This year I am at a disadvantage not to have seen any of the players in the offseason. Most years I get a few looks at most the team in the offseason. Based on what I have read, what I have been told, and my observations from last year, here is my shot in the dark.
Fortunately 1 of my concerns was the health of AJ and Selvig. As of last week, word on both was they are both healthy to start the season. So that is a big relief. Slightly discouraging to hear was Stauds played injured the 2nd of last year, which explains his struggles. Somehow that injury was kept hush all last season. He is healed now too.
Just like last year, my biggest concern/question mark coming into this season is inside scoring. Despite the lack of consistent inside scoring last year, this team still managed a solid 11-5 conference record. Common sense is we can only be better this year inside, I really do not see how it could be worse. Ideally both Selvig and Qvale will be much improved offensively this year.
Qvale had a few good games down the stretch last year. His problem has not been his moves, but his finishing touch on sound moves. At the very least Qvale is capable of being 10 pts, 8 reb, 2.0 blocks per game. If we get anything close to those numbers from him, this fan will be pleased.
Selvig is a 3, with 5 size, and a potential matchup problem for defenses. Last year his injury effected the team in a few ways, beyond his personal stats. We lost our best passing big man and our most versatile defender. Without him, our offense did not run as smoothly and our defense lost our lengthiest defender, another paint presence, and nobody to comfortably spell Qvale when he need a breather. Offensively, I really do hope to see Selvig more in high post, and spell Qvale in the low post. I pray we do not see another talented big not be utilized inside. This team will be better with Selvig being a paint player. We have no need for him to be a top 3 point threat like Hasquet was used. I want to see Selvig being used to set up teammates and take advantage of mismatches. The best sign for the GRIZ will be if we see him within 15 feet of the basket more often than not, and taking other bigs to the hole or posting up smaller defenders. I will be equally discouraged if we see him taking most his shots from 3. We do not have enough rebounding to take him away from the paint. Defensively, is where we need Selvig the most, when Selvig and/or Qvale are patrolling the paint, teams struggle to score against us. With neither in there, we struggle to stop people. I will say it now "I feel the maturation of Derek Selvig is the biggest key for the GRIZ this year."
Ward is a player I really look forward to being part of the rotation this year. It sounds as if this kid is the one player we can rely on for points in the paint on a consistent basis with a good mid range game to keep defenders honest. If that is the case, I will not be quite as hard on the development of Derek Selvig. I do not mind seeing a smaller post player be a scorer if he is effective. It would be nice to have Ward be our new Strait, then Selvig could me more effective overall. I feel Hasquet was less effective as a SR due to the loss of Strait, that allowed teams to focus on Hasquet more. I hope Ward will also be a capable rebounder and scorer, maybe close to slightly better than Sharp, that would be a very good expectation for Ward this year.
Hutchison appears to be the one post player we do not know what a lot about. Ideally, Selvig, Qvale, and Ward play well to lessen the pressure on Hutchison. I like that he is a mobile 6'9", which may allow us to use him to defend the paint and perimeter, similar to Selvig, when Qvale is in the paint. If he redshirts, then it will be a very good sign for the GRIZ bigs. However, due to lack of depth this year, question marks, and injury concerns, I just do not see Hutchison redshirting this year. I really do think Tinkle should find this kid a lot of minutes in the exhibition games and scrimmage, just to see where he is at to help determine a redshirt year or not?
As a whole I love our bigs for defense, rebounding (if they secure the ball instead of tipping it!), and versatility. In fact, I am hardpressed to think of a better defensive paint combo than Selvig and Qvale. I have 100% faith in our paint defense. I see no reason why paint defense cannot be the best part of this year's GRIZ!
Small Forward is finally deep, athletic,and versatile.
McGillis is athletic, good rebounder, and good defender. Offensively, I expected much more from him last year, and it just did not happen very often. Skill wise I still think Jack can be a top notch SF and all conference type. However, Jack needs to let the game come to him. He pressed way too often last year. I really do not have an answer as to how to get him from pressing. I just hope he overcomes that hurdle this year. If he does, Jack may prove to have a great SR year. I still think if we struggle inside to score points, we should post Jack up. He is a very good post player when called upon.
Young brings us more size, scoring, and athleticism than Staudacher or Taylor here. As mentioned before, Young is accustomed to playing guard than SF. I feel we will see him at both positions depending on opponents, matchups, and foul trouble. I really do hope he brings us another consistent perimeter threat, ball handling, and hard work. From what I hear, this kid has a contagiously good attitude, very similar to AJ. I pray that is the case. Rather it be from the 2 or 3 spot, I expect Young to be a major contributor this year from the get go. I really would not be surprised to see him be our 2nd or 3rd leading scorer and another defensive stopper too.
Staudacher is a true SG, but can give us minutes at SF if we want to lessen the defensive burden on him and utilize him as a true 3 point assassin. He played injured a good majority of last year. I expect him to be much more consistent this year, and will not be surprised to see him get a few 20 point nights this year, rather it be starting or off the bench. I think he will benefit most from a new supporting cast this year. We have more perimeter defense this year to lessen his defensive efforts. We have more 3 point threats this year (last year he was our only consistent threat from 3), and most importantly in Selvig, AJ, Cherry, Taylor, and Stockton we will always have ball distributors to find him(another reason to use Selvig in the post).
Michael Taylor, along with Selvig are our 2 most versatile players that can play 3 positions capably if called upon. This year I would love to see Taylor get the 2nd or 3rd most 3 point shots. I really love his 3 point shot,and at times last year wished he would have been more selfish when called on. Taylor really does not have a defined position, but can play 1, 2, or 3. Like Staudacher, I see him also being able to benefit with our personnel this year. I really am hoping if and when Staudacher struggles from 3, Tinkle does not hesitate to try freeing up Taylor. I also like the rebounding element from the guard spot, and his ball distribution skills. As a whole, I like everything Taylor brings to the table. He does not hurt a team at any position, and always brings something positive to the team.
Anthony Johnson was a Godsend last year, not only statistically, but we finally got the true leader we had been lacking on the floor since the departure of Criswell and Matthews. A healthy AJ wills this team to competing every game for 40 minutes every night. This guy has a Jordan quality to him. He is also not afraid to take a game over when rest of the team is struggling. This guy does it all. When asked he can put up 30 pts, be the defensive stopper, and dishout 10 assists. Last year he was not afraid to speak out and lead. This being his SR year, with a possible NBA shot on the line, I would not want to be the player to let this team down. I expect a very intense AJ this year! He alone erases all my doubts I have of this team. He lead by example last year, and from what I hear has lead by example in the offseason as well. He has forced his will on the likes of Selvig and Qvale. AJ will be the conference MVP this year. I also look forward to him preparing to hand the torch to Will Cherry for the next 3 years.
Will Cherry is the final piece to the puzzle that will finally allow Tinkle to press and run more. Cherry is a willing ball distributor, fearless ballhandler, penetrator, and a shutdown defender. There will be times when he struggles, like any Freshman. I do not expect him to put up many big point games. I do expect him to be a defensive nightmare and penetrator that will make scoring easier for the whole team. I do not expect him to shoot a high percentage this year, but he will develop that in time. He will not care if he is playing PG or SG, but wants to be asked and expected to have the pressure of leading a team. I think Tinkle will develop him slowly and gradually increase his minutes as he learns how to be 1A PG. I personally cannot wait to see a pressure lineup of Cherry, AJ, Young, McGillis, and either Selvig/Qvale/Hutchison. I expect to see Cherry be one of the biggest reasons why we will get more points from defense this year. I feel he will get his hands on a lot of balls, and then a few rim rocking fastbreak dunks this year to him and from him.
Stockton is a hard player to put a finger on for me. I like what he brings to the table in leadership, toughness, and running an offense. If we press more it will be a good sign that Tinkle has faith in our depth at every position. It will be hard to find time for him this year, but he is too good of a player to not see action. He is also another reason why I feel we see the likes of Michael Taylor, Staudacher, and Young at SF, and Selvig no time at SF. We finally have the bodies at both guard positions. I see Stockton's role as being the PG to calm things down when we are struggling, and to add ball distribution when called upon.
Vassy Banny will be hard pressed to see time this year unless he is willing to be defensive stopper, and could be a good minute filler when we are pressing a lot.
Overall, I like this year's roster in all positions. I love our defensive potential and versatility. Worse case the GRIZ are a .500 confernce team. I expect this team to struggle some with our out of conference record. I feel Tinkle should commit to building all our inside players and Cherry before conference play. We cannot afford to struggle inside offensively like last year. With that said, best Case we get inside paint offense and challenge Weber State for the title. With limited injuries I see a 11-5 or 12-4 team this year. So I expect patience to be the key this year through December for this team to develop properly. Even if it does not develop properly, AJ alone assure us a .500 conference record.
We shall see. I cannot wait.
