Standings & the last 3 weeks

[BWahlberg]

Looking at the men's standings:

PSU - 9-2
WSU - 7-4
NAU - 7-5
MSU - 6-5
UM - 6-5
ISU - 6-5
EWU - 5-8
UNC - 4-8
CSUS - 2-10

It would appears that PSU is very close to locking up the tourney. They've won 7 straight, but do have 4 road games (3 conference games) left.

Weber's got 5 games left, 3 of which are on the road and all but the last game against Sac are against tough teams, they could sink a bit.

NAU has been in a funk, losing 4 of their last 5. After they play UM on Saturday the remaining schedule is at home.

The cats have 5 games left as well, 3 at home, and still play UNC and CSUS. They have a good chance to finish strong.

UM will face a slumping NAU before two tough road games, then home for two more, the last one against PSU

ISU has 3 road games still, and the two at home are againt MSU and then UM. Could be a tough finish for them, they've lost 3 out of the last 4 games.

EWU's only got 3 games left, two on the road, they're on the ropes.

UNC has a rough final 4 games, PSU, EWU, UM, MSU. I think they're done for

CSUS isn't techincally elminated... but they might as well be.

--------

Looking at the teams playing the best ball in the coference right now I'd say its:

1. PSU
2. UM
3. MSU
4. Weber
5. NAU / EWU

--------

There's a lot at stake for everybody still, I don't see PSU slipping up so bad they don't host, but looking at it from Montana's side, if they can finish strong they stand a great chance of hosting the 1st round game, and if WSU & NAU really fall apart, maybe the Griz still could grab a 1st round bye.

 

[grizonbob]

Thanks for the thorough rundown. I didn't realize that the Griz have that good a shot at 2nd seed. With the way they are playing in the second half the season, I'm sure the other teams are getting nervous about facing them.

Nice to see them developing a little bench depth, too. Vanderjagt was a big surprise. Hope last night's game wasn't a fluke.

 

[BARN BALL]

Lets see here. Montana is 6-5 and plays Weber and ISU on the road and lost to both recently at home. Montana has wins over SAC state twice, Eastern Wa. twice, and Northern Colorado once.

I would say we need to see one more to see which team shows up the one that lead NAU at the half on the road by 11 and shot the ball well recently or....????.

At this point getting in the big sky tournament is realistic. I will have to sit thru the NAU game as I did the Weber and ISU games before I would want to make any predictions.

I do not think a Bye is a good idea anyway especially when it appears the PSU is a likely host. I would like to host as a third or fourth seed as it allows for a short trip to observe.

 

[BWahlberg]

Lets see here. Montana is 6-5 and plays Weber and ISU on the road and lost to both recently at home. Montana has wins over SAC state twice, Eastern Wa. twice, and Northern Colorado once.

Very true, however:

- Montana and PSU are the only two Big Sky teams that are consistantley winning basketball games in the last 2-3 weeks.

- Montana's two road opponents beat Montana at home by a combined margin of 3 points (ISU by 2, Weber by 1). That was at a time when I think most of us could agree the Griz were not playing nearly as well as they are now.

Montana's better play has them back in it. They need to take care of business at home for sure, beating NAU would probably most likely garuntee them a bid to the tourney (I think?). I like the way they're playing right now...

 

[GrizBBIsKing]

Griz have 3 game lead over EWU (in the loss column). Best EWU can do is .500. Best Northern Colorado can do is .500. Griz win 3 games, they finish above .500.


If EWU win out, and Griz win two (including one win against Northern Colorado), that would leave EWU and Griz tied. Griz swept EWU, so earns the tie breaker over EWU on the first tie break criteria of head to head results. Griz earn it.

But, if EWU, Northern Colorado, and Griz are tied. Northern Colorado may have the advantage. Three of Northern Colorado's wins have been against teams Griz lost to. So, if Griz win only two of the remaining and tie with Northern Colorado, Northern Colorado would likely place higher than Griz based on their wins over ISU, WSU, and NAU.

Griz win three and they are in. That is, protect home court and they are in the tournament.

Protect home court, I figure Griz will be a 4th or 5th seed.

Win one on the road on top of all home games, I figure 3rd or 4th seed.

Win out, I figure 2nd seed.

I predict Griz will finish 4th seed.

I prefer 3rd or 4th seed, because it allows you to play at home in front of your home fans, and gives you additional chance to gain momentum. In addition, your not sitting around getting rusty like the 1st and 2nd seed teams. Even the 5th and 6th seed teams have an advantage in that it allows a team to gain momentum even though there is so much traveling.