Mariner off season moves...

[bozbobcat]

Reed is a very solid center fielder and the Mariners should make every effort to keep him. They've lost two Gold Glove center fielders in the last 7 years and Safeco Field is one of those places that a big-time player is needed out there. The farm system seems to be strong, so maybe they should go with those young players, like Betancourt at SS and King Felix. This is also the same farm system that brought up Griffey and A-Rod. So they should go with internal talent.

 

[OldtiredGRiz]

Reed gets hammered around here a lot (Seattle area sports bar conversations, arm chair managers, etc.) I don't understand it. The guy can flat out play centerfield with the best of them. It takes a few years of major league at bats to become a proficient hitter; he got better as the season progressed. I got to watch Griffey roam centerfield in his prime and Cameron wasn't a drop off -- Reed is every bit as good defensively as those two. What concerns me the most is the Mariners long history of making bad trades. Except for the Kenny Phelps for Buhner gem with the Yankees; pretty much all of the trades I've seen over the years have been poor ones for the Mariners. Randy Johnson to the Astros was forced because they wouldn't have been able to re-sign the Big Unit, but look at the players they got in return; Freddy Garcia, gone to the White Sox (and enjoying a nice World Series share Halama, gone, I think he last played for Boston, but am not sure; and Carlos Guillen, moved on to Detroit and playing like an All Star. It sounds like you guys read the PI and the Times online, so no doubt you see those articles about the ex-Mariner all stars around the league. Shortly after Dave Winfield signed the first million dollar contract with the Yankees, myself and some friends were bugging him at a game at the Kingdome. We were in left field, right behind him. All we were doing was asking him -- rather loudly -- to borrow a few bucks. Of course we got kicked out of the game. That philosophy is at the heart of Lincoln's quest and it's a quest that doesn't seem likely to change or to bring a winning team back to Safeco.

 

[GrizBiz]

The problem with the M's minor league system is two fold: First, a healthy amount of the pitchers that we thought would hit the majors wound up getting hurt. Remember the "Little Unit" Ryan Anderson? Two labrum surgeries and toast. Cha Seung Baek? Tommy John surgery and just released. Meche? Labrum surgery and headcase to boot. Piniero? Who knows what's up with him but the steroid rumors are rampant. Blackley? Labrum surgery - should start in Tacoma this year. Heaverlo? Labrum surgery - should pitch out of the pen in Tacoma this year. Independent league signings like Campillo and Madritsch haven't panned out, although there is some hope for Atchison. We literally went from an embarassing richness of young talented pitchers to a relatively barren system. The "King" Felix is great and the "Doctor" Livingston could be Barry Zito after a year in Tacoma but after that things are pretty bare. Bavasi's trades in the last year have restocked the system with some pitching but it's still not pretty down there.

Second, the Pat Gillik method of signing mid-tier veterans every year starved the system of high draft picks and the position talent is thin in the high minors right now. We have no real power hitters in the system other than 2005 draft pick Clement and that hurts. The hitters we do have (Clement, Tui and Jones) are a couple of years away at best. Gillik's preference for soft-tossing lefties with good changeups has also hurt. Jamie Moyer is a once in a generation guy - there is no way that he should succeed by throwing that junk up there but he somehow does.

Damn this is frustrating.

 

[GrizBiz]

I feel your pain, OTG. I don't we came out too bad in the Freddy trade - by the time they traded him Lincoln had alientated him to the point that there was no way he was going to re-sign with the M's.

Not to pile on but word is now that the M's have signed Jarrod Washburn to a four year deal worth between $30-38 Million. I think I'm going to be sick. That pretty well uses up the pot of free agent money that the team had to spend. There might be another $4 million or so left but in this market, $4 million doesn't go very far. Speculation in the Seattle press is that they will use it on Meche. Unless Bavasi can pull some miracle trade out of his hat, we've got our 2006 Mariners.

SP: Felix
SP: Washburn
SP: Moyer
SP: Piniero
SP: Nageotte/Meche


RP: Nageotte/Meche
RP: Mateo
RP: Carvajal
RP: Putz
RP: Sherrill
RP: Soriano
Closer: Guardado

1B: Sexson
2B: Lopez
SS: YuBet
3B: Beltre
Ca: Johjima
LF: Ibanez
CF: Reed
RF: Ichiro
DH: Everett


Bench:
Bloomquist
Morse
Rivera
Dobbs


Hello 82 wins and a nifty third place finish in 2006. Goodbye Bavasi and Hargrove, we hardly knew 'ya.

 

[GRIZFAN20]

You meant Everett at DH, right?

 

[GrizBiz]

You meant Everett at DH, right?

Yeah - where the hell did I get Crawford? Brain fart - too much wine last night. If we had Carl Crawford I'd feel better, so maybe it was wishful thinking.

 

[bozbobcat]

That's a very solid lineup and also a decent bullpen. I just hope that the starting rotation holds. But it's going to be tough to get to 82 wins, but it's possible. The rest of the division is also strong.

 

[GrizBiz]

Ok, over the last 24 hours I've been talked back from the ledge a bit on the Washburn signing. He's still a dangerous 4 year contract but he is left handed and lefty pitchers do very well in Safeco. He probably the second best starter that the M's have which isn't good but he replaces Franklin and that is very good. The contract isn't so bad when one considers the market. Maybe next year we can land Zito to replace Moyer, put Zito in the #2 slot and drop Washburn down to #4. The White Sox paid their #4 & 5 starters about $9 million/year, so good depth in the rotation is obviously something to be desired.

I'm guessing that the batting order will be something like this:

1 Ichiro (L)
2 Johjima (R)
3 Sexson (R)
4 Ibanez (L)
5 Beltre (R)
6 Everett (L)
7 Lopez (R)
8 Reed(L)
9 YuBet (R)


You could flip Everett and Ibanez. I guess that's probably about league average for a lineup - decent L/R balance but sorely lacking in LH power. We will really be relying on Ichiro and Beltre to bounce back, Johjima to adjust to MLB pitching in a hurry and the youngsters (Reed, YuBet and Lopez) to improve. Sigh.

Bullpen will be the strength of the team and that should help the rotation out quite a bit.

 

[CerealCityGriz]

isn't Zito expected to be moved to another team this offseason?

 

[GrizBiz]

isn't Zito expected to be moved to another team this offseason?

With Beane, you never know. I doubt that he gets traded before the season starts now. There was some talk of a trade with Texas but I can't see Beane trading within the division. If the A's are in the hunt after the All Star Break he might hang on to him and try and win the west. He did that with Tejada - despite knowing that he's lose the guy to free agency, he kept him for the playoff run. After the season, he slapped the arbitration tag on him and collected the O's first round draft pick in compensation when they signed the SS. Nobody plays this game like Mr Moneyball.

I don't think that it matters one way or another for the M's, honestly. After the pitching contracts this year, Zito will probably command something like a 5 year/$65 million contract in free agency. No way he and his agent pass that up. He'll be available - whether the M's have the balls to pony up the cash and land him, well, I don't know. I do know that he'd look damn good pitching behind Felix in the rotation. :thumb:

 

[GrizBiz]

The M's signed Matt Lawton last night to a one year $400k + incentives deal. I don't quite know what to think of this one. He'll be a decent bench bat/4th outfielder but if they signed him to replace Reed I'm gonna be pissed.