bring it on.

no, no, we would not have won a game in 2006 had we not been a 12 seed. and we're not gonna beat a one or two seed this year. chance against a three, much better chance against a four. this is the big dance, not the 1-aa playoffs. the seed makes a big difference. just ask a tomato.

So you only want to win one game? That's called the small dance.

 

[becker2117]

I do not care about the seed.

Once you're in the tournament, the goal is to win the tournament, and to win the tournament, you have to play and beat the best.

Bring it on.

no, no, we would not have won a game in 2006 had we not been a 12 seed. and we're not gonna beat a one or two seed this year. chance against a three, much better chance against a four. this is the big dance, not the 1-aa playoffs. the seed makes a big difference. just ask a tomato.

So you only want to win one game? That's called the small dance.

of course we want to win as many games as possiable...but to be upset if we win one or two, but not six is foolish.....u think VCU fans were upset they didnt win it all last year? Of course when every you play a game, u play to win....so yes they are going there to win every game they play, which is what i kinda think ur getting at...but its not the end all be all

 

[citygriz]

I do not care about the seed.

Once you're in the tournament, the goal is to win the tournament, and to win the tournament, you have to play and beat the best.

Bring it on.

no, no, we would not have won a game in 2006 had we not been a 12 seed. and we're not gonna beat a one or two seed this year. chance against a three, much better chance against a four. this is the big dance, not the 1-aa playoffs. the seed makes a big difference. just ask a tomato.

So you only want to win one game? That's called the small dance.

i want to win the first game. after you get that first one under your belt, things open up. remember, we were right there at the half of the second game against boston college. second half, they hit their shots, we didn't. but once they've won that first game, teams just seem to take on an aura of invincibility. we've seen it with george mason, butler, v.c.u.--you could put together quite a list. but ya gotta win the first one. and that'w where the seeding is critical.

 

[becker2117]

I do not care about the seed.

Once you're in the tournament, the goal is to win the tournament, and to win the tournament, you have to play and beat the best.

Bring it on.

no, no, we would not have won a game in 2006 had we not been a 12 seed. and we're not gonna beat a one or two seed this year. chance against a three, much better chance against a four. this is the big dance, not the 1-aa playoffs. the seed makes a big difference. just ask a tomato.

So you only want to win one game? That's called the small dance.

i want to win the first game. after you get that first one under your belt, things open up. remember, we were right there at the half of the second game against boston college. second half, they hit their shots, we didn't. but once they've won that first game, teams just seem to take on an aura of invincibility. we've seen it with george mason, butler, v.c.u.--you could put together quite a list. but ya gotta win the first one. and that'w where the seeding is critical.

well put...must be thought of as just simply winning each game you play..one at a time....looking at that bracket and thinking outlasting all these teams would seem very daunting...but winning a game, very simple. just go out and out play your opponent...every time u win, the field is cut in half.

GO GRIZ!

 

[jon]

No shot at 13, I am afraid. The quality wins are just not there outside LBSU and Weber State, and there is the bad loss to North Dakota.

Just think the Big Sky was too bad this year to get higher than a 14 without a lot of meat in the non-conference... I still see 14/15, right on the line there, in my opinion.

We have more quality wins this year than we did in 2005-2006 when we were a 12 seed. Our only quality (top 100) win during the regular season that year was against Stanford (85). We also had 5 bad losses. Boise St (176), NAU (121), Weber (264), Idaho State (210), and Portland State (195).

In 2009-2010 when we were a 14 seed, our RPI was 90something. We had 7 bad losses, and 2 quality wins (both over weber).

This year we have 3 quality wins. LBSU (35, which is a top 50 win..that's a real good one), and 2 over Weber (68 at the moment). We do have 3 bad losses though too. ND (260), San Francisco (137) and Oregon State (147).

A 12 seed isn't out of the question. The committee loves hot teams, and there aren't many mid majors as hot as the Griz right now, winning 20 of their last 21, and 14 in a row. Our RPI was around 82 before the Weber game, so it'll probably be mid 70s. 12 or 13 is likely I'd say. 14 would be bullshit...and a 15 would be reason to get out the pitch forks and torches.

I understand what you are saying, but I think this is what the committee will see:
- The Big Sky, other then Weber State and Montana, was not good. Conference RPI was 25 out of 33, and there were few quality wins outside of conference.
- LBSU and Weber State twice are really nice wins, but all at home. The Griz' best road win was probably Portland State.

Now, they are playing as well as anyone in the country (obviously all the wins and the fact that they rolled in the conference tournament championship game), but I think it will be tough for them to crawl above 14. I just think that when the committee compares similar teams, some others have more impressive wins, and that is what they are going to see. Obviously that doesn't mean they are better than Montana, but you guys know as well as I do that that doesn't always matter when it comes to the selection committee.

I sincerely hope I am wrong... it would be a shame if the Griz got stuck with a 15 seed.

 

[HighLineGRIZ]

I agree with Jon. I think a lot of people are way too overly optimistic on here thinking 11 or 12 is attainable or deserved. I believe if we did score a 12 seed, there would be an uproar by the national punidts. I would be very happy with a 13 seed, but I expect we will be a 14 at best. We have a very good team but we haven't proven it against credible competition and our resume doesn't stack up well against the teams looking at 11-13 seeds. Our conference was weak and our non-conference schedule was weak as well. If LBSU does not win their tournament we will have exactly zero wins agains the tournament field. That does not bode well for warranting a higher seed. If we want to contend for higher than a 13 seed, with the new format, we have to play a tougher OOC schedule. bottom line.

 

[ozzie]

Like Coach tinks said, of course we hope for a good seed (12 or 13) but what it really comes down to is matchups. Like we saw in this conf tourney, nobody would argue weber is a much better team than eastern...yet eastern gave us fits, and weebs was a peice of cake, pretty much the last 2 games we played aganist them were pretty decisive...Without having a "true" post/enforcer down low it really does come down to matchups i think..Big quick long athletic post players are very tough on us....if we play a team that is more of a guard oriented team i really like our chances, A LOT...I know we want a good seed but im sure there are going to be some 3 seeds out there that we match up better with than a 4 or 5....I am really hoping for a good seed, but what i am really praying for is a team we match up with.

So what high seeded teams would we match up well against? Like specific examples of guard oriented teams? I haven't watched much of what is going on in the "power 6" conf's so I have no idea...

 

[Evizzerate]

We want Michigan.

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

Montana's RPI in 2006 was 57. That's why they got a 12 seed.

They had a much better SOS. As some have pointed out, their best win against Stanford wasn't as good as the Long Beach win this year - but there were so many teams they played in the top half of all teams (LMU twice, Stanford, Milwaukee, Oral Roberts). Drake and Santa Clara were in the 180's. The Big Sky had better teams that year too. NAU, EWU, and Sac St were all top 150 teams. The Griz had 12 top 150 wins. Even PSU and ISU were at about 200. The worst Big Sky team that year was Weber at 266.

I remember thinking they were probably a 13 seed, with a chance for a 12 seed.


This year Montana has an RPI of 77. That's good for a 14 seed, maybe a 13 seed if a few more conference tournaments have upsets (like Detroit over Valpo, and Western Kentucky instead of Middle Tennessee).

They've got the good win against LBSU, but only have 5 top 150 wins. The Big Sky is much weaker. There are 5 teams worse than Weber was in 2006 (UNC, MSU, ISU, Sac St, NAU).


So - if you want to look at both teams on paper, the 2006 team had a better resume. If both teams were in the same tournament, the 2006 team would definitely be seeded higher.

Now if they played each other, that would be interesting. Cherry and Jamar are the best guard combo since Criswell and Matthews. I think Andrew Strait would eat up the 2012 Griz interior D though. He would go for 20+ easy. The 2006 team went 8 deep. The 2012 team barely goes 6 deep.

PG: Matthews - Cherry
SG: Criswell - Jamar
SF: Dlouhy - Selvig
PF: Hasquet - Steward
C: Strait - Ward
6th: Ellis - Stockton
7th: Martin - DeShields
8th: Chavez

The length/size/depth of the 2006 team gives them the edge, in my opinion. I'd say the 2006 team would win 70% of the time between the two. The main advantage for the 2012 team would be to get up and down the court, but that would highlight the lack of depth too.

Two of the best teams in Griz history though. No doubt about it.

 

[AZGrizFan]

The 2006 team went 8 deep. The 2012 team barely goes 6 deep.

PG: Matthews - Cherry
SG: Criswell - Jamar
SF: Dlouhy - Selvig
PF: Hasquet - Steward
C: Strait - Ward
6th: Ellis - Stockton
7th: Martin - DeShields
8th: Chavez

It's that fact that scares me most in the tourney. If Selvig gets into foul trouble, we're screwed.

 

[Grizbeer]

MGR good write up, I agree with you the '06 team looked better on paper with the RPI, schedule and depth. Also helping the '06 team was that was the second consecutive tournament appearance. What will help this year's team is the winning streak. The '06 team was 4-3 in the second 1/2 of conference play, so they got credit for getting hot at tournament time, but riding the win streak will help the '12 team to offset the early season disappointments that hurt the RPI. That said I think a 13 seed would be good, 14 ok, 12 great, and 15 or higher BS.

BTW the Griz have always played their games in the West when they go to the NCAA tournament. I see no reason for that to not continue, and Griz should get placed in Portland.

edit - As far as Selvig foul issues, most** of his fouls are either offensive when he goes around a defender to the basket, or defensive when he is standing straight up with arms raised and the shooter leans into him. I don't see them calling those fouls in the NCAA tournament. I really expect Selvig to have an outstanding 1st round game, depending of course on the match ups, but I can see him hitting a lot of 3's having few fouls, and keeping his head in the game and really excelling.

**after a couple calls Selvig thinks are bad he always seems to pick up a frustration foul. That is how he gets in foul trouble.

 

[AllWeatherFan]

I believe we could compete with many 2-3 seeds. While Montana always used to get outquicked by teams, nobody is quicker than Will Cherry. It all depends on whether or not our shots drop, and whether we can slow down the better bigs out there enough to hang in the game. But if our shots are falling, we can play with almost anybody, at least for four quarters on a given day.

 

[becker2117]

I believe we could compete with many 2-3 seeds. While Montana always used to get outquicked by teams, nobody is quicker than Will Cherry. It all depends on whether or not our shots drop, and whether we can slow down the better bigs out there enough to hang in the game. But if our shots are falling, we can play with almost anybody, at least for four quarters on a given day.

had to say it, and dont take it the wrong way im just having a lil fun with ya but....i beleive they will be playing two halves :thumb:

all joking aside, i also belive if our shots are falling...we are going to be a very tough out

 

[AllWeatherFan]

True! :lol:

 

[jon]

Good call, I think Michigan would be a nice matchup for the Griz. If a 15 seed, Duke or Missouri would be interesting matchups. Both teams rely on the three a lot and perimeter play, and defending the perimeter is a strength of the Griz.

 

[becker2117]

Good call, I think Michigan would be a nice matchup for the Griz. If a 15 seed, Duke or Missouri would be interesting matchups. Both teams rely on the three a lot and perimeter play, and defending the perimeter is a strength of the Griz.

i hope we are not a 15 but if we were...i promise you our boys would GET UP to play duke..if you need any extra incentive to get up for a tourney game (which they wouldnt, but) play duke in the first round...our perimeter D is fantastic and ill take my chances that not all 5 of our guys are going to be cold shooting the ball....we have 5 players that can stroke it, that is huge...if one guy is off, there are others who can make the same shots. Duke would be a tough game for us for sure, but definatly interesting. with all that said haha highly doubt, HIGHLY doubt we get put on the 15 line

 

[garizzalies]

I agree with most of what is being said here (the matchup is more important than the seed itself). I would rather play a #2 or #3 guard-oriented team, like Mizzou or Duke, than a #4 or #5 post-oriented team (like most teams from the big10 or big12). If we draw a wisconsin-type team (Baylor?), it could get real ugly, real fast. We simply do not have the size to compete with those teams, but maybe we have the speed to hang with a perimeter team.

 

[Brock Landers]

I personally think we will end up with a 13 seed (although, having followed this team, believe a 11 or 12 seed would be deserved).

The thing that helped us get a 12 seed in '06 (besides the Stanford win and regionalization) was that we had a great showing the year before as a 16 seed against UW. Not making it last year could hurt the team this year.

There were also less play-in games to squeeze the mid-majors back into