Out at 7-4?

[GlacierGrizX]

Would we need a 60-7 game against the Cats to even move or even get the attention of the selection committee?

 

[UTGrizFan]

I see us getting in at 7-4 wether or not we deserve it at this point is another matter, unlike most FCS schools we actually can create a lot of revenue because of our fan base which I fell will be a deciding factor when also debating on other bubble teams

 

[bitterrootobserver]

First order of business: Krush the kitties, so the Griz actually end up at 7-4. Then it becomes a numbers game, mostly. So what are those numbers? (I know this is messy, but bear with me.)

... ... ... ...

So, in the end, the Griz have a chance at a bid with a 7-4 record, but they’re likely to need some help, and some luck.

Come on Ida Griz -stop using facts when discussing this subject.

Actually - When you see these possibilities it does look like we do have a good shot at the playoffs if we beat the Scats.

We are definitely a different team at home and a first round game at WaGriz would give us a chance at a victory. But second round at NDSU or SDSU and things would end pretty much like last year. Best case scenario would be a second chance at EWOO - possibly a decent Griz crowd there again. Getting way ahead of myself, but I'd go back to Cheney.

I think Ewoo would love to play the Griz with the way Stitt has his team playing on the road. It's a better alternative for the Eags than a tougher SDSU, Weber, Cal Poly or UND coming to town. It would also allow the Eags to put a bigger beat down on UM then they did last time. I'd project somewhere in the 49 to 16 range.

 

[Eriul]

I dunno about the process really but I would imagine if it's sort of close they will get us in based on revenue alone

 

[IdaGriz01]

Field may be a bit tighter than I thought. Last year, Chattanooga and The Citadel ended the year tied in the SoCon and both got bids (Citadel had the head-to-head and got the auto-bid). This year, The Citadel won the conference decisively -- two games over the nearest competitor.

So I made the assumption that the SoCon would be back to a one-bid conference. With the exception of last year, that has been true ever since App State and Ga Southern moved up. But now over on STATS.com, Haley is talking up the possibility that SoCon teams could get one or more at-large bids. That would definitely cut the number of open spots for the many 7-4 teams. Not good.

 

[Grizzly Oredigger]

First order of business: Krush the kitties, so the Griz actually end up at 7-4. Then it becomes a numbers game, mostly. So what are those numbers? (I know this is messy, but bear with me.)

Auto-bids
BSC: North Dakota (9-2). [Since EWU and UND did not play each other, I’m not sure how the tie-breakers work. But it doesn’t matter, since if EWU got the auto, UND would surely get an at-large.]
Big South: Charleston Southern (6-3). [Complicated tie-breaker in the Big South (according to STATS.com). Kennesaw State (8-2) shot itself in the foot with three below-D1 games (wins). Charleston Southern had two below-D1 wins. Likely to be a one-bid conference unless Liberty (6-4) can somehow get into the mix.]
CAA: James Madison (9-1).
MVFC: SDSU (7-3) [NDSU has the better overall record, but SDSU has the tie-breaker. But both will get bids, no matter how the final games play out.]
NEC: St Francis (PA) (7-3).
OVC: Jacksonville State (9-1) [J’ville State gets to play UT-Martin at home, so they’re the likely winner. If UT-M pulls off the upset, they’d get the auto-bid, but J-State would then get an at-large. Either way, Tennessee State (6-4), whether it wins or lose its final game, would probably not be a factor since no one seems to expect the OVC to be a three-bid conference.]
Patriot: Lehigh (8-2).
Pioneer: San Diego (8-1).
SoCon: Citadel (10-0).
Southland: SHSU (10-0) [SHSU and Central Arkansas meet in the final game of the season. The loser will almost surely get an at-large bid.].

Safe at-large: EWU (9-1), Richmond (8-2), Villanova (7-3), NDSU (9-1), Central Arkansas (9-1) [see above]

Possible at large
UT-Martin (7-4) [Losing to Jacksonville State would give them a 7-5 record, which might still be enough to get them an at-large bid.]
NC Central (8-2) [North Carolina A&T and NNC Central are currently tied for the MEAC lead. They play next weekend. The winner will play in the MEAC-SWAC bowl thing, but the loser might get an at-large bid. (But that is not a given).]
Youngstown State (7-3) [YSU plays at Missouri State (4-6) in their final game, which they are most likely to win. That would give them a record of 8-3 and a certain bid. If they lost, they’d fall into the 7-4 mix and might get bumped. On the other hand, there's talk that a 6-5 MVFC team might get in ... so we'll call it a wash.]

So with the auto-bids and the safe or possible at-large bids, we have 18 spots most likely taken. That would leave at least 6, and probably no more than 8 left.

As it stands now, there are 14 teams with 6-4 records (including the Griz) who are currently in contention for those spots. But that narrows down quickly. Drake (Pioneer League) has virtually no chance, with Dayton (and Diego) ahead of it. Same goes for Sacred Heart, since the NEC is a one-bid conference unless somebody has a lights-out record. And no way does Prairie View get an at-large out of the SWAC. As suggested above, Tennessee State (6-4) will probably not get a third bid out of the OVC … although they are favored to win their final game at SE Missouri State (3-7). Liberty is at (ineligible) Coastal Carolina (8-2), so it is most likely to be eliminated. That leaves us with nine teams trying for those 6-8 spots.

Cal Poly and Northern Colorado face off in their final game, so the 7-4 winner would almost surely get the nod over the Griz. The loser, at 6-5 would be out. Similarly, Maine plays New Hampshire, so the winner is likely to get a fourth CAA bid. Now we’re down to five team with 4-6 bids remaining.

So what’s left? Western Illinois is at SIU (3-7), most likely a win for them. That would give the MVFC another bid … which is a virtual certainty for a 7-4 team from that conference.
Albany (6-4) has Stony Brook (5-5) at home, so they would be favored. Would Albany get a fifth CAA spot if they won? They might, but maybe not.
SE Louisiana (6-4) is at Nicholls (5-5), so that might be a toss-up. But a win would give SELA a chance at a third Southland bid.
Weber State is at ISU (2-8). A win (likely) puts them in the hunt for a fourth BSC bid. Not good for the Griz, but that might be a case where the Griz rep carried them through.

So, in the end, the Griz have a chance at a bid with a 7-4 record, but they’re likely to need some help, and some luck.

After the Griz win (hopefully): Root for UNCo over Cal Poly...They'd both end up with 6 d-1 wins in that scenario (we'd have 7 even though we lost to both of them). We should be ahead of Weber both at 7-4, due to their weak schedule and the Griz MVFC win over UNI (Weber lost to South Dakota). So...if (seems like a big if) UNCo wins, we should be the Big Sky's 3rd team in. Even if Poly wins, we're the 4th Big Sky team should the committee let us in.

 

[OmegaGRIZ]

If Griz start Brady this weekend we lose at home. If we don't have Calhoun back we lose at home no matter who starts.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

[Great Day To Be An Eagle]

First order of business: Krush the kitties, so the Griz actually end up at 7-4. Then it becomes a numbers game, mostly. So what are those numbers? (I know this is messy, but bear with me.)

... ... ... ...

So, in the end, the Griz have a chance at a bid with a 7-4 record, but they’re likely to need some help, and some luck.

Come on Ida Griz -stop using facts when discussing this subject.

Actually - When you see these possibilities it does look like we do have a good shot at the playoffs if we beat the Scats.

We are definitely a different team at home and a first round game at WaGriz would give us a chance at a victory. But second round at NDSU or SDSU and things would end pretty much like last year. Best case scenario would be a second chance at EWOO - possibly a decent Griz crowd there again. Getting way ahead of myself, but I'd go back to Cheney.

We would gladly welcome you back to Cheney!

 

[pussycatkillerz]

One thing's for sure. If the Griz put up fewer points than the cats on the scoreboard then we will lose at home.