Playoff Picture - Week 12

[Montana Gym Rat]

Alright, one week to go!

Clinched AQ
MVFC - North Dakota State: GPI 1, SRS 1
OVC - Eastern Illinois: GPI 2, SRS 2
Big Sky - Eastern Washington: GPI 3, SRS 4
Southland - SE Louisiana: GPI 4, SRS 3
CAA - Maine: GPI 5, SRS 9
NEC - Sacred Heart: GPI 46, SRS 55


Other AQs
Bethune Cookman (GPI 19, SRS 22): Need to beat FAMU to take the MEAC. South Carolina State still alive with a BC loss though.

SOCON: Up for grabs. It will be Samford, Chattanooga, or Furman. Let's go with Samford (GPI 34, SRS 27) since they just beat Chattanooga.

Patriot: Goes to winner of the Lehigh/Lafayatte game. Game is at Lehigh (GPI 38, SRS 57) so I lean toward them. Although part of me wants to see Lafayette win and have a team with a losing record in the playoffs.

Big South: Charleston Southern (GPI 40, SRS 63) controls their destiny for the AQ if they can beat Liberty this weekend. Liberty has played Kent State, Richmond, ODU, and Coastal Carolina very tight in their 4 losses. Playoff bubble teams should be rooting for Liberty to knock CSU out of the playoff hunt, and make the Big South a one-bid conference.

Patriot: Butler (GPI 67, SRS 73) currently holds the tie-breaker over Marist. However, the GPI CPUs and SRS aren't final - so we'll have to wait until Sunday to know for certain.



LOCKS
Towson: GPI 6, SRS 5
McNeese State: GPI 7, SRS 8
Montana: GPI 8, SRS 13
Sam Houston State: GPI 9, SRS 17
Youngstown State: GPI 10, SRS 16
Coastal Carolina: GPI 11, SRS 10



On the Right Side of the Bubble (17 spots down, 7 to go)
South Dakota State: GPI 12, SRS 15 Tough game to close at YSU, but their GPI and SRS may go up even if they lose. Tough to see SDSU out of the field at this point.

William & Mary: GPI 13, SRS 12 Tough loss against a strong Towson team, but played them close. Close with Richmond who is on a 3 game winning streak, but I think W&M wins to lock up an at-large. Lose and they may still get in, but would be nervous come selection time.

Northern Arizona: GPI 14, SRS 32 If we went solely by SRS, NAU wouldn't get in this year. However, if they can win at SUU, they'll be in. I'd say the winner of NAU/SUU is in, and the loser is out.

Fordham: GPI 15, SRS 30 The loss to Lafayette knocks them down a peg, but they still are in the playoff field with a win at Colgate this weekend. If they lose, it could be enough to knock them out of an at-large.

Northern Iowa: GPI 17, SRS 7 They have fought back after 5 straight losses and finally get what should be an easily winnable matchup against WIU. If they take care of business, they'll probably get in.



Barely In (Final 2 Spots)
Tennessee State: GPI 22, SRS 23 They are all finished up at 9-3, and are smack dab on the bubble. They've got a win against Jacksonville State, but outside of that, nothing really on their resume. UT-Martin (EIU), New Hampshire (Maine), and Montana State (UM) could grab big wins this weekend and knock them out.

Jacksonville State: GPI 23, SRS 18 In a similar situation as TSU. They've got what should be a win this weekend against SEMO, and they'll be at 9-3 with a GPI/SRS right on the bubble. Would the committee go with a 6-5 Villanova (GPI 18, SRS 6) or 7-5 Southern Illinois (GPI 20, SRS 20) instead of these two OVC teams? We may find out what matters more to the comittee between W-L record, GPI, or SRS.



Win and In
Tennessee-Martin: GPI 25, SRS 29 Despite losing to both their OVC brethren listed above (TSU/JSU), UT Martin could leapfrog them in GPI and SRS if they can pull out the upset against EIU this weekend. That's a statement win that would probably put them into the field. (I don't see it happening though.)

New Hampshire: GPI 28, SRS 21 Still clinging to playoff hopes, UNH would need to take down Maine this weekend. That would be a big enough win to catapult them up into solid GPI/SRS rankings and nab an at-large spot.

Montana State: GPI 29, SRS 31 The slide continues. This team is still in the playoff race despite their recent poor performances in the last 3 games. A win over the rising Griz would be enough to right the ship and steal away an at-large bid.

Southern Utah: GPI 33, SRS 43 After the big win at MSU, SUU is now in the polls and getting some attention. If they can take down NAU, I see them stealing NAU's at-large spot in the playoff field.

Chattanooga: GPI 30, SRS 25 Technically with a win over Alabama, they would make the playoff field as an at-large. But seriously, they need Samford to lose.



Need Help
South Carolina State: GPI 32, SRS 28 If Bethune Cookman loses, SC State would be in with a win as the AQ from the MEAC. They still have an outside shot for an at-large, if enough teams lose this weekend.

Delaware: GPI 36, SRS 48 Similar to South Carolina State, they need quite a few teams to lose above them before they will get into the at-large discussion. Their schedule was pretty weak this year, and even a win over a Villanova team that the GPI/SRS love won't be enough without help.



So there are 13 at-large spots now with the new expansion, and I only see 20 teams who are in the discussion. We could call it 22 if the committee drops the 7 D-I win requirement they hinted at earlier this week and add Villanova and SIU. 24 teams is probably the biggest this playoff field can go before teams with losing records will start getting considered for at-large births.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

I realize that UNI played a difficult schedule, but I just can not see them get into the playoff field.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

Nau even with a loss has the same loss record as the cats(with a win) and they would have a better gpi and srs. It would be interesting to see if nau or msu got in.

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

I realize that UNI played a difficult schedule, but I just can not see them get into the playoff field.

If they win this weekend, they'll be 7-5 (with 7 D-I wins). Played in the toughest conference (by far) in FCS. They have wins over Iowa State, McNeese State, and Youngstown State.

Losses:
24-23 against NDSU (NDSU's tightest game of the season & in Fargo)
24-17 in OT vs Southern Illinois
38-31 in 2OT vs South Dakota
37-37 in OT @ South Dakota State
13-3 @ Illinois State

Not only did they play an incredibly tough schedule, but they have been highly competitive. Northern Iowa would be a scary playoff team. They could knock off anyone in the field.

What about their resume doesn't scream playoff team?

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

I realize that UNI played a difficult schedule, but I just can not see them get into the playoff field.

If they win this weekend, they'll be 7-5 (with 7 D-I wins). Played in the toughest conference (by far) in FCS. They have wins over Iowa State, McNeese State, and Youngstown State.

Losses:
24-23 against NDSU (NDSU's tightest game of the season & in Fargo)
24-17 in OT vs Southern Illinois
38-31 in 2OT vs South Dakota
37-37 in OT @ South Dakota State
13-3 @ Illinois State

Not only did they play an incredibly tough schedule, but they have been highly competitive. Northern Iowa would be a scary playoff team. They could knock off anyone in the field.

What about their resume doesn't scream playoff team?

Still struggle to see it. Could happen I guess, just think it is a long shot. I think the committee will reward someone with 9 or 10 wins, deserving or not, before they select a 7 win UNI.

 

[Potomac Griz]

Definitely interesting to look at the GPI and SRS of the teams in the Big Sky.

Could see (if they only take 3 from the Big Sky) both the Cats and NAU being left out if NAU loses to SUU and the Cats beat the Griz.

Can you imagine the shitstorm of posts if 2 of the teams who beat the Griz and were bubble teams were left out while the Griz were in? PapaG from bobcatnation would fly off the handle with conspiracy theories!

Amazing to see how far Delaware has fallen... At one point Delaware was 7-2 and looking good. Two home losses later (including one to a 5-6 Richmond) and they are hanging on for dear life needing help to get in the playoffs.

 

[OldtiredGRiz]

I think UNI has a legitimate shot at the playoffs, but what might work against them would be a SDSU loss at Youngstown State. That would put both UNI and SDSU at 7 - 5 and I think it unlikely that two 7 - 5 teams would come out of the same conference. SDSU, with the win over UNI, would seem like the more plausible choice. Then again, nothing is certain until the selection show on Sunday. Speaking of which, I know it's on ESPNU, but I'm not sure what time.

Edit -- just took a look and according to the NCAA website, the selection show is airing at 11:30 am Eastern Time on Sunday.

http://web1.ncaa.org/NCAATV/exec/query" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[EverettGriz]

Great post, MGR!! Thanks for breaking this down. Super read.


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