Stitt 2017 vs Hauck 2009 (offense & defense)

[ordigger]

So on another site, I posted some interesting data, in response to Growlers contention that Stitt was a pass oriented offense, and we would try to emulate Hauck's more balanced offense. Some very surprising data here.




Here's some numbers that may surprise you.....

Rushing Plays this year: 444
Passing Plays this year: 416

So much for theory we didn't run a balanced offense. However the results are different....

AVG Rushing: 149.8 per game
AVG Passing: 305.5 per game

In response to the numbers were flawed because the rushing plays were mainly padded against the two body bag games.....


I thought the same thing. I expected to see 60% pass plays in 2017, but not the case. The telling number in support of the idea, that we were still a passing team is to take it one step further.

2017
Rushing - 3.7 yards per play (pretty bad)
Passing - 8.1 yards per play (that is total plays - including incompletions)

Thus even though we had on average 3 more running plays per game, rushing plays averaged less than half what a pass play would. I think this shows simply that our passing was clearly the better option for that team, because they had more success. Now look at same data from Bobby's last team in 2009.

2009
Rushing: 4.3 Yards per play (658 total plays in 15 games)
Passing: 8.4 Yards per play (416 total plays)

Again I was surprised that Bobby really ran running plays 60% of the time which means his team was more run oriented than as balanced as Stitt's team. The glaring difference is that overall they gained almost 1 yard more per play for the season. That means for the first 3 downs of every series, on average, the 2009 team went 3 yards further, and most of that on the ground. Not really comparing total plays because the 2009 team played 15 games, vs 11 for this one. In 2009, not only was the passing slightly better, but the rushing was a lot better.

As for his theory on the body games padding the rushing stats, not the case. 78 total rushing plays vs 69 passing for the Valpo and Savannah State games. The biggest difference was the NAU game with 53 rushing plays, and 32 passing plays.

And the final interesting thing....

2017: 78 plays per game
2009: 72 plays per game

Not really what Stitt was shooting for was it.

 

[SaskGriz]

Solid stat work there.

 

[AZGrizFan]

I stopped reading at you trying to disprove Growler. Why bother, when you know that EVERYTHING he believes is a false narrative?


OTOH: good work.

 

[ordigger]

I stopped reading at you trying to disprove Growler. Why bother, when you know that EVERYTHING he believes is a false narrative?


OTOH: good work.

Yes, my data proved his point, and he still stated that stats can be misleading, even though they supported him.....lol. Some people gotta argue.

 

[GGNez]

Digger, any idea if Hauck’s style of play remained fairly consistent when he was at UNLV?

 

[ordigger]

Digger, any idea if Hauck’s style of play remained fairly consistent when he was at UNLV?

Timm Rosenbach and he were together in 2013 & 2014.....

2013
Record: 7-6
Plays: 76 per game
Rushing: 507 plays, 4.4 yards per play
Passing: 483 plays, 6.4 yards per play

2014
Record: 2-11
Plays: 74 per game
Rushing: 466 plays, 3.6 yards per play
Passing: 498 plays, 6.7 yards per play

I see two patterns in their 2 years together. First, in 2013, they ran the ball well, but their success on passing yardage seems low. Could be a lot of bubble screens (Growler will love that), or just short drop of passes. Obviously they didn't go down field much, and they had a pretty good QB if I recall, in Tim Cornett.

The 2nd thing I see, is painfully obvious why they struggled to win. They simply didn't run the ball as well as the year before. Plays per game, and yards passing were consistent in both years.

It is imperative in my mind, and I'm sure most already knew this, that we need to improve our run game, at least 1 yard per carry. Look at what both NDSU and JMU did yesterday on the ground. Effectively use that run game, and then we have Gresch as a weapon to pass the ball, and he throws it better downfield it seems, then he does drop off passes. Hopefully BH and TR recognize that, and don't throw so many short yardage passes.

 

[ordigger]

So let's flip it, and look at the defensive side of the ball.....

Hauck 2009
Plays per game allowed: 72 plays
Rushing: 484 plays allowed, 3.4 yards per play given up
Passing: 595 plays allowed, 6.2 yards per play given up

Stitt 2017
Plays per game allowed: 77 plays
Rushing: 457 plays allowed, 4.1 yards per play given up
Passing: 391 plays allowed, 7.1 yards per play given up

Obviously this is the game changer. Hauck's defense gave up much less yardage per play on both rushing and passing. The defense wins championships is validated by these numbers 100% IMO. Comparing the two teams we see that the 2009 team was allowing 1.5 yard less per play, and that times 72 shows and 108 yard difference in each game. Amazing.....so how about net? What did they give up vs what they gained?

Hauck 2009
Rushing: 174 more rushing plays by Griz vs opponent, +0.9 yards gained vs opponent per play
Passing: 174 more passing plays allowed by Griz vs opponent, +2.2 yards gained vs opponent per play
Total: Plays even, +3.1 yards gained per play for entire season

Stitt 2017
Rushing: 13 more rushing plays allowed by Griz vs opponent, -0.4 yards gained vs opponent per play
Passing: 25 more passing plays allowed by Griz vs opponent, +1.0 yards gained vs opponent per play
Total: We allowed 38 more plays for season, +0.6 yards gained per play for entire season

Number speak for themselves. Hauck's teams were netting 2.5 yards per play for their offense vs defense. Not only is their the huge glaring difference on rushing (1.3 yards), but even for Stitt's bread and butter, his spread offense, the results were less less successful net wise (1.2 yards).

 

[GGNez]

Digger, any idea if Hauck’s style of play remained fairly consistent when he was at UNLV?

Timm Rosenbach and he were together in 2013 & 2014.....

2013
Record: 7-6
Plays: 76 per game
Rushing: 507 plays, 4.4 yards per play
Passing: 483 plays, 6.4 yards per play

2014
Record: 2-11
Plays: 74 per game
Rushing: 466 plays, 3.6 yards per play
Passing: 498 plays, 6.7 yards per play

I see two patterns in their 2 years together. First, in 2013, they ran the ball well, but their success on passing yardage seems low. Could be a lot of bubble screens (Growler will love that), or just short drop of passes. Obviously they didn't go down field much, and they had a pretty good QB if I recall, in Tim Cornett.

The 2nd thing I see, is painfully obvious why they struggled to win. They simply didn't run the ball as well as the year before. Plays per game, and yards passing were consistent in both years.

It is imperative in my mind, and I'm sure most already knew this, that we need to improve our run game, at least 1 yard per carry. Look at what both NDSU and JMU did yesterday on the ground. Effectively use that run game, and then we have Gresch as a weapon to pass the ball, and he throws it better downfield it seems, then he does drop off passes. Hopefully BH and TR recognize that, and don't throw so many short yardage passes.

Well that is some damn fine stat work, Or-Ding-Dong-Diggity.

Thanks!! :thumb:

 

[AZGrizFan]

So let's flip it, and look at the defensive side of the ball.....

Hauck 2009
Plays per game allowed: 72 plays
Rushing: 484 plays allowed, 3.4 yards per play given up
Passing: 595 plays allowed, 6.2 yards per play given up

Stitt 2017
Plays per game allowed: 77 plays
Rushing: 457 plays allowed, 4.1 yards per play given up
Passing: 391 plays allowed, 7.1 yards per play given up

Obviously this is the game changer. Hauck's defense gave up much less yardage per play on both rushing and passing. The defense wins championships is validated by these numbers 100% IMO.

Except it didn’t.