Griz only in 15-seed position (based on RPI)

[PolskiNorsk]

If you look at the 1st-place teams in the other mid-major conferences, the Griz (#98) are only ninth from the bottom according to Sunday's RPI rankings. This kind of surprises me since the non-conference schedule looks pretty good on paper, though Nevada (#210) and Utah (#122) are both uncharacteristically struggling this year, and Oregon State's RPI (#230) is worse than most of the Big Sky. On the plus side, UCLA (#49) is looking better every week, and might already be in the conversation for an at-large berth. For those wondering, current Big Sky leader Northern Colorado is ranked 130th, which would make them one of the 16-seeds that avoids a play-in game.

Projected 14-seeds:
73 Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
80 Charleston (Southern)
83 Bucknell (Patriot League)
85 Iona (MAAC)

Projected 15-seeds:
96 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
98 Montana (Big Sky)
107 Ball State (MAC)*
110 Hampton (MEAC)

Projected 16-seeds:
119 Long Beach State (Big West)
133 Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)

Projected 16/17-seeds:
141 Long Island (Northeast)*
156 Maine (America East)*
161 Nicholls State (Southland)
180 Texas Southern (SWAC)*

* - First place in conference standings, but not the highest-ranked

Source: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

 

[HorribilisFanatic]

If you look at the 1st-place teams in the other mid-major conferences, the Griz (#98) are only ninth from the bottom according to Sunday's RPI rankings. This kind of surprises me since the non-conference schedule looks pretty good on paper, though Nevada (#210) and Utah (#122) are both uncharacteristically struggling this year, and Oregon State's RPI (#230) is worse than most of the Big Sky. On the plus side, UCLA (#49) is looking better every week, and might already be in the conversation for an at-large berth. For those wondering, current Big Sky leader Northern Colorado is ranked 130th, which would make them one of the 16-seeds that avoids a play-in game.

Projected 14-seeds:
73 Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
80 Charleston (Southern)
83 Bucknell (Patriot League)
85 Iona (MAAC)

Projected 15-seeds:
96 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
98 Montana (Big Sky)
107 Ball State (MAC)*
110 Hampton (MEAC)

Projected 16-seeds:
119 Long Beach State (Big West)
133 Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)

Projected 16/17-seeds:
141 Long Island (Northeast)*
156 Maine (America East)*
161 Nicholls State (Southland)
180 Texas Southern (SWAC)*

* - First place in conference standings, but not the highest-ranked

Source: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

There are a new format for the tourney this year so there are multiple play-in games.

"On July 12, the NCAA announced the revamped format for the 2011 tournament:

The four opening-round games, now officially called the First Four, will feature four games with two of the games going to the last four at-large teams and the other two games going to the teams seeded 65 through 68. The games will be played on the Tuesday and Wednesday following Selection Sunday and will be televised on truTV. The games will be held at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio, which had been the site for previous opening round games. In future years, new sites may be used for the First Four.

The rounds previously known as the First and Second Rounds will now be the Second and Third Rounds."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

 

[PolskiNorsk]

There are a new format for the tourney this year so there are multiple play-in games.

"On July 12, the NCAA announced the revamped format for the 2011 tournament:

The four opening-round games, now officially called the First Four, will feature four games with two of the games going to the last four at-large teams and the other two games going to the teams seeded 65 through 68. The games will be played on the Tuesday and Wednesday following Selection Sunday and will be televised on truTV. The games will be held at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio, which had been the site for previous opening round games. In future years, new sites may be used for the First Four.

The rounds previously known as the First and Second Rounds will now be the Second and Third Rounds."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

I took all of that into account, hence two 16-seeds that get to start in the round of 64, and the four bottom AQs that have to start a round earlier.

 

[Zootown Rox]

Our Conference RPI is really hurting us. With Northern Colorado having a horrid nonconference record, then turning around and beating everyone in conference drags everyone down - plus the teams that had decent Non-conference records are struggling in conference, again dragging everyone down. The Griz are the only team that is helping the conferences overall RPI, but obviously that doesn't help the Griz's RPI. :|

 

[dub-foncy]

 

[GrizLA]

Our Conference RPI is really hurting us. With Northern Colorado having a horrid nonconference record, then turning around and beating everyone in conference drags everyone down - plus the teams that had decent Non-conference records are struggling in conference, again dragging everyone down. The Griz are the only team that is helping the conferences overall RPI, but obviously that doesn't help the Griz's RPI. :|

It clearly shows the value of making free throws...there are 3 losses by the Griz that would not have happened had they made free throws and two of those teams are rated higher than the Griz....As it stands now, I think UM as a 15 seed might be in a good position to pull a major upset....this is a very good team whose weaknesses are mostly inconsistency.....sometimes, below the radar can be a good thing...

 

[AllWeatherFan]

I don't care a bit about RPI or tournament seeding. You can't control either one, so why worry? I care way more about winning games and getting into the tournament. And once you're in, you might as well play the best team out there.

 

[Potomac Griz]

Just in case anyone was wondering, here are the RPI ratings for the Big Sky teams and future Big Sky teams.

This from "realtimerpi.com". Good wins are wins over teams in the top 100. Bad losses are losses against teams not in the top 100 (just going by what that site says).

The Griz, UNC, and MSU are the only 3 teams with quality wins according to that site. UNC's quality win was over the Griz (#98). MSU's was over San Francisco (#96). The Griz's was over UCLA (#43). Not saying I agree with their good win and bad loss thing, but figured I'd just post it in case anyone was curious.

--

98 - Montana - Good Wins - @UCLA (#43). Bad Losses - @Nevada (#211), @Utah (#125), @UNC (#134).

134 - Northern Colorado - Good Wins - Montana (#98). Bad Losses - @Santa Clara (#172), @Denver (#236), @LA Monroe (#329).

180 - Montana State - Good Wins - San Francisco (#96). Bad Losses - @Hawaii (#203), @Seattle (#292), @Ill. St (#246), @UC-R (#234), @N. Colo (#134).

192 - Weber State - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - @Utah (#125), @AZ St (#132), @Tulsa (#112), @Mont St (#180), @Port St (#250), @N. Colo (#134).

199 - Northern Arizona - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - @Creighton (#133), @Mont St. (#180), @Weber St. (#192), @Eastern Wash (#325).

250 - Portland State - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - 7 of them.

289 - Idaho State - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - 9 of them.

325 - Eastern Washington - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - 11 of them.

342 - Sacramento State - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - 13 of them.

** 288 - Southern Utah - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - 8 of them.

** 305 - North Dakota - Good Wins - None. Bad Losses - 9 of them.

 

[BelierPeaux]

Perhaps it's not technically a good win, but beating Oregon St. certainly didn't hurt us.

 

[GrizLA]

Perhaps it's not technically a good win, but beating Oregon St. certainly didn't hurt us.

Beating Portland and USF, as UM should have, would have meant much, much more...

 

[EverettGriz]

Perhaps it's not technically a good win, but beating Oregon St. certainly didn't hurt us.

Beating Portland and USF, as UM should have, would have meant much, much more...

Yes, those are the two games that "got away" that we'd love to have back, and we all knew it was soon as they were over. But I think it's way too early to start projecting seeds based on RPIs (although admittedly I find it a fascinating discussion topic and thank Polsk for the research).


But a couple things to consider:

1. Many of those conferences referenced have lower RPIs than the BSC, so as they continue to play games, they'll continue to fall further in the RPI standings.

2. RPI isn't the only thing the committee uses to seed. Consider 2006 when the Griz were a 12 seed. Their RPI wouldn't have justified a 12 (LK was expecting a 14), but they had a lot of other things going for them: good record, a couple big wins, etc. And as I recall, that team lost 4 conference games. I think that if the Griz can get out of conference with only 1 or 2 additional losses, another 12 seed is not out of the question, and a 13 is probably a given.

 

[mtgrizrule]

I meant this to go here, not the other thread.

If the GRIZ go no worse than 13-3 in conference play, and win the conference tournament. I honestly see them as a 13 or 14 seed. Providing we have no bad losses in conference play. Winning on the road in a bracket buster game would help their cause, depending on opponent. A 12 seed would be possible if win the conference, tournament, and bracket buster.

What if we win out? That is a tough call.

Conference play is tough, I see 2 possible losses through conference play. UNC or MSU, and the Weber State/NAU road trip will be a tough tiresome one. Thankfully, we are deeper now, and we get Jamar back too.

 

[stubbins]

Perhaps it's not technically a good win, but beating Oregon St. certainly didn't hurt us.

Beating Portland and USF, as UM should have, would have meant much, much more...

Yes, those are the two games that "got away" that we'd love to have back, and we all knew it was soon as they were over. But I think it's way too early to start projecting seeds based on RPIs (although admittedly I find it a fascinating discussion topic and thank Polsk for the research).


But a couple things to consider:

1. Many of those conferences referenced have lower RPIs than the BSC, so as they continue to play games, they'll continue to fall further in the RPI standings.

2. RPI isn't the only thing the committee uses to seed. Consider 2006 when the Griz were a 12 seed. Their RPI wouldn't have justified a 12 (LK was expecting a 14), but they had a lot of other things going for them: good record, a couple big wins, etc. And as I recall, that team lost 4 conference games. I think that if the Griz can get out of conference with only 1 or 2 additional losses, another 12 seed is not out of the question, and a 13 is probably a given.

The biggest factor, IMO, to the high seed in 2006 was the showing in 2005. If the griz win out and couple that with the showing last year, the griz will get a 13 or higher.

 

[GrizIzDaShiz]

If you look at the 1st-place teams in the other mid-major conferences, the Griz (#98) are only ninth from the bottom according to Sunday's RPI rankings. This kind of surprises me since the non-conference schedule looks pretty good on paper, though Nevada (#210) and Utah (#122) are both uncharacteristically struggling this year, and Oregon State's RPI (#230) is worse than most of the Big Sky. On the plus side, UCLA (#49) is looking better every week, and might already be in the conversation for an at-large berth. For those wondering, current Big Sky leader Northern Colorado is ranked 130th, which would make them one of the 16-seeds that avoids a play-in game.

Projected 14-seeds:
73 Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
80 Charleston (Southern)
83 Bucknell (Patriot League)
85 Iona (MAAC)

Projected 15-seeds:
96 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
98 Montana (Big Sky)
107 Ball State (MAC)*
110 Hampton (MEAC)

Projected 16-seeds:
119 Long Beach State (Big West)
133 Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)

Projected 16/17-seeds:
141 Long Island (Northeast)*
156 Maine (America East)*
161 Nicholls State (Southland)
180 Texas Southern (SWAC)*

* - First place in conference standings, but not the highest-ranked

Source: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

if we get it in we're dangerous wherever they seed us. we've got a legit center who will give major programs problems in the post, a legit point guard running the show, and good depth.

Hey, maybe we'll be the first 16 to upset a 1

 

[grizpack]

Why should we expect to be any higher at this point? We are in a mid-major conference that has won a total of 2 games in the last 20 years in the tournament.

Oh yeah. We aren't even in first place in our own conference.

I think we will make a good showing if we get to the tournament, but to expect anything more than where we are at this time is ridiculous.

 

[stubbins]

sixteen seeds are usually reserved for teams that did not have good years but win the aq. If the griz win the tourney, they will not be a sixteen seed.

 

[PolskiNorsk]

Since not every favorite is going to win their conference tournament, we might be able to get up to a 14 or 13 without having to improve our RPI.

 

[Jaredkuehn]

Interesting stats Polski. I would be intrested to know how last years tourney appeareance would affect this years seed. (If) the Griz make the tournament this year, they are on track for a better conference and overall record than last year. I feel like the selection committee would give the Griz some love like they did in 2006. Obviously there are a lot of other factors and unknowns at this point...and a lot of games yet to be played.

On that note I'm not usually a big fan of hosting the Big Sky tournament, the host teams have historically had marginal success at best. But with this years team gaining some traction with fans, I think it would be great for the program if they could win the regular season championship this year and host the tournament.

 

[Potomac Griz]

Being in the tournament last year will help the Griz seeding. We saw it in 2005-2006 when the previous year the Griz put up a good fight as a 16 seed against 1 seed. The next year the Griz RPI probably wasn't good enough for a #12 (I remember expecting maybe a 14) but we got a 12 seed & beat Nevada in the first round.

Recent success and close games in the tournament will help the Griz seeding too I think (if we make it). If the Griz do make it this year, that would be 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Being in the tournament 4 times out of the last 7 years, and in the 3 previous trips either winning or putting up a good fight will really help.

If the Griz end up only dropping 1 or 2 more games in conference, and end up winning the Big Sky tourney (I know, these are all big ifs) I could realistically see them getting a 12 seed again or 13, based on recent performance in the tournament, and how often we've been in the tournament the past 7 years.

Of course...who knows how the rest of the season is going to go. Basketball is much different than football in that there are no gimme games at the Div1 level An off night and you could lose to anyone. A great night and you could beat anyone.