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Lady Griz tournament projection
- Thread starter tfgrizfan
- Start date
GrizFan1999
Active member
that would be a good seed for the Lady Griz if it all pans out. i don't hold much stake in the bracketologists based on what came out of the mens bracket today but I still feel the LG deserve a spot in the big dance..
GRZFTBL
Well-known member
Will the Lady Griz be asked to dance?
By RIAL CUMMINGS
Missoulian
MISSOULA - Coach Robin Selvig and his Montana Lady Griz have blazed all sorts of firsts while forging a national-caliber women's basketball program and making 16 trips to the NCAA tournament.
This weekend, they faced another first: the three-day sweat.
Friday night's 64-59 upset loss to Northern Arizona in the semifinals of the Big Sky tournament left the regular-season champs in limbo. After breaking into the Associated Press poll for the first time since 1994, the No. 25-ranked Lady Griz found themselves, for the first time in Selvig's distinguished 29-year tenure, floating squarely on the bubble.
Patiently waiting
They can only wait, and hope, that their 27-3 record earns one of the 33 at-large berths to the 64-team NCAA tournament when the selection committee reveals the field today at 6 p.m. on ESPN. One way or the other, UM's season isn't over. They've earned a berth in the Women's National Invitation Tournament by virtue of the regular-season title. But, frankly, it would be a tepid consolation prize compared to the Big Dance.
"I'm just kind of hanging, sitting around," Selvig reported Saturday afternoon from his home in the Rattlesnake. "After a loss, especially one like that, you can't help replaying it over and over. And now, you're dealing with the unknown for three days."
Understand, the Lady Griz have never made the NCAA tournament as anything but an automatic qualifier, the reward for winning the conference's postseason tournament. And in the 19 years that the Big Sky has sponsored women's basketball, only one team, Boise State in 1994, has ever been handed an at-large berth.
Could this Lady Griz team be the second?
Charlie Creme, the women's bracket guru for ESPN, says yes. Logging onto espn.com Saturday morning, you would've found the Lady Griz still projected as a ninth seed - the same as when the week began - facing eighth-seeded Delaware in Raleigh, N.C. Looming in the next round would be top-ranked Duke.
Creme's confidence
Creme is so certain, he doesn't even list the Lady Griz among his picks as the last four teams in the field.
"The Lady Griz still have a bid and don't even drop too much," wrote Creme in his analysis. "But their loss gets a second bid for the Big Sky and knocks out another at-large candidate."
I can't tell you anything about Mr. Creme's credentials.
Suffice it to say, Selvig is taking any projections with a grain of salt the size of, well, a basketball.
"That's interesting," he said when told of ESPN's projection. "Of course, that's just one guy's deal. But you'd like to think that, if you're an eight or a nine seed, one loss wouldn't completely eliminate you. Unless it was losing to a poor team - and NAU is a good team."
The Lady Griz came into the week No. 48 in the NCAA's Rating Percentage Index (RPI), a supplemental tool the committee can use for seeding and at-large selections. UM is 1-1 against teams in the top 50 of the RPI (losing to No. 7 Ohio State, defeating No. 47 Gonzaga) and 2-0 against teams from 50 to 100 (wins over No. 59 Davidson and No. 73 Wyoming). That's a positive, as is the fact that UM won nine of its last 10 games.
UM won't be helped by a schedule that is rated 236th out of 335 Division I teams, the weakest among the RPI's top 100. NAU, at 112, is the next highest Big Sky team.
Fellow Big Sky coaches are pulling for the Lady Griz. NAU coach Laurie Kelly said she's praying that UM makes it and that the Lady Griz are "truly deserving." Weber State coach Carla Taylor said UM's ranking and national reputation should provide some needed leverage.
"A lot of it is subjective," Selvig said. "There are teams out there that will have much better wins than we have, but they'll also have some bad losses. You just never know. Utah had a team a few years ago that had an RPI in the high 30s. I assumed they'd make it, but they didn't."
In the past, the Lady Griz have gathered together to watch the selection show. But Selvig said no gathering is planned for today.
"As a coach, I don't want this team to feel bad," he said. "I don't want the ladies feeling like, with one game, they let everyone down. Whatever happens, they've had a phenomenal year, and it's not over."
But will they be dancing?
We'll just have to sweat it out.
By RIAL CUMMINGS
Missoulian
MISSOULA - Coach Robin Selvig and his Montana Lady Griz have blazed all sorts of firsts while forging a national-caliber women's basketball program and making 16 trips to the NCAA tournament.
This weekend, they faced another first: the three-day sweat.
Friday night's 64-59 upset loss to Northern Arizona in the semifinals of the Big Sky tournament left the regular-season champs in limbo. After breaking into the Associated Press poll for the first time since 1994, the No. 25-ranked Lady Griz found themselves, for the first time in Selvig's distinguished 29-year tenure, floating squarely on the bubble.
Patiently waiting
They can only wait, and hope, that their 27-3 record earns one of the 33 at-large berths to the 64-team NCAA tournament when the selection committee reveals the field today at 6 p.m. on ESPN. One way or the other, UM's season isn't over. They've earned a berth in the Women's National Invitation Tournament by virtue of the regular-season title. But, frankly, it would be a tepid consolation prize compared to the Big Dance.
"I'm just kind of hanging, sitting around," Selvig reported Saturday afternoon from his home in the Rattlesnake. "After a loss, especially one like that, you can't help replaying it over and over. And now, you're dealing with the unknown for three days."
Understand, the Lady Griz have never made the NCAA tournament as anything but an automatic qualifier, the reward for winning the conference's postseason tournament. And in the 19 years that the Big Sky has sponsored women's basketball, only one team, Boise State in 1994, has ever been handed an at-large berth.
Could this Lady Griz team be the second?
Charlie Creme, the women's bracket guru for ESPN, says yes. Logging onto espn.com Saturday morning, you would've found the Lady Griz still projected as a ninth seed - the same as when the week began - facing eighth-seeded Delaware in Raleigh, N.C. Looming in the next round would be top-ranked Duke.
Creme's confidence
Creme is so certain, he doesn't even list the Lady Griz among his picks as the last four teams in the field.
"The Lady Griz still have a bid and don't even drop too much," wrote Creme in his analysis. "But their loss gets a second bid for the Big Sky and knocks out another at-large candidate."
I can't tell you anything about Mr. Creme's credentials.
Suffice it to say, Selvig is taking any projections with a grain of salt the size of, well, a basketball.
"That's interesting," he said when told of ESPN's projection. "Of course, that's just one guy's deal. But you'd like to think that, if you're an eight or a nine seed, one loss wouldn't completely eliminate you. Unless it was losing to a poor team - and NAU is a good team."
The Lady Griz came into the week No. 48 in the NCAA's Rating Percentage Index (RPI), a supplemental tool the committee can use for seeding and at-large selections. UM is 1-1 against teams in the top 50 of the RPI (losing to No. 7 Ohio State, defeating No. 47 Gonzaga) and 2-0 against teams from 50 to 100 (wins over No. 59 Davidson and No. 73 Wyoming). That's a positive, as is the fact that UM won nine of its last 10 games.
UM won't be helped by a schedule that is rated 236th out of 335 Division I teams, the weakest among the RPI's top 100. NAU, at 112, is the next highest Big Sky team.
Fellow Big Sky coaches are pulling for the Lady Griz. NAU coach Laurie Kelly said she's praying that UM makes it and that the Lady Griz are "truly deserving." Weber State coach Carla Taylor said UM's ranking and national reputation should provide some needed leverage.
"A lot of it is subjective," Selvig said. "There are teams out there that will have much better wins than we have, but they'll also have some bad losses. You just never know. Utah had a team a few years ago that had an RPI in the high 30s. I assumed they'd make it, but they didn't."
In the past, the Lady Griz have gathered together to watch the selection show. But Selvig said no gathering is planned for today.
"As a coach, I don't want this team to feel bad," he said. "I don't want the ladies feeling like, with one game, they let everyone down. Whatever happens, they've had a phenomenal year, and it's not over."
But will they be dancing?
We'll just have to sweat it out.
GrizBBIsKing
Well-known member
two bracketologists that post theirs on the web I know of. Creme of ESPN and Palm at collegerpi.com
Creme has Lady Griz seeded 10th. the collegerpi.com doesn't seem to think much of the Lady Griz and didn't predict Lady Griz to be selected as an at-large team.
Now, those thinking WAC would help Lady Griz, neither guy has more than 1 WAC team in the tournament in their prediction. WAC isn't much stronger than the Big Sky.
Creme has Lady Griz seeded 10th. the collegerpi.com doesn't seem to think much of the Lady Griz and didn't predict Lady Griz to be selected as an at-large team.
Now, those thinking WAC would help Lady Griz, neither guy has more than 1 WAC team in the tournament in their prediction. WAC isn't much stronger than the Big Sky.
GrizBBIsKing
Well-known member
Re/MaxGriz said:
I agree. But, that Strength of Schedule rank of around 235 does not help the Lady Griz at all. Look at Gonzaga two years ago, same record as Lady Griz. but a Strength of Record ranking of around 211 hurt them even though Gonzaga had a win against a top 25 ranked team in RPI. Lady Griz beat only 1 team in top 50 in RPI (Gonzaga), and that team is barely ranked in top 50 at that.
What abount injuries. In the the mem's brackets they kept talking about how the committee could make adjustments for injuries. If memory serves me, Mandy missed a bunch of the Ohio State game with back spasms (not that it would have helped) and some of the NAU game. That's 2 of our 3 losses with our best player not at 100%.
They use injuries if thier out then thier not the same. ALso they don`t go game by game saying they were 50% or whatever. Its when you have some losses and your key players are out an extended amount of time. Lets go down to an 11 seed so we can avoid top 10 teams and go to the sweeeet 16
84GRIZ said:
Evizzerate
Well-known member
selection show - 3 brackets down...No Montana