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Playing “Not To Lose”

W

WaGriz4life

Well-known member
I bet Lions fans wish they played Not To Lose tonight. The “put the foot on the gas pedal” “Go for it!!!” crowd had a rough night tonight.

All the best coaches who have ever lived settle for field goals and punt. Let’s hear it from the “Go for it!!! Play to win!!!” crowd…….
 
WaGriz4life said:
I bet Lions fans wish they played Not To Lose tonight. The “put the foot on the gas pedal” “Go for it!!!” crowd had a rough night tonight.

All the best coaches who have ever lived settle for field goals and punt. Let’s hear it from the “Go for it!!! Play to win!!!” crowd…….
Click to expand...

Kicking field goals is playing to lose?
 
HikeGlacier said:
WaGriz4life said:
I bet Lions fans wish they played Not To Lose tonight. The “put the foot on the gas pedal” “Go for it!!!” crowd had a rough night tonight.

All the best coaches who have ever lived settle for field goals and punt. Let’s hear it from the “Go for it!!! Play to win!!!” crowd…….
Click to expand...

Kicking field goals is playing to lose?
Click to expand...

If you listen to a lot of posters here, when you get up by any amount of points in the second half, that means you should be airing it out and going for it on 4th and short, really trying to pour on the points, otherwise you are playing "bobbyball" if you run the ball and try to kill clock, and everybody knows that trying to take time off the clock when you have a lead is for dummies and losers.
 
I only watch the final three games of the NFL. This is the biggest choke job I have ever seen.
Or, is it something bigger than 'choking?'
 
WaGriz4life said:
I bet Lions fans wish they played Not To Lose tonight. The “put the foot on the gas pedal” “Go for it!!!” crowd had a rough night tonight.

All the best coaches who have ever lived settle for field goals and punt. Let’s hear it from the “Go for it!!! Play to win!!!” crowd…….
Click to expand...

I thought the same thing. I would taken the FG. Said so at the time. I'm fine with being aggressive, tho. I like what some of the NFL coaches are starting to do in terms of being aggressive. Detroit did this all season. I have no problem with the decision.
 
"The Lions went for it on fourth down. They didn’t get it. Then they proceeded to blow their shot at the Super Bowl.

In the second half, the Lions twice turned the ball over on downs when they were in position to kick a field goal. Those decisions potentially cost them six points in a game they lost by three.

In truth, the Lions' aggressive fourth-down calls are more a reflection of the modern NFL than they are a brazen anomaly. These types of calls are increasingly common because they’re supported by analytics, and in both instances on Sunday, statistical models aligned with Campbell’s calls. That type of forward thinking is one of the reasons for Detroit’s turnaround under him—until it backfired in spectacular fashion."

Wall St. Journal.
 
I'm ignorant on what all goes into sports analytics. Does it only give you a decision based on that snapshot play in time (i.e. you will convert the fourth down or not)? Or does it also take into account the probability the result of that decision will result in a subsequent score on either your continuing drive or the drive of the opponent that stopped you? The "momentum effect" if you will.
 
I didn't have a problem with him going for it, but calling passing plays both times when the Lions ground game was beating SF was lame.
 
HikeGlacier said:
WaGriz4life said:
I bet Lions fans wish they played Not To Lose tonight. The “put the foot on the gas pedal” “Go for it!!!” crowd had a rough night tonight.

All the best coaches who have ever lived settle for field goals and punt. Let’s hear it from the “Go for it!!! Play to win!!!” crowd…….
Click to expand...

Kicking field goals is playing to lose?
Click to expand...

Have you figured out yet that kicking a FG, or two, instead of going for it on 4th down, is safer, or can be safer, than going for it on 4th down (and not making it)? Did you watch the Lions game? And, as some Griz fans like to say, playing not to lose. You make posts sometime that make me think you don't know much about football? What's your football background? Or, are you just a kid? I can't figure out what seems to cause your football deficiency. You don't seem to be a jerk, tho, so, so far, I'm okay with you.
 
mtgriz said:
I'm ignorant on what all goes into sports analytics. Does it only give you a decision based on that snapshot play in time (i.e. you will convert the fourth down or not)? Or does it also take into account the probability the result of that decision will result in a subsequent score on either your continuing drive or the drive of the opponent that stopped you? The "momentum effect" if you will.
Click to expand...

I assume that football analytics is more sophisticated than a snapshot, but I don't know what it includes. Good, maybe great, question. I will see what I can find.

Edit: This is what my data scientist friend (for hoops) said: "Typically you are looking at how that decision will affect Net points in a game so it would factor in the probability you convert and score/don’t score as well as opponent taking over and scoring/not scoring.

Mostly just making decisions that have the highest expected net points."
 
mthoopsfan said:
mtgriz said:
I'm ignorant on what all goes into sports analytics. Does it only give you a decision based on that snapshot play in time (i.e. you will convert the fourth down or not)? Or does it also take into account the probability the result of that decision will result in a subsequent score on either your continuing drive or the drive of the opponent that stopped you? The "momentum effect" if you will.
Click to expand...

I assume that football analytics is more sophisticated than a snapshot, but I don't know what it includes. Good, maybe great, question. I will see what I can find.

Edit: This is what my data scientist friend (for hoops) said: "Typically you are looking at how that decision will affect Net points in a game so it would factor in the probability you convert and score/don’t score as well as opponent taking over and scoring/not scoring.

Mostly just making decisions that have the highest expected net points."
Click to expand...

I like his aggression but that last attempt didn't make sense to me. Down 3, your D is getting gashed and has been on the field the whole 2nd half. Kick to tie and they get a good blow on the changeover and a chance to regroup.for the last 6 minutes all square. Instead down 2 scores with 3 to go and no chance. Left his D out to dry IMO. Also noticed a quick shot of the K at one point in that few minutes and he didn't look too happy. If they can pick up a couple solid DBs the Lions should be in the mix next year.
 
I was kind of surprised they didn't go for it to end the first half. I thought for sure Cambell was pulling the trigger then. Up 21-7, dominated the entire half, with a chance to lead by 21 late in the 2nd. Opted for easy field goal to go up 17. Didn't have an issue with it but for me personally it made his decision in the 4th quarter all that more perplexing.

That said, I've never been one to be real confident in kickers. Had he opted to kick a field goal and missed there'd be just as much talk about how he should have been aggressive and went for it as he did all season long.
 
Tongue (slightly) in cheek, I believe coaches might make different decisions if we started calling field goals “half touchdowns”.
 
Loved the calls he plays to win.

Now if the team would help out and not turn the ball over and drop passes they would have been in the Superbowl.
 
Playing not to lose later in games leads to more wins. I like wins.

Analytics is one piece of data, but it doesn’t include the quality of your kicker or players, how the game has gone, the current momentum and emotion of the game, and other factors. I like instinct of experienced coaches and players. Not saying Campbell is all analytics.

I would have kicked the 2d FG.
 
mthoopsfan said:
Playing not to lose later in games leads to more wins. I like wins.

Analytics is one piece of data, but it doesn’t include the quality of your kicker or players, how the game has gone, the current momentum and emotion of the game, and other factors. I like instinct of experienced coaches and players. Not saying Campbell is all analytics.

I would have kicked the 2d FG.
Click to expand...

Not sure I agree that you win more games that way. The reason they were in that game is because he threw the ball for a first down instead of just running. I think I would have kicked the 2nd one too unless my kickers name was Tyler Bass. That was a pretty good example of playing not to lose. Thinking you were going to give Mahomes the ball back with 2 minutes left and a 2 point lead was going to hold.
 
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