IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With so many ranked teams idle, and only three losses among those that did play, I considered just skipping a set of guesses this week. However, I decided the three losses were pretty important, with some strong and highly arguable possible outcomes. And isn’t that what we do here ... argue? 
Rank, School, (Record), [Previous]
1 Jacksonville State (3-1) [1]
2 Coastal Carolina (4-0) [2]
3 North Dakota State (2-1) [3]
4 Illinois State (2-1) [4]
5 South Dakota State (3-0) [6]
6 Northern Iowa (2-1) [7]
7 James Madison (4-0) [9]
8 Chattanooga (3-1) [8]
9 Eastern Washington (2-2) [11]
10 Sam Houston State (1-2) [12]
11 Youngstown State (2-1) [13]
12 Villanova (2-2) [5]
13 Montana (2-2) [14]
14 Montana State (2-1) [15]
15 Liberty (2-2) [10]
16 Fordham (3-1) [16]
17 Portland State (3-0) [17]
18 Eastern Kentucky (2-1) [18]
19 Richmond (2-1) [19]
20 New Hampshire (2-2) [21]
21 Indiana State (2-1) [22]
22 Southeastern Louisiana (2-1) [23]
23 Harvard (2-0) [24]
24 McNeese State (3-0) [25]
25 William & Mary (2-1) [NR]
NR Cal Poly (1-3) [20]
The loss by #5 Villanova will probably have the greatest impact on the next poll. To lose at home to an opponent that has not managed a win against them in over 100 years is almost certain to catch the pollsters attention -- in a bad way. Trouble is, it reinforces the perception that ‘Nova is just another so-so team without their stud QB, Robertson. My “formula” led me to drop them seven places in my guessed poll, and even more than that would not surprise me.
FWIW: I gave #9 JMU an extra nudge up for their win on the road over an FBS opponent. However, SMU is hardly a powerhouse team, so I don’t expect the pollsters to give them much more than that. Still, a move up another spot would not surprise me
#10 Liberty (2-2) lost by over thirty points to an unranked team. They were on the road, but getting thumped 34-13 is certain to hurt. The usual formula is for a drop of 4-6 spots after a bad loss. I might have only gone down four, except that SIU was not just unranked ... it did not get any votes at all in the last FCS STATS poll. That leads to a result that will have lots of people wondering. The two losses in the top-10 serve to nudge the Griz up by one, so Liberty would end up below them in the next poll. I can hear you already: “That’s not right! Liberty beat the Griz, so they should stay ahead of them!”
Well, that’s not how the collective minds (such as they are) of the pollsters seem to work.
Cal Poly, of course, lost on the road to a ranked team. The final score was not that close, but it wasn’t a blow-out either. A drop of about 5 spots seemed reasonable, but then you have to factor in that 1-3 record. I’m betting they move out of the top-25. If that happens, they will be replaced by William & Mary (2-1), which had a convincing win against Stony Brook ... and were just out of the top-25 in the last poll.
Those are my guesses, and I’m sticking to them.
(Or at least until I change my mind. :lol: )
Rank, School, (Record), [Previous]
1 Jacksonville State (3-1) [1]
2 Coastal Carolina (4-0) [2]
3 North Dakota State (2-1) [3]
4 Illinois State (2-1) [4]
5 South Dakota State (3-0) [6]
6 Northern Iowa (2-1) [7]
7 James Madison (4-0) [9]
8 Chattanooga (3-1) [8]
9 Eastern Washington (2-2) [11]
10 Sam Houston State (1-2) [12]
11 Youngstown State (2-1) [13]
12 Villanova (2-2) [5]
13 Montana (2-2) [14]
14 Montana State (2-1) [15]
15 Liberty (2-2) [10]
16 Fordham (3-1) [16]
17 Portland State (3-0) [17]
18 Eastern Kentucky (2-1) [18]
19 Richmond (2-1) [19]
20 New Hampshire (2-2) [21]
21 Indiana State (2-1) [22]
22 Southeastern Louisiana (2-1) [23]
23 Harvard (2-0) [24]
24 McNeese State (3-0) [25]
25 William & Mary (2-1) [NR]
NR Cal Poly (1-3) [20]
The loss by #5 Villanova will probably have the greatest impact on the next poll. To lose at home to an opponent that has not managed a win against them in over 100 years is almost certain to catch the pollsters attention -- in a bad way. Trouble is, it reinforces the perception that ‘Nova is just another so-so team without their stud QB, Robertson. My “formula” led me to drop them seven places in my guessed poll, and even more than that would not surprise me.
FWIW: I gave #9 JMU an extra nudge up for their win on the road over an FBS opponent. However, SMU is hardly a powerhouse team, so I don’t expect the pollsters to give them much more than that. Still, a move up another spot would not surprise me
#10 Liberty (2-2) lost by over thirty points to an unranked team. They were on the road, but getting thumped 34-13 is certain to hurt. The usual formula is for a drop of 4-6 spots after a bad loss. I might have only gone down four, except that SIU was not just unranked ... it did not get any votes at all in the last FCS STATS poll. That leads to a result that will have lots of people wondering. The two losses in the top-10 serve to nudge the Griz up by one, so Liberty would end up below them in the next poll. I can hear you already: “That’s not right! Liberty beat the Griz, so they should stay ahead of them!”
Well, that’s not how the collective minds (such as they are) of the pollsters seem to work.Cal Poly, of course, lost on the road to a ranked team. The final score was not that close, but it wasn’t a blow-out either. A drop of about 5 spots seemed reasonable, but then you have to factor in that 1-3 record. I’m betting they move out of the top-25. If that happens, they will be replaced by William & Mary (2-1), which had a convincing win against Stony Brook ... and were just out of the top-25 in the last poll.
Those are my guesses, and I’m sticking to them.
(Or at least until I change my mind. :lol: )
