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PLAYOFFS?!?

DoubleNicks

DoubleNicks

Well-known member
It's that time of year again. Here's a quick compilation of teams with 6 wins already to start narrowing down a potential playoff field. Autobid or potential autobids listed in parenthesis after the conference name. Here's an interesting and helpful article from the NCAA on autobids: https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/...ayoffs-automatic-bid-tracker-and-aq-scenarios
With Howard beating North Carolina Central and possibly in the driver's seat for a Celebration Bowl berth, will the MEAC or SWAC have a playoff representative this year?


ASUN-WAC aka UAC (winner of Austin Peay-Central Arkansas)
Austin Peay (8-2)
Tarleton State (8-3) **ineligible due to transition**
Central Arkansas (7-3)

Big Sky (winner of Montana-MSU)
UM (9-1)
MSU (8-2)
Idaho (7-3)
Sac State (7-3)
UC Davis (6-4)

Big South-OVC (Gardner-Webb or UT Martin)
UT Martin (8-2)
Eastern Illinois (7-3)
Gardner-Webb (6-4)
Tennessee State (6-4)

CAA (Delaware/Villanova/UAlbany/Richmond)
Delaware (8-2)
Villanova (8-2)
UAlbany (8-3)
Richmond (7-3)
William & Mary (6-4)
Rhode Island (6-4)

MEAC (no autobid)
North Carolina Central (8-2) **due to Howard (5-5) possibly to Celebration Bowl**

MVFC (South Dakota State)
South Dakota State (10-0)
South Dakota (8-2)
North Dakota State (7-3)
Northern Iowa (6-4)
North Dakota (6-4)
Youngstown State (6-4)
Illinois State (6-4)
Southern Illinois (6-4)

NEC (winner of Duquesne-Merrimack(5-5))
Duquesne (6-4)

Patriot League (Lafayette or Holy Cross)
Lafayette (8-2)
Holy Cross (6-4)
Fordham (6-4)

Pioneer League (Drake or Davidson)
Drake (7-3)
Davidson (7-3)
Butler (7-3)
St. Thomas (7-3) **ineligible due to transition**

SoCon (Furman)
Furman (9-1)
Mercer (8-3)
Chattanooga (7-3)
Western Carolina (7-3)

Southland (Nicholls State(5-4))
Incarnate Word (7-2)

SWAC (no autobid)
Jackson State (7-3) **due to Florida A&M (9-1) to Celebration Bowl**
 
Incarnate had a game cancelled counting as a win, is that represented and does it count for contention? Thanks for doing this I’ve been waiting for it for weeks.
 
dupuyer griz said:
Incarnate had a game cancelled counting as a win, is that represented and does it count for contention? Thanks for doing this I’ve been waiting for it for weeks.
Click to expand...

I had just quickly used the records and standings from ESPN, so I had to double-check but it looks like the 7-2 does NOT count the forfeit win from Northwestern State.
 
DoubleNicks said:
dupuyer griz said:
Incarnate had a game cancelled counting as a win, is that represented and does it count for contention? Thanks for doing this I’ve been waiting for it for weeks.
Click to expand...
I had just quickly used the records and standings from ESPN, so I had to double-check but it looks like the 7-2 does NOT count the forfeit win from Northwestern State.
Click to expand...
I believe that's right. Near as I can tell, those cancelled/forfeited games only count to determine standings within the conference -- as dictated by the conference itself. Only the games that were actually played count in considering the overall record of whoever played them. Since NW State hadn't won a game when they called off their season, those games help those opponents, but zip after that.
 
41 hopefuls for 24 spots, by my count. Obviously, the NEC and Pioneer will likely only have their autobid and SWAC and MEAC might still get left out. But it does seem like there are a lot of 7-win and especially 8-win teams at this point this year. Maybe because of fewer FBS games this year?
 
BozAngelesGriz said:
I would love for Davis to win the Causeway Classic and make the post-season. And they might
Click to expand...

Yeah, I kind of would like to have as many BSC teams in as possible but then again, I kind of hope Sac State stays higher up to count for a quality win for the Griz.
 
DoubleNicks said:
41 hopefuls for 24 spots, by my count. Obviously, the NEC and Pioneer will likely only have their autobid and SWAC and MEAC might still get left out. But it does seem like there are a lot of 7-win and especially 8-win teams at this point this year. Maybe because of fewer FBS games this year?
Click to expand...

SWAC and MEAC don’t participate, do they? Don’t they have their “own” championship?
 
DoubleNicks said:
dupuyer griz said:
Incarnate had a game cancelled counting as a win, is that represented and does it count for contention? Thanks for doing this I’ve been waiting for it for weeks.
Click to expand...

I had just quickly used the records and standings from ESPN, so I had to double-check but it looks like the 7-2 does NOT count the forfeit win from Northwestern State.
Click to expand...
The forfeiture win only counts in conference standings; it does not count towards UIW's season win total.
 
AZGrizFan said:
DoubleNicks said:
41 hopefuls for 24 spots, by my count. Obviously, the NEC and Pioneer will likely only have their autobid and SWAC and MEAC might still get left out. But it does seem like there are a lot of 7-win and especially 8-win teams at this point this year. Maybe because of fewer FBS games this year?
Click to expand...

SWAC and MEAC don’t participate, do they? Don’t they have their “own” championship?
Click to expand...
The winners of both conferences play in the Celebration Bowl. However, anyone else in the two conferences is eligible for at-;arge berths into the FCS playoffs.
 
DoubleNicks said:
(UPDATED WITH FINAL RECORDS)
KEY:
AUTOBID
IN
OUT
BUBBLE


ASUN-WAC aka UAC (Austin Peay)
Austin Peay (9-2)
Central Arkansas (7-4)
Tarleton State (8-3) **ineligible due to transition**

Big Sky (Montana)
UM (10-1)
Idaho (8-3)
MSU (8-3)
UC Davis (7-4)
Sac State (7-4)

Big South-OVC (Gardner-Webb)
UT Martin (8-3)
Eastern Illinois (8-3)
Gardner-Webb (7-4)
Tennessee State (6-5)

CAA (Villanova)
Villanova (9-2)
UAlbany (9-3)
Delaware (8-3)
Richmond (8-3)
William & Mary (6-5)
Rhode Island (6-5)

MEAC (no autobid)
North Carolina Central (9-2) **due to Howard (5-5) possibly to Celebration Bowl**

MVFC (South Dakota State)
South Dakota State (11-0)
South Dakota (9-2)
North Dakota State (8-3)
North Dakota (7-4)
Youngstown State (7-4)
Southern Illinois (7-4)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Illinois State (6-5)


NEC (Duquesne)
Duquesne (7-4)

Patriot League (Lafayette)
Lafayette (9-2)
Holy Cross (7-4)
Fordham (6-5)

Pioneer League (Drake)
Drake (8-3)
Davidson (7-4)
Butler (7-4)
St. Thomas (8-3) **ineligible due to transition**

SoCon (Furman)
Furman (9-1)
Mercer (8-3)
Chattanooga (7-4)
Western Carolina (7-4)

Southland (Nicholls State(6-4))
Incarnate Word (8-2) *does NOT include forfeit win

SWAC (no autobid)
Jackson State (7-4) **due to Florida A&M (10-1) to Celebration Bowl**
Click to expand...

My best guess puts 19 teams IN leaving 5 spots for 12 BUBBLE teams. I'm guessing Central Arkansas, Chattanooga, and Western Carolina are eliminated due to ending with a loss as well as being from weaker conferences. Holy Cross won but also gets eliminated due to conference. That leaves 8 teams for the last 5 spots.

(by the way, Central Arkansas was only 6-3 vs. FCS)
  • UC Davis might be given some leniency for missing Larison during a couple losses; had loss to #16 FBS Oregon State and UM but also lost to EWU and NAU; only quality win was Sac State
  • Sac State has been highly ranked throughout the year and doesn't really have any bad losses (UM, Idaho, MSU, UC Davis) plus beat a P5 FBS but lost the H2H against UC Davis.
  • UT Martin had a loss to #1 FBS Georgia, owns H2H over Eastern Illinois, and was 1-0 vs. MVFC (Missouri State)
  • Eastern Illinois had a FBS loss and was 2-0 vs. MVFC (@Indiana State and Illinois State)
  • NC Central had a loss to #24 FBS UCLA but also a non-DI win; weak conference, best win @CAA Elon; poor loss to Howard
  • UND had losses to FBS, #1 SDSU, USD, and UNI; 2 wins over playoff teams (NDSU and Drake)
  • Youngstown State had losses to #5 FBS Ohio State, #1 SDSU, USD, UNI and owns the H2H over Southern Illinois
  • Southern Illinois has a FBS win and win over playoff autobid Austin Peay but lost H2H to Youngstown State; also lost to #1 SDSU, USD, NDSU


I'm thinking the final regular season Top Ten rankings will be something like:
1) SDSU (11-0)
2) Montana (10-1)
3) USD (9-2)
4) Idaho (8-3)
5) Villanova (9-2)
6) Furman (9-2)
7) NDSU (8-3)
8) Albany (9-3)
9) MSU (8-3)
10) Austin Peay (9-2)

So playoff seeding could be:
1 SDSU
8 Albany or MSU
4 Idaho
5 Villanova

2 Montana
7 NDSU
3 USD
6 Furman
 
Man, the 7 bubble teams (eliminate NC Central due to SOS) are so similar and interchangeable with their arguments. One more positive for Sac State that I didn't mention is having the win over playoff bound Nicholls. Plus, does recent playoff participation and conference championships help Sac State?
 
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