• Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your eGriz.com experience today!

Playoff Picture - November 4th

Montana Gym Rat

Well-known member
DONOR
An update to my post last week with the results from this last weekend. Some highlights:
- SE Lousiana looking like the real deal after demolishing McNeese.
- EKU blew out Tennessee State. Looks like another late season melt down for the Tigers.
- Delaware with a big win @ Towson. CPUs & SRS still don't like the Hens though.
- W&M in a convincing win over New Hampshire. UNH playoff hopes waning.
- JMU over Villanova. Villanova reeling with 3 losses in a row and knocked out of the chase.
- UNI now with 5 losses in a row. Illinois State gets a nice win, but have SIU & NDSU still...
- Samford drops a bad game against The Citadel. SOCON looking like a 1-bid conference?
- Chattanooga furious rally against App St. Chatt & Samford control destiny for AQ.
- Central Arkansas drops a tough one against NW State. Likely out of the race.

To start limiting the picture:
- The PFL and NEC will only get one team. Both conferences have some interesting AQ races, but all that matters is these two conferences will only take up 2 playoff spots.
- Duquesne in the drivers seat with a win over RMU.
- San Diego in the lead with wins over co-leaders Marist & Butler.

LOCKS (Not guaranteed to be in, but pretty darn close)
North Dakota State: GPI 1, SRS 1 (MVFC AQ)
Eastern Illinois: GPI 2, SRS 2 (OVC AQ)
Maine: GPI 3, SRS 8 (CAA AQ)
Eastern Washington: GPI 4, SRS 7 (BSkC AQ)
Coastal Carolina: GPI 5, SRS 4 (BSoC AQ)
Youngstown State: GPI 6, SRS 13
SE Louisiana: GPI 7, SRS 3 (SLC AQ)
Bethune-Cookman: GPI 8, SRS 12 (MEAC AQ)
Towson: GPI 9, SRS 6
Sam Houston State: GPI 10, SRS 14
McNeese State: GPI 12, SRS 10


Other AQs (9 AQs Accounted For, 2 left)
SOCON: Chattanooga: GPI 30, SRS 28 Samford & Chattanooga both control their own destiny.
Patriot: Lafayette: GPI 70, SRS 56 Only team without a conference loss in the PL.

Note that Fordham cannot earn the AQ for the Patriot this year, but they can get an at-large bid.


On the Right Side of Bubble 15 Spots Gone, 9 to Go
Fordham: GPI 11, SRS 20 Survived a scare this weekend, but still have an easy schedule to close out. Even if they lose a game, they probably still get in.

Montana: GPI 13, SRS 16 Big, gutsy win on the road this weekend that bumped them up in the ratings. They are now the 2nd best team out of the Big Sky from the GPI and SRS perspective. Grab another big road win in Vermillion this weekend, should get the W against Weber, and the Griz are likely in the playoffs.

Montana State: GPI 14, SRS 23 The UNC game really hurt the Cats in regard to their ratings. Even though they are Top 5 in both polls, the CPUs and SRS have them just outside the Top 20. The Cats are going to need to win 2 out of 3 to assure a playoff spot. 8-4 could put them in danger.

William & Mary: GPI 15, SRS 11 Big win against UNH puts them in perfect position to make the playoffs. If they can split with Delaware/Towson and take the last game against a down Richmond, they probably have done enough to get in at 8-4.

Northern Arizona: GPI 17, SRS 33 A big discrepancy between GPI and SRS. Here's where the SRS can be questionable. NAU hasn't won any of their games convincingly, and have been blown out in both of their losses. So their MOV is only 2.444, which is pulling down their SRS ranking. I'm not totally convinced a 9-2 NAU makes the playoffs as their GPI will continue to go down with games against UNC/SUU. They don't get love in the Polls, which hurts them. A loss knocks them out of playoff contention.

Eastern Kentucky: GPI 18, SRS 19 On the rise after the statement blowout over Tennessee State. They are in if they win out, and would have an argument if they end up winning 2 of 3 and going 8-4. Three losses are to Louisville, Coastal Carolina, and Eastern Illinois - nothing to be ashamed of there.

Southern Illinois: GPI 19, SRS 17 Still need to win out to get to 7 D-I wins, but they are all winnable games. If they win out, they are definitely in the playoffs. An 8-4 SIU team has a better resume than most 9 win teams. Close losses to Illinois, EIU, and YSU bolster their case.

South Dakota State: GPI 20, SRS 26 Winning their remaining three games would solidify a playoff spot for the Jackrabbits, but they close at YSU - so it will be a tall task. The win over SE Louisiana is looking better each passing week, and a 7-5 record would give them a strong GPI and SRS. A 7-5 SDSU will probably have a better resume than some of the teams above at 8-4. Don't be surprised if a 7-5 SDSU gets in over an 8-4 UM, MSU, W&M, or EKU.

Delaware: GPI 29, SRS 44 Their lackluster performances against a weak schedule is really hurting their SRS, and also affecting their GPI. But the big win at Towson boosts them right into playoff contention. If they split with W&M/Villanova and take care of business against Richmond, they are probably in at 9-3. The head to head win over JMU also helps them grab the 4th playoff spot out of the CAA.

That's 24 teams in the field. I don't think they all stay up here, and now a few who could take a spot.


Have Work to Do Still have control of their destiny.
Samford: GPI 24, SRS 25 The loss to Citadel this weekend is devastating to their at-large hopes. They'd have to win out for consideration, but if that happens they take the SOCON AQ. If they drop another game, they definitely aren't getting in at 8-4. A 7-4 or 7-5 MVFC team has a much stronger case than Samford.

Chattanooga: GPI 30, SRS 28 Two big games to closeout their season against Wofford and Samford. Win both, and they take the SOCON AQ. If they were to drop one and also lose the AQ, they have Alabama which will help their ratings - but 8-4 is out just like Samford.

Tennessee-Martin: GPI 25, SRS 35 They have a real tough schedule to close out: Memphis, EKU, and EIU. Ouch. If they win out and go 9-3, they deserve a playoff spot. If they can take down EIU and EKU, they still probably have a better argument at 8-4 than UM/MSU/W&M as they would close out with a huge win over EIU. That's a tough spot for the Skyhawks.

Northern Iowa: GPI 24, SRS 9 Despite their 5 game losing streak, UNI still clings to a faint hope of the playoffs. If they win out and go 7-5, they would have a top 15 GPI and top 5 SRS. Similar to SDSU above, a 7-5 MVFC team wouldn't be a shocker to get in over some 8-4 teams vying for the last playoff spots.

James Madison: GPI 28, SRS 32 If JMU can win out and grab wins against UNH and Towson, that would give them a real strong argument for the playoffs at 9-3. At 8-4, their GPI would still be lower than some of the other potential 8-4 teams discussed above - but they would have a couple of good wins and might steal a playoff spot.

Jacksonville State: GPI 31, SRS 30 They also have EIU and EKU left on their schedule, and they'll need to win one of those games to have an argument for the playoffs. If they split with EIU/EKU, and take care of business against SEMO - they'd be 9-3 with a decent resume. Worst case for other bubble teams is if they lose to EKU, but beat EIU. That likely means three teams from the OVC would get in.

Southern Utah: GPI 39, SRS 49 Not a very strong GPI or SRS, but with games against MSU and NAU remaining, they can probably win their way into the playoffs. Going to be a tough task, but not out of the realm of possibilities.


Likely Out It would be a surprise to see them in the playoffs at this point.
Wofford: GPI 38, SRS 41 Classic case of historical performance influencing the human polls. They haven't done anything to justify their position in the polls, and yet are ranked top 20 in both. Even if they were to win out, Samford still has the head to head win to take the AQ. So they need help in addition to winning out. An 8-3 Wofford will be lucky to crack the top 30 in GPI or SRS - the loss to Gardner Webb is a killer. Things are looking bleak for the Terriers.

Villanova: GPI 16, SRS 5 The CPUs and SRS absolutely love Villanova. They can't get to 7 D-I wins at this point, but it will be interesting to see what happens if they win out. I *think* the 7 D-I qualification is still something the committee considers. Should they win out, they would have a top 10 GPI and top 5 SRS. Villanova will truly test the viability of the SRS if this pans out. How can a ranking system have a team in the top 5 that can't even get 7 D-I wins?? I have them out at this point given their record - but they make a good case for discussion in regard to the ratings and selection criteria. The SRS values a .500 team with the most difficult schedule just as much as an undefeated team with a mid-level SOS (Villanova/Coastal Carolina essentially have the same SRS right now.)

Tennessee State: GPI 21, SRS 21 After a couple of rough weeks against EIU and EKU, the Tigers may have been knocked out. Even if they win out and go 9-3, their GPI will likely come down lower as one of their games is against #111 (Austin Peay). There's nothing on their resume that justifies them to make the playoffs, and the beating they took against EKU solidifies the case to leave them out.

Illinois State: GPI 23, SRS 36 They've got a nice 3 game winning streak that has pushed them onto the bubble, but with road games against NDSU and SIU remaining - this will be about the closest they get to the playoffs this year.

South Carolina State: GPI 33, SRS 24 Their soft remaining schedule likely means they'll end up at 9-3 with a worse GPI than they currently have. Hard to see two teams coming out of the MEAC.

Central Arkansas: GPI 35, SRS 31 The choke against Northwestern State this weekend likely means they are done. If they win out and go 8-4, they would have wins against SE Louisiana and Sam Houston. That's probably enough to catapult them into a playoff spot. But I don't think this team can win both of those games.

New Hampshire: GPI 36, SRS 29 The shutout loss against W&M hurts big time. They needed that win to push their GPI and SRS higher, and now need to win out just to go 7-4. That would include wins over JMU and Maine, but I'm not sure that's enough to get them in the playoffs. They are likely done at this point.

Cal Poly: GPI 37, SRS 35 Could still win out and go 7-5, which would include a big win against EWU. However, that still may not be enough to drive their GPI and SRS high enough for consideration. It would take a lot of other teams taking some bad losses for Cal Poly to get in.

Charleston Southern: GPI 42, SRS 65 A good looking record, but a bad GPI. I think they need to beat Coastal Carolina and take the Big South AQ to get in. Even a 10-2 CSU doesn't look too strong in regard to GPI.

Murray State: GPI 41, SRS 42 Still alive, but a really tough schedule to close. Hard to see it happening.

South Dakota: GPI 43, SRS 47 Still alive, but a really tough schedule to close. Hard to see it happening.

Lehigh: GPI 47, SRS 62 If they win out, they take the AQ for the PL. If they lose a game, they definitely aren't getting an at-large.
 
Montana Gym Rat said:
Northern Arizona: GPI 17, SRS 33 A big discrepancy between GPI and SRS. Here's where the SRS can be questionable. NAU hasn't won any of their games convincingly, and have been blown out in both of their losses. So their MOV is only 2.444, which is pulling down their SRS ranking. I'm not totally convinced a 9-2 NAU makes the playoffs as their GPI will continue to go down with games against UNC/SUU. They don't get love in the Polls, which hurts them. A loss knocks them out of playoff contention.

NAU had 3 tough games on their schedule: U of A, UM and MSU. They lost 2 of 3. The rest of their schedule was perhaps the easiest in the Big Sky.
 
Robsnotes4u said:
Cap'n you post a link to the SRS? Thanks

I wish I could. It doesn't exist. Well, at least with FCS included anyway.

Here's a link to the published Week 9 SRS:
http://www.footballperspective.com/week-9-college-football-srs-ratings-fsu-oregon-bama-and-baylor-stand-alone/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Fortunately, the Simple Ranking System is just that - simple. It is only based on two variables (and the 2nd variable is based on the 1st). So all you need to do is calculate the MOV for each game played, and then perform an iterative calculation to develop SOS and SRS. I built a spreadsheet that calculates SRS as I add game results to it. I'll post the list in a new thread along with GPI.
 
AZGrizFan said:
Montana Gym Rat said:
Northern Arizona: GPI 17, SRS 33 A big discrepancy between GPI and SRS. Here's where the SRS can be questionable. NAU hasn't won any of their games convincingly, and have been blown out in both of their losses. So their MOV is only 2.444, which is pulling down their SRS ranking. I'm not totally convinced a 9-2 NAU makes the playoffs as their GPI will continue to go down with games against UNC/SUU. They don't get love in the Polls, which hurts them. A loss knocks them out of playoff contention.

NAU had 3 tough games on their schedule: U of A, UM and MSU. They lost 2 of 3. The rest of their schedule was perhaps the easiest in the Big Sky.

NAU's SOS from the SRS is 33.430, which is 18th best in FCS. If it wasn't for their SOS, they wouldn't even be sniffing a playoff spot.

As a comparison, UM's SOS is 25.809 (good for 69th). MSU's SOS is 23.970 (good for 76th).
 
Montana Gym Rat said:
AZGrizFan said:
Montana Gym Rat said:
Northern Arizona: GPI 17, SRS 33 A big discrepancy between GPI and SRS. Here's where the SRS can be questionable. NAU hasn't won any of their games convincingly, and have been blown out in both of their losses. So their MOV is only 2.444, which is pulling down their SRS ranking. I'm not totally convinced a 9-2 NAU makes the playoffs as their GPI will continue to go down with games against UNC/SUU. They don't get love in the Polls, which hurts them. A loss knocks them out of playoff contention.

NAU had 3 tough games on their schedule: U of A, UM and MSU. They lost 2 of 3. The rest of their schedule was perhaps the easiest in the Big Sky.

NAU's SOS from the SRS is 33.430, which is 18th best in FCS. If it wasn't for their SOS, they wouldn't even be sniffing a playoff spot.

As a comparison, UM's SOS is 25.809 (good for 69th). MSU's SOS is 23.970 (good for 76th).

Just because of U of A. I place very little credence in calculated SOS numbers.
 

Latest posts

Back
Top