Pre-season is just that: "Pre..."

[grizzlyjournal]

Good coaches use pre-season games to experiment: with players, with lineups, with offensive and defensive schemes. Also with games against tough teams. No, or very few pushovers. Not too many road games vs. top-ranked teams either. But games that show the coach which players are ready to lead the team into conference play.

This year, the Weber State Wildcats -- to me -- are that classic textbook team. With a full roster of very talented and physically versatile players, the Wildcats looked completely out of sorts at times. Hapless. Disoriented. Utah Tech "embarrassed" them on their home court. A lousy record, and a metrics rating hovering around 300. No more. Longtime Wildcat assistant coach, now head coach Eric Duft, has his Wildcats on track. They looked formidable tonight.

Coach Duft stuck with his game plan. And his players. And this week things took a 180 degree turn. Saturday the Wildcats demolished Cal Poly on its own floor. Tonight, after trailing by 18 in the first half, the Wildcats stuck with their aggressive D and its classic Wildcat passing game, and edged out a 75-73 win at Utah State. It was the first loss of the season for the Aggies, which were ranked 41 at Kenpom going into tonight's game. So, count the Wildcats ready to compete in the Big Sky. The Wildcats aren't the only Big Sky team surging of late. Along with the Griz, Eastern Washington (which soundly beat Cal Davis and Robbie Beasley Sunday), UNC, Portland State and SAC State (thnks, citay) all look like they're going to be tough to beat.

Suddenly, things are looking like the Big Sky this year might be a donnybrook.

 

[citygriz]

I think you can add Sac State to your list. They lost at Santa Clara by seven but have since beat Denver, Long Beach State and Fresno State, the latter in Fresno.

 

[Jackieb125]

Good coaches use pre-season games to experiment: with players, with lineups, with offensive and defensive schemes. Also with games against tough teams. No, or very few pushovers. Not too many road games vs. top-ranked teams either. But games that show the coach which players are ready to lead the team into conference play.

This year, the Weber State Wildcats -- to me -- are that classic textbook team. With a full roster of very talented and physically versatile players, the Wildcats looked completely out of sorts at times. Hapless. Disoriented. Utah Tech "embarrassed" them on their home court. A lousy record, and a metrics rating hovering around 300. No more. Longtime Wildcat assistant coach, now head coach Eric Duft, has his Wildcats on track. They looked formidable tonight.

Coach Duft stuck with his game plan. And his players. And this week things took a 180 degree turn. Saturday the Wildcats demolished Cal Poly on its own floor. Tonight, after trailing by 18 in the first half, the Wildcats stuck with their aggressive D and its classic Wildcat passing game, and edged out a 75-73 win at Utah State. It was the first loss of the season for the Aggies, which were ranked 41 at Kenpom going into tonight's game. So, count the Wildcats ready to compete in the Big Sky. The Wildcats aren't the only Big Sky team surging of late. Along with the Griz, Eastern Washington (which soundly beat Cal Davis and Robbie Beasley Sunday), UNC, Portland State and SAC State (thnks, citay) all look like they're going to be tough to beat.

Suddenly, things are looking like the Big Sky this year might be a donnybrook.

Not sure .eastern soundly beat Robby Beasley, since he only played 25 mins. Your 1st paragraph says it all

 

[UMFan12]

Not sold on EWU. 215 in KenPom and a very shaky resume. Lost to a South Dakota State team(196 kenpom) that lost by nearly 30 to the Griz and nearly 40 to Oral Roberts. Only edged out a terrible Cal team by 2. And best wins are semi-convincing Ws over NDSU and Cal-Davis, who sits currently at 185, lower than MSU, Long Beach St, UC Riverside(Kyle Owens team), SUU, Air Force, and the Griz.

 

[UMFan12]

UM, MSU and UNC is a pretty safe bet as the top 3, and Idaho is a dark horse contender that will make noise. EWU most likely fits somewhere from 5-7.

 

[GrizBall]

UM, MSU and UNC is a pretty safe bet as the top 3, and Idaho is a dark horse contender that will make noise. EWU most likely fits somewhere from 5-7.

I think it's MSU's conference to lose. Great coaching, depth and pieces that fit together.

I am not buying UNC. Arguably the best "Best 3" in the conference but little else. Bench minutes and defense rank close to last in the entire country. Even with their great offense, these aren't they types of numbers generally seen in contenders. But I do see your point. I think they are the Big Sky's ultimate "can beat anyone on a given night - or lose to anyone on a given night" team.

Also not buying Idaho. Even as a Darkhorse. Currently ranked #314 in the country with a defense that is ranked #353 in country and a bench that is #322 in minutes. They have also played the 350th easiest non-con schedule. Generally not the numbers of a team that will be competitive in conference. Sac or PSU would be my "Darkhorses."

I think EWU's floor (not ceiling) is 5th. Venters is coming around after a slow start. I don't think he will shoot 33% from 3 in conference play.

I believe MSU is in a tier by themselves and NAU, UI and ISU will bring up the rear

 

[IdaGriz01]

“Griz til I die” made a good point along these lines over in the “zags” thread … which I thought would go better here:

The conference as a whole was really lousy in November, but all of a sudden most of the teams have played very good ball in December. PSU has now beat OSU twice, and Air Force who we lost to. UNC has an upset road win over CSU and lost by a point to Air Force last night. Weber handed Utah State their first loss of the season Monday night. Eastern beat Cal, Griz and cats played good games against Gonzaga and Arizona. These teams seem to be finding their groove. Should be an exciting year!

I’ve had the same thought, based on other similar comments on eGriz and from skimming Big Sky results. But, being a numbers guy, I wondered if there was anything to back up that general “impression.” Turns out, we’re not just grabbing this notion out of thin air. Nor does it depend upon a few isolated results. I broke the season into two segments, one being the last four games for every Big Sky team. I only counted D-I wins. (Too many games with Northwest Indian. Why pick on them?)

Most BSC teams played seven OOC D-I games before that. The combined records were 18-51, for a 26.0% winning percentage. During the last four games, they’ve gone 19-21, for 47.5% … a dramatic improvement. And that’s not because everyone suddenly started playing total cupcakes … I see Fresno State, Utah State (as noted above), and other decent/good teams in there.

As a matter of fact, the difference is even greater if you take out the results for Idaho State, which is on a four game D-I losing streak. (Only win, doesn’t count: Montana-Western … and ISU didn’t exactly dominate.) Without them the early season was 17-45, for 27.4%. The last four games were 19-17, for 52.8%.

So, it’s not just an impression, the numbers support the fact that many teams in the Big Sky have shown considerable recent improvement.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I’m still looking at this possible “gelling” notion for several Big Sky teams. Found a few more noteworthy performances, starting with another for Portland State. A couple weekends ago, they played at Santa Clara (10-3), which has a Sagarin ranking of #30. The Vikings actually led with less than a minute to go, but lost 78-75.

Also two weeks ago, EWU played at Texas Tech (9-2), Sagarin #28 … not ranked in the AP but receiving votes. The Eagles came within a basket about 5 minutes to go before Tech eased ahead to win 77-70.

I also got curious about St. Thomas-Minnesota (11-4), whom the Griz beat handily earlier and MSU thumped on Dec 8. Was surprised to learn that the “Tommies” currently lead the Summit League. FYI, the Summit has usually ranked somewhat stronger than the Big Sky for past seasons. The Tommies actually led at Creighton (AP #9) midway through the second half. Then they had a long dry spell (sound familiar?) and ended up losing by 12. But that looks like a better team than we thought.