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Take a statistical look at the pass defense

BWahlberg

Well-known member
DONOR
Wanted to post this seperately from the pass defense thread. One thing I think that a lot of us are potentially overlooking is that this pass D is relying upon the same guys from last year, who are actually improving quite a bit over the prior year. I don't think it's realistic to just expect the entire pass D to go from last in the conference, statistically, to the very best.

These guys are improving quite a bit, and the stats tell the story.

2012: 288.4 passing yards per game
2013: 255.2 passing yards per game

2012: 12 interceptions in 11 games
2013: 13 interceptions in 9 games

2012: 13 first downs per game allowed by passing
2013: 11.5 first downs per game allowed by passing

2012: 22 allowed passing TDs, avg 2 TDs per game
2013: 17 allowed passing TDs, ave 1.8 TDs per game

And there's also the individual players, I'm breaking the tackles down on a per game average so it lines up:

Matt Hermanson

2012: avg 6 tackles per game. Had 2 INTs and 4 PBUs
2013: avg 7.4 tackles per game. Has 0 INTs but 2 forced fumbles and 1 recovery

Bo Tully:

2012: avg 5.8 tackles per game. Had 2 INTs and 6 PBUs
2013: avg 4.5 tackles per game. Has 3 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 PBUs

Nate Harris:

2012: avg 2.4 tackles per game. Had 1 INT, 4 PBUs
2013: avg 3.5 tackles per game. Has 3 INTs, 3 PBUs

Cheif Goodwin:

2012: avg 2.4 tackles per game. Had 1 INT, 2 PBUs
2013: avg 3 tackles per game. Has 2 INTs, 14 PBUs

JP Kanongata'a:

2012: 6.5 tackles per game. Had 1 INT, 4 PBUs, 1 forced fumble
2013: 7.3 tackles per game. Has 0 INTs or PBUS, 1 fumble recovered

Brock Coyle:

2012: 9.7 tackles per game. Had 0 INTs, 4 PBUs, 1 fumble recovery, 2 forced fumbles
2013: 9.5 tackles per game. Has 2 INTs, 3 PBUs, 2 forced fumbles

Jordan Tripp:

2012: 7.8 tackles per game. Had 1 INT, 3 PBUs, 1 fumble recovery, 4 forced fumbles
2013: 7.6 tackles per game. Has 2 INTs, 4 PBUs, 2 fumble recoveries
 
I think I would call that "incremental" improvement. However, improvement just the same, and your post brings some good perspective to the the discussion of pass defense. thanks for the analysis - always much appreciated. Confirms my gut feeling that pass defense/secondary play was noticeably better, but still occasionally very frustrating.
 
mikegriz said:
I think I would call that "incremental" improvement. However, improvement just the same, and your post brings some good perspective to the the discussion of pass defense. thanks for the analysis - always much appreciated. Confirms my gut feeling that pass defense/secondary play was noticeably better, but still occasionally very frustrating.

Bingo - improving but not totally fixed.
 
So basically, the defense is doing well enough to keep the team in the game compared to last year where they tended to run out of gas at the fourth quarter. (Granted, having an offense that can stay on the field also helps).
 
BWahlberg said:
StumptownGriz said:
We suck a little bit less than last year? ;)

Shocking right? :thumb:

In all seriousness, thanks for posting those stats so we can make statistical comparisons as apposed to emotional beer fueled freak outs. He didn't have his best game coverage-wise against Sac but to me Nate Harris might be the most improved player in our secondary. Hermy is playing the pass ok, and very well against the run. I would consider him for most improved but his struggles last year really seemed like they were due to health and playing in a Secondary without Trumaine Johnson. Bottom line this defense, Gregorak and secondary specifically still have a very long way to go.
 
StumptownGriz said:
BWahlberg said:
StumptownGriz said:
We suck a little bit less than last year? ;)

Shocking right? :thumb:

In all seriousness, thanks for posting those stats so we can make statistical comparisons as apposed to emotional beer fueled freak outs. He didn't have his best game coverage-wise against Sac but to me Nate Harris might be the most improved player in our secondary. Hermy is playing the pass ok, and very well against the run. I would consider him for most improved but his struggles last year really seemed like they were due to health and playing in a Secondary without Trumaine Johnson. Bottom line this defense, Gregorak and secondary specifically still have a very long way to go.

And just what's wrong with those? :lol:
 
StumptownGriz said:
BWahlberg said:
StumptownGriz said:
We suck a little bit less than last year? ;)

Shocking right? :thumb:

In all seriousness, thanks for posting those stats so we can make statistical comparisons as apposed to emotional beer fueled freak outs. He didn't have his best game coverage-wise against Sac but to me Nate Harris might be the most improved player in our secondary. Hermy is playing the pass ok, and very well against the run. I would consider him for most improved but his struggles last year really seemed like they were due to health and playing in a Secondary without Trumaine Johnson. Bottom line this defense, Gregorak and secondary specifically still have a very long way to go.

Harris (to me) seems to be going through some of the growing pains a newly minted starter sees. He's up and then down a bit, but overall his numbers this year are highly improved. He's got pretty good instinct when the ball is in the air and has all of the physical traits to keep up with just about any WR in the conference. The guy is just a sophomore, he'll only get better.

And yeah the secondary has a longer way to go, but they're showing that they are on the right track. It's mostly the same guys from last year, but as I heard their coach say a few weeks back, the guys are playing better this year at their position because they're more confident and sure of their abilities.
 
All the sugar coating or what ever you want to call it cannot make up for bad tactics, plain and simple! I would like to have Bo Tully go to Bozeman and get with the Bozeman Hawk high school coach and let him teach him how to tackle correctly! Bo has such great potential and he is just missing that one ingredient to put over the top. It doesn't have to be Bo, just one of the defensive players to get this lesson in Bozeman...
 
BWahlberg said:
StumptownGriz said:
BWahlberg said:
StumptownGriz said:
We suck a little bit less than last year? ;)

Shocking right? :thumb:

In all seriousness, thanks for posting those stats so we can make statistical comparisons as apposed to emotional beer fueled freak outs. He didn't have his best game coverage-wise against Sac but to me Nate Harris might be the most improved player in our secondary. Hermy is playing the pass ok, and very well against the run. I would consider him for most improved but his struggles last year really seemed like they were due to health and playing in a Secondary without Trumaine Johnson. Bottom line this defense, Gregorak and secondary specifically still have a very long way to go.

Harris (to me) seems to be going through some of the growing pains a newly minted starter sees. He's up and then down a bit, but overall his numbers this year are highly improved. He's got pretty good instinct when the ball is in the air and has all of the physical traits to keep up with just about any WR in the conference. The guy is just a sophomore, he'll only get better.

And yeah the secondary has a longer way to go, but they're showing that they are on the right track. It's mostly the same guys from last year, but as I heard their coach say a few weeks back, the guys are playing better this year at their position because they're more confident and sure of their abilities.

Yes, he has room to improve, but one thing the guy does well is hit! There are some receivers and running backs in the league who will remember his name by the time he's finished at UM.
 
It's a good thing the Griz have some things going for them besides the pass (non)defense. That 255 yards per game given up, BTW, places them #100 out of the 122 FCS teams. They'd be SOOL if the defense wasn't sitting at #35 in rushing yards allowed (138.7 ypg), and at #34 in scoring defense (23.2 ppg, up after this last game).

Last but not least, the record would not be so rosy if the Griz weren't #11 in scoring, averaging 39.3 ppg.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
It's a good thing the Griz have some things going for them besides the pass (non)defense. That 255 yards per game given up, BTW, places them #100 out of the 122 FCS teams. They'd be SOOL if the defense wasn't sitting at #35 in rushing yards allowed (138.7 ypg), and at #34 in scoring defense (23.2 ppg, up after this last game).

Last but not least, the record would not be so rosy if the Griz weren't #11 in scoring, averaging 39.3 ppg.

So you're saying that the Griz, like almost all teams, have their strengths and their weaknesses, and that sometimes you need the strengths to make up for the weaknesses??
 
Lots of "if's" in that comment, IdaGriz. If the Griz had not scored that many points per game, then it's pretty obvious they would have lost those game. You can make "if's" say just about anything you want them to. If we weren't Griz fans, would we care?!?!?!
 
'68griz said:
Lots of "if's" in that comment, IdaGriz. If the Griz had not scored that many points per game, then it's pretty obvious they would have lost those game. You can make "if's" say just about anything you want them to. If we weren't Griz fans, would we care?!?!?!
Did not at mean for the comment to sound negative (sorry). ;)

Personally, I think having so much trouble with pass defense, yet still being in/near the top quarter in scoring defense is pretty impressive. It says that what we see as "bend but don't break" -- and bitch about -- is a fairly effective strategy. Couple that with a potent offense and you get exactly what UM has: a 7-2 record with a shot at the playoffs.
 
The ONLY way these "stats" would have any validity is if the Griz played the same schedule as last year, and even then it is a stretch because the players are not the same. It is like comparing traffic in Seattle even though one day the weather might be sunny and one year later is is raining like a mofo. Given the number of starters returning, the relatively easy schedule, the "stats" should be markedly improved. How can tackling be so crappy with all the studs and how 'scary fast" the D is supposed to be?
 
In my opinion the problem with the pass D is a lack of pressure from the front 4. We need to blitz in order to get pressure and that exposes marginal db's.
 
Htowngriz said:
IdaGriz01 said:
It's a good thing the Griz have some things going for them besides the pass (non)defense. That 255 yards per game given up, BTW, places them #100 out of the 122 FCS teams. They'd be SOOL if the defense wasn't sitting at #35 in rushing yards allowed (138.7 ypg), and at #34 in scoring defense (23.2 ppg, up after this last game).

Last but not least, the record would not be so rosy if the Griz weren't #11 in scoring, averaging 39.3 ppg.

So you're saying that the Griz, like almost all teams, have their strengths and their weaknesses, and that sometimes you need the strengths to make up for the weaknesses??

Nobady gave a Hauck about defense when Air Read was putting up 50 per game...
 
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