IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Another week with significant results … including an upset over FBS Stanford. So I decided to give it another go. Actually, my too-early projections for last week did all right. Over three quarters of my guesses were on the nose or pretty close. But my two main misses were real stinkeroos: I thought the pollsters would punish Samford for their loss to an unranked FCS opponent, and they did. But where I dropped the Bulldogs seven spots, the pollsters crushed them down ten. On the flip side, they rewarded Southern Illinois for their win over a (weak) FBS Northern Illinois. But where I bumped the Salukis up four spots, the pollsters moved them a whopping nine spots. With yet more FCS-FCS games this week, the next poll should be interesting.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 South Dakota State (3-0) [1]
#2 North Dakota State (3-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (2-1) [3]
#4 William & Mary (3-0) [4]
#5 Sacramento State (3-0) [8]
#6 Holy Cross (2-1) [6]
#7 Furman (2-1) [7]
#8 Idaho (2-1) [5]
#9 Incarnate Word (2-1) [10]
#10 New Hampshire (2-1) [11]
#11 Weber State (2-1) [9]
#12 Montana (3-0) [12]
#13 So. Illinois (3-0) [15]
#14 UC Davis (2-1) [16]
#15 Mercer (2-1) [20]
#16 Rhode Island (2-1) [21]
#17 SE Missouri State (1-2) [13]
#18 North Dakota (2-1) [14]
#19 Delaware (2-1) [22]
#20 Florida A&M (2-1) [23]
#21 Samford (1-2) [18]
#22 NC Central (2-1) [17]
#23 Youngstown State (2-1) [25]
#24 UT Martin (2-1) NR
#25 Northern Iowa (1-2) NR
NR SE Louisiana (0-3) [19]
NR Villanova (2-1) [24]
As usual, our main interest is what the pollsters do for the Griz, which squeaked out a win over a D-II opponent (a strong one, but still … ) However, that answer depends upon what happened around them. And that starts with the upset of FBS Stanford by Sac State. The pollsters surprised me last week by how much they jumped Southern Illinois after their upset of a (weak) FBS opponent. I do not see that happening this week, although Stanford has been crap for awhile now. Still, W&M did not exactly dominate against unranked Charleston Southern, so I could see one spot higher for the Hornets.
As I mentioned last week, I generally equate a loss to an FBS opponent to a loss to a ranked FCS team … unless it’s a complete blowout. Idaho hung with California, and actually led at the half, so I don’t see a big drop for them. In fact, they might stay one higher since Furman didn’t look impressive against Kennesaw State.
My next temptation was to drop Weber one more spot (moving the Griz up), but Utah is ranked pretty high in the FBS. Thus, I cut the Weebs some slack, even though the Utes dominated in that game. Anyway, my guess says the pollsters will leave the Griz about the same … with one slight worry.
The slight doubt involves Southern Illinois, which went on the road and beat higher-ranked (#13) SE Missouri State. That gives them a (3-0) record, just like the Griz. Last week, the pollsters gave the Salukis a huge jump. Could they do that again? Possibly, but SIU won by only one point, on a desperation score right at the end. So … I think not.
The rest of the drops are pretty standard, given my rules of thumb. That includes SE Louisiana, which got upset by unranked Eastern Washington. Ranked #19, the Lions might have survived the loss, but it left them with an (0-3) record. Pretty sure the pollsters will bomb them out of the top-25. Finally, since Villanova got pummeled by their FBS opponent, I expect the pollsters to drop them out too.
That left two spots open. The top “Others” vote getters from last week both lost, so I was left with three choices, one being Western Carolina. But I couldn’t ignore UT Martin, which obliterated Houston Christian (66-7), and Northern Iowa, which went into Pokie and thumped the Bengals 41-17. (And it wasn’t that close … ISU had virtually no running game.)
Lord knows how these guesses will do, with (still) so few games and so many FBS money games. But … I can hope.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 South Dakota State (3-0) [1]
#2 North Dakota State (3-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (2-1) [3]
#4 William & Mary (3-0) [4]
#5 Sacramento State (3-0) [8]
#6 Holy Cross (2-1) [6]
#7 Furman (2-1) [7]
#8 Idaho (2-1) [5]
#9 Incarnate Word (2-1) [10]
#10 New Hampshire (2-1) [11]
#11 Weber State (2-1) [9]
#12 Montana (3-0) [12]
#13 So. Illinois (3-0) [15]
#14 UC Davis (2-1) [16]
#15 Mercer (2-1) [20]
#16 Rhode Island (2-1) [21]
#17 SE Missouri State (1-2) [13]
#18 North Dakota (2-1) [14]
#19 Delaware (2-1) [22]
#20 Florida A&M (2-1) [23]
#21 Samford (1-2) [18]
#22 NC Central (2-1) [17]
#23 Youngstown State (2-1) [25]
#24 UT Martin (2-1) NR
#25 Northern Iowa (1-2) NR
NR SE Louisiana (0-3) [19]
NR Villanova (2-1) [24]
As usual, our main interest is what the pollsters do for the Griz, which squeaked out a win over a D-II opponent (a strong one, but still … ) However, that answer depends upon what happened around them. And that starts with the upset of FBS Stanford by Sac State. The pollsters surprised me last week by how much they jumped Southern Illinois after their upset of a (weak) FBS opponent. I do not see that happening this week, although Stanford has been crap for awhile now. Still, W&M did not exactly dominate against unranked Charleston Southern, so I could see one spot higher for the Hornets.
As I mentioned last week, I generally equate a loss to an FBS opponent to a loss to a ranked FCS team … unless it’s a complete blowout. Idaho hung with California, and actually led at the half, so I don’t see a big drop for them. In fact, they might stay one higher since Furman didn’t look impressive against Kennesaw State.
My next temptation was to drop Weber one more spot (moving the Griz up), but Utah is ranked pretty high in the FBS. Thus, I cut the Weebs some slack, even though the Utes dominated in that game. Anyway, my guess says the pollsters will leave the Griz about the same … with one slight worry.
The slight doubt involves Southern Illinois, which went on the road and beat higher-ranked (#13) SE Missouri State. That gives them a (3-0) record, just like the Griz. Last week, the pollsters gave the Salukis a huge jump. Could they do that again? Possibly, but SIU won by only one point, on a desperation score right at the end. So … I think not.
The rest of the drops are pretty standard, given my rules of thumb. That includes SE Louisiana, which got upset by unranked Eastern Washington. Ranked #19, the Lions might have survived the loss, but it left them with an (0-3) record. Pretty sure the pollsters will bomb them out of the top-25. Finally, since Villanova got pummeled by their FBS opponent, I expect the pollsters to drop them out too.
That left two spots open. The top “Others” vote getters from last week both lost, so I was left with three choices, one being Western Carolina. But I couldn’t ignore UT Martin, which obliterated Houston Christian (66-7), and Northern Iowa, which went into Pokie and thumped the Bengals 41-17. (And it wasn’t that close … ISU had virtually no running game.)
Lord knows how these guesses will do, with (still) so few games and so many FBS money games. But … I can hope.
