Montana WBB Blow vs. NAU

[grizzlyjournal]

"Blow," as in "blown layups."

Story link: https://gogriz.com/news/2024/2/8/womens-basketball-northern-arizona-tops-montana-at-dahlberg

The coverage story at GoGriz (link above) tells the tale of Montana's home-court loss to a very good NAU team... and its outstanding NAU sophomore post player: Sophie Glancey. Montana coach Brian Holsinger did not offer many excuses, nor should he have. The Griz could not stop Glancey, which points to the failure of Montana's defense. But this was a win-able game.

However, to me... there are a couple of overlooked stats that more accurately explain Montana's loss. Shooting percentage. Montana's game-ending shooting percentage was 30.9%. Several times this year folks have used the term: "Live by the 3. Die by the 3."

But Montana shot 38% from beyond the arc! Their 11-for-28 conversion of treys was very good. That % is usually good enough for a Griz win. It's the other part of that shooting % that -- by my observation -- tallied up a 9-point home court loss. It was the 6-for-27 Griz shooting % from inside the arc that hurt the most. That's because MOST of those shots were within the paint. MOST of those shot were missed layups or short jumpers within 6 feet of the hoop. Boiled down to shooting percentage, Montana's 6-27 ratio equals 22% shooting from inside the arc/paint. Ugh.

NAU came into the game with the obvious goal of limiting Montana's outside shooting prowess. That they did... but not completely. Their "jump the trey" defense thus opened the court wide for Montana. However, the ensuing drives by numerous players (not just one or two) ended up as misses. Some pretty bad. Were they contested? Yes, but most of the Griz drives for misses were very "make-able." They were layups or short, driving bankers. Which they shot at a 22% ratio.

At this point, the loss doesn't set the Griz back too much. But the next two home games... vs. UNC, which beat the Griz in Greeley, and MSU, which is possibly the most improved, and dangerous team in the Big Sky right now... are Big. A loss to either team pushes Montana back into the mid-conference scramble where they've been over the past 5-6 years. Big games for Montana ahead. I personally think the Griz are up to the challenge. Hope so. Go GrizWBB.

 

[GrizCC1979]

Well said. Add seemed no way to stop Glancey in second half.

 

[Mousegriz]

Glance was amazing at catching easy post entry passes turning around and shooting uncontested 3 footers.

 

[TrueGriz]

NAU has the best offense in the league. EWU statistically has the best defense in the league but gave up 89 points to NAU.

So, I really do not blame the loss on defense by the Lady Griz but mostly on the shooting inside the arc. Kind of wonder if having such open layups came as such a surprise to our shooters that they just tightened up and choked on them all. Konig was possibly the best player to score inside (2 of 5), but should have made 2 more shots. I think Maggie missed all her attempts inside. Marxen is just not shooting very well inside and out.

They held NAU around 10 points below their average, so they at least gave themselves a shot at winning, but poor inside shooting inside and too many turnovers in the second half cost the Lady Griz. Also, NAU had some a bit of luck on their side when shots go off the rim straight up 10 or so feet and fall back right through the netting for a 3 pointer. At least that was one instance. Many of their misses just happened to bounce off the rim just where another NAU player was who was able to an easy basket. Lady Griz just didn't seemed to have such luck.
And, of course, NAU just happened to have a player who just got hot in the second half. Glancey scored only 5 points in the first half.

Anyway, I like watching this team better, I think Holsinger has recruited some players that are better. But, I am not sure about his coaching ability in getting the players to perform to the best of their abilities. They have improved defensively so far this year, but they need to improve more and at a faster rate. They still turn the ball over to often. The 9 turnovers in the second half was certainly a large factor in the Lady Griz losing yesterday.

 

[TrueGriz]

Just want to add. Libby Stump would have really helped in this game. Her most effective shot ( within 15 feet out) is in the area the Lady Griz missed most of their shots.

 

[Grizrunr]

The rebounds and turnovers hurt. NAU took 15 more shots than us. We also could have done more to make the entry passes into Glancey a little more difficult. I felt like we executed well enough to win. Our offense produced good open looks, we just didn't make many of them. I like our chances against NAU more than I do against EWU and the MSU come tourney time. We seem to struggle against teams that play aggressive pressure defense. I predict MSU will take down NAU on Saturday.

 

[Mousegriz]

Just want to add. Libby Stump would have really helped in this game. Her most effective shot ( within 15 feet out) is in the area the Lady Griz missed most of their shots.

Same with Lady Griz 6th year all conference ?? post. 4 of 15 on the night and TWO rebounds.

 

[TrueGriz]

Just want to add. Libby Stump would have really helped in this game. Her most effective shot ( within 15 feet out) is in the area the Lady Griz missed most of their shots.

Same with Lady Griz 6th year all conference ?? post. 4 of 15 on the night and TWO rebounds.

GFeller was 4 - 12 inside the arc. 0 for 3 from 3 point line. But if Stump shot 4 - 12 from inside the arc also, along with three freethrows like Carmen, Lady Griz win.

Konig and Gfeller were the only 2 players to make a basket from within the arc. Lady Griz shot 6 for 27 (22%) from within the arc.

This game was live by the 3, die by the 2.

 

[MissionM]

Griz win if Stump scores 11 - but somehow takes away none of the productivity of the players she substitutes for. Very poor logic.
Pretty weak prediction on NAU-MSU as well. NAU holds a strong lead throughout for the second time this season against the Bobcats.