I went back and watched film from every game I could find from SELA. I have went back and watched a lot of the film from this years UM team. Here are my thoughts:
SELA Offense: This team is dynamic, they have some clear tendencies that drive their game and they have a few things that really hinder their results as well. SELA feasts on zone D. All year long their film shows that if you sit and play zone with basic pressure schemes...they will eat you alive. They have smart receivers that will sit in gaps and they often release their tight end on a seam to stretch the back end of the secondary and run an in route underneath. MANY MANY of their scores came from this type of play. They also run a TON of rub routes and pick plays. They like to get a linebacker crossing the opposite direction and then run a clear pick by their slot WR. When SELA gets in the redzone they like to run wildcat. they run wildcat with their RB who is shifty as all get out and will make people miss. They also run their backup QB in short yardage situation as his 6ft 7 stature is tough to deal with. He is patient and he likes to let the play develop and barrel through the line like wrecking ball once the line is established. Their Offensive Key will be to adapt to the Griz scheme. I will talk about the scheme below but the griz are going to give odd looks and bring LB and Saftey pressure from different spots. In film this has caused issues for their QB and he has made some quick rushed throws that were just plain ugly. If he knows what he sees...he will eat you alive. Can they adapt and pick up the griz pressure scheme? can they find the hole in a griz D that wont play as much zone I assume. Lastly avoid mistakes for SELA. They put the ball on the ground A TON!!! 21 some odd times this year. They often lose fundamental sight and while they make HUGE plays...they also shoot themselves in the foot. can they avoid the major turnovers and the meltdown that seems to ensue when they do?
Griz D: The Griz have had up and down games on the D side of the ball. The griz have been struggling with multiple offense schemes. We have an issue with over pursuing at times in the center of the field. This can NOT happen this next game. We most likely will play a buffer and give up the short plays...just get used to it. We want this team to nickel and dime down the field. Make them be constant and do not give up huge plays. Griz D will need to show pressure and need to try and trick this QB. Nova had a similar 3 down front that we use...NOVA sat in a 3-4 zone almost ALL DAY LONG. They kept getting burned and they just did not ever adjust. when they brought pressure it was straight..sure they got there a few times..but most the time they got eaten alive. Don't show your hand. Let Lewis and Olson find the right gap...let them roam and do their thing! Force the turnover but do it by good tackling and not poking at the ball. If we poke at the ball...they might just burn and turn by us. When they fumble, it appears that it happens on solid firm hits. come down, form tackle and do your thing. let them drop the ball and get on it!
Griz O: This is a tough one because we have no idea what to expect. Is Dalton healthy? Is Akem back? we have no idea. Our offense goes...as our QB does. This team has so much talent and can give the ball to anyone and they can make plays. That being said. Flat routes and Double moves are going to be our target this game. SELA loves to bring pressure...lots of it....like 7 guy pressure! running dish routes, running swing routes, JLM quick screens....those are the counter. We will need to get the ball out quick. The other things that has burned SELA this year has be double moves. Their corners and secondary are not great but they are aggressive...they often will put a foot in the ground and go try and make a play. In losses they have given up double move after double move. IF and its a huge IF....we have Akem by some grace of god...that 8 yard curl he runs could be the perfect setup move. We can run it with other but lets be honest AKEM is a man out there and owns that route! Overall take aways: Catch the ball...we can NOT drop the ball like we did with SAC and MSU. our OL needs to give Sneed just enough time and we need to get the ball out to the edge quick. If we can get them frustrated on those routes...we can pop them over the top and get some quick big plays. If we can get a run game going early...great lets do it. I don't see it happening. Their DL is good, and we need to think of the quick routes as an extension to the run game. Hell even throw some JLM sweeps in there to really extend their D side to side.
SELA D: The front 4 is good...real good. Their DEs are talented and big. They will get to Sneed...I promise. They have real trouble in the back end. They are over aggressive, they don't communicate well in zone and they will have their work cut out trying to chase down the wide outs. They like to play back on the corners and then try and jump routes. when SELA brings pressure...they bring 6-7 guys! They play good run D and don't really get beat by a normal back. They do have issues with QB contain and a healthy Sneed would be huge to run our RPO. SELA has had some issues containing the RPO. They often let the QB gap the backside of the RPO and Sneed used that a TON in the front half of the year but without his good ankle...we might not be able to utilize this. SELA key on D? bring pressure and tackle well. thats it. Sneed is banged up...make him throw quick! when you do..tackle JLM. Can they man up and tackle WRs and RBs with one or two guys in pursuit?
Special Teams: I just wanted to lump all these ST groups together. The Griz and the SELA teams have good return guys. The Griz coverage team tends to be better than the SELA coverage from the moments I have seen. Flowers could have huge game this week as SELA does not appear to have a kicker that historically gets the ball in or around the endzone. BH will key up some good looks for this. My guess is that SELA will pooch kick all Saturday. Kicker wise??? SELA has a kicker who was STOKED to kick a 37 yarder and make it. Their coach seemed so happy for their kicker to make a FG AND all his XP kicks in a game. Don't expect much from SELA kicking as they will go for it on 4th most the time while in FG range...... WIlson for the Griz needs to have a better punt game! He has been great all year until the last few games. Make SELA travel the WHOLE field if we have to give up the ball. Don't give them a short field!
Final Thoughts: As scary as the SELA offense is....for some reason I am not too worried about the deep pass game. They can make big plays but most of them are not 1-1 streak route type of plays. They are rubs and post...that actually is a better situation for the griz. My bigger fear is the run game.. the RPO is tough with a team of this speed caliber. we need to own the edge and we need to do it with out DE's and not linebackers. We need to let linebackers find their way home and not have to be worried about stretching the play out. I think this Griz team will give up points without a doubt. But I am thinking in the 21-28 point range this weekend. I think the colder temps and atmosphere will cause just enough issue to the Lions that they screw up 2-3 drives where they could have gotten scores. To follow that up...I dont see us not getting to 21-28 points against this Lion D. They just don't have the secondary to lock down Toure, JLM, Roberts and maybe Akem. IF Sneed is 90% or better...i say we score in the 30s pretty easily here and a 100% Sneed in the 40s. I think there is a small amount of ... were just happy to be here from SELA... and there is also a amount that SELA will not be prepared for a Missoula playoff game.
Prediction: 38-28 Griz. I think this game is pretty close until the late 3rd to 4th when the Griz strength and tough mentality come to play. hour 3-4 kick in of being outside for SELA. I just can foreshadow a little bit of collapse from the Lions here late.
