GrizBiz, please explain

[UMclassof2002]

Did the Mariners just draft a middle relief pitcher with their 1st round (#5 overall) pick? Was this really the most pressing concern that needed to be addressed in the first round?

 

[WyomingGrizFan]

Outside of the outfield (LF, CF & RF) & the infield (3B, SS, 2B & 1B; DH), starting pitchers & a closer. You do have a good catcher there. Might just as well pick a middle relief pitcher.

Go Yankees!!!


Besides, you never know when ya might need one.

 

[WyomingGrizFan]

Besides, I hear his stock is slightly rising; he may be one of those 'middle relief pitchers' that comes in at the second out of the first inning & pitches into the ninth; those are hard to find.

 

[GrizBiz]

Morrow has both started and relieved in college. He will have every opportunity to stick as a starter and he did start this year at Cal. According to everything that I've read, he has the best arm in the draft. Picture perfect mechanics, 94-98 MPH fastball that he can maintain into the late innings, nasty splitter and a so-so changeup. If the changeup becomes an average pitch, he starts in the majors. If not, he probably closes. He's basically JJ Putz right now with the upside of Hardin.

Overall, not a bad pick. Morrow was a top six pick on every draft board that I saw and nobody drafts a guy that high with the intention of putting him in the pen. He was the safest guy on the board and there is something to be said for taking the safe pick that high. I would have taken Lincecum but I understand why they didn't. Miller just flat out didn't want to pitch in Seattle so there was really no sense in drafting him. I'll bet the Tigers won't be able to sign him and he'll sit out for a year or go back to college.

I like the second round pick, too. Most draft boards that I saw had him going at the end of the first round, so they got a little bit of a value there. He's a high school pitcher, though, so he's got a long 4-5 year climb ahead of him.

After that, things got weird. Fontaine went almost exclusively after big pitchers. It was like every damn pick was another 6'7", 240 lb power pitcher. I guess the strategy was to stock the system with a bunch of power arms and hope that one or two turn out to be good. The rate of success for guys picked in rounds 2-6 is bad anyway, so maybe it will work. I read that only 10% of guys picked in rounds 2-6 ever play in the big leagues. Only 50% of the first rounders will ever even make it. Ouch.

One thing to remember with the draft - in MLB you don't draft for today. It's not the NFL or NBA where your draft picks make an early impact. College trained first rounders are still a year or two away from the bigs in most cases. The rest of your picks are 3-6 years out. Depending on how fast they can get Morrow signed, he will probably be assigned to high-A ball. If he lights that league up - and he should - he should get promoted to AA for four starts or so. Then in 2007, he starts at AA and moves up to AAA after six or eight starts. Maybe he gets a major league start or three at the end of 2007 and has a chance to earn a spot in the rotation in 2008. That's if everything goes right.

 

[GrizBiz]

Here are a couple of rundowns on Morrow from the prospect experts at SportSpot:


First, a guy that goes by the handle g_moneyball:

1 – Brandon Morrow, RHP
6’3”, 190 lbs, 7/26/84.
7-4, 2.05 ERA in 96.2 IP, 72 hits, 34 runs (22 ER), 97K/39BB, .211 BAA, 6 wild pitches and 9 hit batters.

Video Impressions: The dude is smooth as silk on the mound, throws 97 without breathing hard and has some great cut on his breakers.

Other Impressions: I’d expect better control numbers from a guy with his motion, but he’s still a work in progress. For everybody who thinks Morrow’s topped out while Scherzer and Miller and Lincecum still have growth left, I scoff at you. Morrow has as much growth left in his game as either of those guys do, but his mechanics may give him an edge in both health and time required to take the next leap forward.

As for his diabetes and asthma issues…those are things that jocks scoff at until a Jackie Joyner or an Adam Morrison mops the floor with you. It’s been harder for them to do what they are driven to do as athletes, so they’ve needed better focus, better discipline, to be stronger and smarter and meaner and more driven than you.

It isn't always that way, but I don’t consider those things a minus at all, unless his ability to manage his diabetes suddenly vanishes. He’s not the pick I would have chosen, but at the moment I’m satisfied we got a top-5 pick with our #5 slot, so why quibble?

As long as we don’t bullpen him, anyway…

Then his compadre JfromSeattle:

1. Brandon Morrow, RHP, R-R, 6-3, 190, 21, University of California, Rohnert Park, CA

I guess I have to come to terms with the idea that Miller’s demands were unreasonable and likely to draw out a long time, and that they were concerned with Lincecum’s durability and command, so Morrow was the top guy still available on their board. I’ve listened to the conference call now, and while it’s strikingly different from the leader personality you had in Clement from last year, I did come away feeling better about a few things that concerned me.

For one, his poor results from earlier in his college career were the result of a loss of command from his jump in velocity. He responded to it by working out more to strengthen his shoulder to where he didn’t get that same soreness after pitching, and I think that speaks well to his conditioning habits, which are sometimes a concern with players. The other was his inconsistent secondary stuff, which he said he fixed by committing to the slider as his breaking pitch midseason, instead of trying to switch between a few different pitches. Both those factors help him in the long run.

I’m not an expert on pitching motions or anything, but watching the video, his motion looks good, consistent, and repeatable, though he does show the ball pretty early. He doesn’t jerk his head during delivery or seem to loss his balance at any point, though sometimes his momentum seems to carry him a bit farther down the mound than you’d like. It’s a very centered motion, and should prove to be a healthy one.

 

[UMclassof2002]

Good sum - thx

 

[GrizBiz]

FYI - DrDetecto has a nice POTD on the M's second round pick Chris Tilleman. High school pitchers are risky as hell but he sounds like a good one.


http://detectovision.com/?p=696