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STATS FCS Poll, Nov 13 ( Griz #03)

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
No movement to speak of at the very top, other than Idaho. The Vandals dropped about what I expected. I was glad to see the pollsters moved NC Central out of the top-10 … and down even a bit more than I guessed. I’m mildly surprised that Youngstown State hung on (barely) in the top-25. They also dropped Northern Iowa to exactly where I expected (not bad!).

Rank, Team (Record), Points, {First-place votes} [Previous Rank]
1. South Dakota State (10-0), 1,400 points {56} [1]
2. Furman (9-1), 1,309 [2]
3. Montana (9-1), 1,301 [3]
4. Montana State (8-2), 1,233 [5]
5. South Dakota (8-2), 1,183 [6]
6. Idaho (7-3), 1,042 [4]
7. Delaware (8-2), 1,029 [8]
8. Sacramento State (7-3), 957 [9]
9. North Dakota State (7-3), 874 [12]
10. Villanova (8-2), 792 [13 (tie)]
11. Florida A&M (9-1), 750 [13 (tie)]
12. UAlbany (8-3), 690 [18]
13. North Dakota (6-4), 685 [10]
14. Western Carolina (7-3), 601 [17]
15. Austin Peay (8-2), 556 [20]
16. Southern Illinois (6-4), 507 [11]
17. North Carolina Central (8-2), 489 [7]
18. Chattanooga (7-3), 481 [19]
19. UT Martin (8-2), 475 [21]
20. UIW (7-2), 464 [16]
21. Mercer (8-3), 311 [23]
22. Northern Iowa (6-4), 285 [15]
23. Harvard (8-1), 168 [24]
24. Lafayette (8-2), 142 [25]
25. Youngstown State (6-4), 126 [22]

Others Receiving Votes: Central Arkansas (7-3), 119; Tarleton (8-3) 80; Richmond (7-3) 77; Nicholls (5-4) 25; Holy Cross (6-4) 21; Gardner-Webb (6-4) 8; UC Davis (6-4) 5; Drake (7-3) 2.

Link to Haley’s article:

https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/11/c...ecting-across-stats-perform-fcs-top-25-poll/
 
Not that it will be the case but if the committee used this ranking for seeding the Big Sky would have four seeded teams...
 
GrizTexas said:
Not that it will be the case but if the committee used this ranking for seeding the Big Sky would have four seeded teams...
Click to expand...

My guess is that with an NDSU win over UNI, the bizon jump Sac and both the MVFC and Big Sigh get 3 each.
Along with Furman and the winner of Nova/Delaware
 
Some observations:
There sits North Dakota at #13 despite their marginal record (i.e., barely above .500). But then Southern Illinois also looks out of place … another nod to the Missouri Valley, I guess. Northern Iowa looks about right, I think. On the other hand, UC Davis (also 6-4) is nowhere near making it into the top-25, although they did get a few votes.

The other bit of an anomaly was what the pollsters did to Incarnate Word, who were Idle. Somehow, without losing a game, they dropped four spots. Of course, Nicholls (5-4) has the tie-breaker over Inc Word for the Southland auto-bid, but if UIW wins next weekend, they would end at 8-2, 7-1 if you count only FCS games (they beat a D-II and lost to an FBS). That might give them a decent chance at an at-large bid.
 
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-coaches-poll

Coaches poll has Griz at #3 again as well. A win this week regardless of what the polls show IMO the Griz or the Cats will be the #2 seed, but I expect with a win the Griz be ranked #2 in both with the #2 seed. Question is what would happen if the Griz lose to the Cats? I don't see them falling very far honestly. My guess #5 seed and ranked between 5th-6th in the polls.

How do others view it?
 
Brother Bear said:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-coaches-poll

Coaches poll has Griz at #3 again as well. A win this week regardless of what the polls show IMO the Griz or the Cats will be the #2 seed, but I expect with a win the Griz be ranked #2 in both with the #2 seed. Question is what would happen if the Griz lose to the Cats? I don't see them falling very far honestly. My guess #5 seed and ranked between 5th-6th in the polls.

How do others view it?
Click to expand...

Hoping for 6/7 Would like to have UM come over to BZN for a good ole fashion playoff game!

I think 6 makes sense:

SDSU
MSU
FURMAN
USD
UD
UM

Could see the argument ahead of UD. But that NAU loss is glaring, and the committee is painfully tough on late season losses imo.
 
CatsRback said:
Brother Bear said:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-coaches-poll

Coaches poll has Griz at #3 again as well. A win this week regardless of what the polls show IMO the Griz or the Cats will be the #2 seed, but I expect with a win the Griz be ranked #2 in both with the #2 seed. Question is what would happen if the Griz lose to the Cats? I don't see them falling very far honestly. My guess #5 seed and ranked between 5th-6th in the polls.

How do others view it?
Click to expand...

Hoping for 6/7 Would like to have UM come over to BZN for a good ole fashion playoff game!

I think 6 makes sense:

SDSU
MSU
FURMAN
USD
UD
UM

Could see the argument ahead of UD. But that NAU loss is glaring, and the committee is painfully tough on late season losses imo.
Click to expand...

Correction, the committee is hard on bad late season losses.

As far as the NAU loss, I don’t think that will be much of a thought with a 10-1 or 9-2 record. And if you want to look at resumes, I think you guys need this game more than we do. You have one quality win so far this year. I know you’d love to see us in Bozeman or vice versa, but I doubt they put us on the same side of the bracket given our typical home attendance.
 
CatsRback said:
Brother Bear said:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-coaches-poll

Coaches poll has Griz at #3 again as well. A win this week regardless of what the polls show IMO the Griz or the Cats will be the #2 seed, but I expect with a win the Griz be ranked #2 in both with the #2 seed. Question is what would happen if the Griz lose to the Cats? I don't see them falling very far honestly. My guess #5 seed and ranked between 5th-6th in the polls.

How do others view it?
Click to expand...

Hoping for 6/7 Would like to have UM come over to BZN for a good ole fashion playoff game!

I think 6 makes sense:

SDSU
MSU
FURMAN
USD
UD
UM

Could see the argument ahead of UD. But that NAU loss is glaring, and the committee is painfully tough on late season losses imo.
Click to expand...

Yep. Hopefully you still end up with a seed.
 
AZGrizFan said:
CatsRback said:
Hoping for 6/7 Would like to have UM come over to BZN for a good ole fashion playoff game!

I think 6 makes sense:

SDSU
MSU
FURMAN
USD
UD
UM

Could see the argument ahead of UD. But that NAU loss is glaring, and the committee is painfully tough on late season losses imo.
Click to expand...
Yep. Hopefully you still end up with a seed.
Click to expand...
True about late-season losses ... in most cases, but probably not this one.

The norm after a loss to a highly ranked team is almost always 2-4 spots, unless the game is a total blowout. (Look how UND did after their close loss to USD, even though it left them with a 6-4 record.) Thus, when the kitties lose (I know, don't count the hens), my guess – which I'm pretty good at, you may recall – is that they will drop no more than 3-4 spots, or even less. That would still have them in the top-10, and very much in the conversation for a seed.

My personal thought: Winner gets a #2, loser still gets a seed of some sort.
 
I wonder how much of the Griz being number 3 is the preseason expectations for the Cats to win the conference. It's hard for people to change their opinions when they have made them public.
 
Furman doesn't deserve #2. The SoCon is a shadow of it's former self. So big deal, they played South Carolina (a bad Scouth Carolina) and lost, they beat Western Carolina who was managed to break the top ten playing great teams like The Citidel, VMI, Campbell, etc. The Paladins managed to beat Chattanooga who wasn't a top ten team. The Paladins SOS is 88. They are sitting at #2 because, I don't know why. The power teams are gone and the SoCon has been irrelevant since they left.

Montana has a SOS that is 44. The NAU loss should have never happened, but it did, and it was probably a good thing too because the men in maroon have been on a mission since that loss, which was totally unacceptable. The Griz have beaten #6 Sac State, #3 Idaho, UC Davis (Undeservedly? ranked 16 at the start of the season, and will be playing #4 State.

Regardless of who wins, Montana or state should pull the #2 seed because Furman will get crushed if they ever meet either team in the playoffs.
 
I don't think it's worth getting bent out of shape over the rankings until after the game on Saturday.
 
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