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STATS Poll Guesses (Sept 25)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Sadly, my guess is that the Griz are about to exit the top-10 after their 1-pt loss. But maybe not. After years of watching the FCS pollsters, I’ve about come to the conclusion that they hate the funky offense that CP runs and therefore tend to punish them for it while cutting their opponents some slack. Sounds crazy, I know, but -- as someone said on another thread -- the polls never seem to give CP any credit. Still, with three teams in the 20-25 range losing, I had to find three worthy candidates to replace them. It would be mind-boggling if CP wasn’t one of them. But not too high … because it’s Cal Poly, after all.

Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 North Dakota State (3-0) [1]
#2 Sam Houston State (2-0) [2]
#3 Jacksonville State (3-1) [3]
#4 Eastern Washington (3-1) [4]
#5 Chattanooga (4-0) [5]
#6 Richmond (3-1) [7]
#7 Citadel (3-0) [10]
#8 Western Illinois (3-0 [13]
#9 James Madison (3-1) [11]
#10 Chas. Southern (2-2) [12]
#11 Montana (2-1) [6]
#12 Illinois State (2-2) [9]
#13 Northern Iowa (1-2) [14]
#14 William & Mary (2-2) [8]
#15 South Dakota St (1-2) [15]
#16 Youngstown State (2-1) [16]
#17 Coastal Carolina (3-1) [17]
#18 Eastern Illinois (3-1) [18]
#19 Villanova (3-1) [19]
#20 N Carolina A&T (2-1) [21]
#21 Albany (4-0) [22]
#22 Indiana State (3-1) [NR]
#23 Cal Poly (3-1) [NR]
#24 McNeese (2-2) [24]
#25 Stephen F. Austin (3-1) [NR]

NR Stony Brook (2-2) [20]
NR Colgate (1-2) [23]
NR Portland State (1-3) [25]

I dropped W&M six spots (one more than the Griz) because they lost by 17 points at home to a team (Elon) that did not receive any votes in the last poll. Their 2-2 record looks about right where they ended up. Conversely, I did not drop Illinois State quite so much because they lost on the road by just a FG. On the other side, I moved Indiana State into the top-25 for that win … even though they got just 1 point in the last poll. It is the MVFC, after all.

Along the same lines, I gave Western Illinois a nice bump up for their “upset” of FBS Northern Illinois. We watched parts of that game and it really wasn’t as close as the final score looked.

NAU received the most “Other” votes in the last poll ...but they lost. Came down to a choice between Harvard (2-0) and Stephen F. Austin (3-1) -- since I had already moved CP up. I went with SFA, but it would not surprise me if the pollsters put Harvard in instead.
 
Hmmm ... was just reading Haley's STATS.com "Top 25 Roundup" -- where he featured the Griz-'Stang game. http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20160924153855521473204&ref=hea&tm=&src=FCS

Seems like the (short) write-up about the game could help UM and should definitely help CP. I still think the Griz will drop to something like 11-12, but maybe the razor-thin margin could keep them a spot or two higher. But, hopefully, Cal Poly will benefit a lot -- making my guess way low. By rights, IMO, CP should be ranked something like 12-15. Some would say higher, but hardly ever does a team go from being out of the top-25 to higher than mid-level.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Hmmm ... was just reading Haley's STATS.com "Top 25 Roundup" -- where he featured the Griz-'Stang game. http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20160924153855521473204&ref=hea&tm=&src=FCS

Seems like the (short) write-up about the game could help UM and should definitely help CP. I still think the Griz will drop to something like 11-12, but maybe the razor-thin margin could keep them a spot or two higher. But, hopefully, Cal Poly will benefit a lot -- making my guess way low. By rights, IMO, CP should be ranked something like 12-15. Some would say higher, but hardly ever does a team go from being out of the top-25 to higher than mid-level.

CP is playing, and has the games to prove, they are a top 10 team. If the pollsters want to keep them down then that is their choice but simply put CP is a top 10 team as of right now.
 
Eriul said:
IdaGriz01 said:
Hmmm ... was just reading Haley's STATS.com "Top 25 Roundup" -- where he featured the Griz-'Stang game. http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20160924153855521473204&ref=hea&tm=&src=FCS

Seems like the (short) write-up about the game could help UM and should definitely help CP. I still think the Griz will drop to something like 11-12, but maybe the razor-thin margin could keep them a spot or two higher. But, hopefully, Cal Poly will benefit a lot -- making my guess way low. By rights, IMO, CP should be ranked something like 12-15. Some would say higher, but hardly ever does a team go from being out of the top-25 to higher than mid-level.
CP is playing, and has the games to prove, they are a top 10 team. If the pollsters want to keep them down then that is their choice but simply put CP is a top 10 team as of right now.
No argument from my perspective. With their current 3-1 record -- including 2 wins against highly-ranked FCS teams -- you'd think they'd get more respect. But the pollsters are seldom that sensible ... or willing to admit how wrong their early prognostications were. That 3-1 record fits very nicely with #17 Coastal Carolina and #18 Eastern Illinois, so my revised guess (here, not in the list at the top) is that CP could move to about a #15-16 or thereabouts. Not in the top-10, but much better than my initial guess of #23.
 
Early polls are meaningless. Last week's poll had called poly unranked while a 1-2 sdsu team that call poly had just beat at sdsu was ranked#15.

That had me scratching my head wondering what those who vote could possibly be thinking.
But it's still early in the season and all the griz need to worry about is beating SUU handily.

We should be ranked somewhere around10-12 and call poly should be top 10.
 
behappp said:
Early polls are meaningless. Last week's poll had called poly unranked while a 1-2 sdsu team that call poly had just beat at sdsu was ranked#15.

That had me scratching my head wondering what those who vote could possibly be thinking.
But it's still early in the season and all the griz need to worry about is beating SUU handily.

We should be ranked somewhere around 10-12 and call poly should be top 10.
"Thinking" might not be a favored activity among a lot of pollsters. :lol: :lol:

IMO, about now, with most teams having played 4 games, is when the polls starting giving us some meaningful results -- at least in "broad strokes." But I also think we'll always have oddities ... where a team that drubbed a highly ranked team is still unranked, or ranked way below the team they beat up on. Hell, even the "Gridiron Power Index" and other "team strength" stats have not proven to be particularly good predictors of who might win if two specific teams meet on the field. But ... these all give us something to discuss and argue about. ;)
 
Hmmm... at this point, I wonder if Jacksonville State and EWU should be ranked ahead of Sam Houston. Sam Houston, even though they're 3-0, looks to have had a very easy preseason schedule so far while EWU has had a much better resume.
 
get'em_griz said:
Hmmm... at this point, I wonder if Jacksonville State and EWU should be ranked ahead of Sam Houston. Sam Houston, even though they're 3-0, looks to have had a very easy preseason schedule so far while EWU has had a much better resume.
Good point: SHSU has won against a D-II (OK Panhandle), Lamar (which has not won a game yet and was 5-6 last year) and Houston Baptist (2-2, but went 2-9 last year). J-State's only loss was to LSU (FBS) and they've won over Coastal Carolina and Liberty. EWU lost to NDSU, but beat their FBS opponent (WSU) along with UNI and NAU.

Question is: How many pollsters actually go beyond the overall records and look at the quality of the schedule?
 
IdaGriz01 said:
get'em_griz said:
Hmmm... at this point, I wonder if Jacksonville State and EWU should be ranked ahead of Sam Houston. Sam Houston, even though they're 3-0, looks to have had a very easy preseason schedule so far while EWU has had a much better resume.
Good point: SHSU has won against a D-II (OK Panhandle), Lamar (which has not won a game yet and was 5-6 last year) and Houston Baptist (2-2, but went 2-9 last year). J-State's only loss was to LSU (FBS) and they've won over Coastal Carolina and Liberty. EWU lost to NDSU, but beat their FBS opponent (WSU) along with UNI and NAU.

Question is: How many pollsters actually go beyond the overall records and look at the quality of the schedule?
Good points. So far the athlon power poll has been a little better poll. Had CP at 13 last week and ewu at 2. Ewu is still 2 this week CP at 10 MT falls to 11 with Uni at 12
 
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