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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Sept 13, 2015)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
We all know that the polls should be taken with a grain of salt, or maybe a whole shaker full ... especially this early in the season. But hey, it’s something to amuse ourselves while we wait for the next Griz game.

New
Guess, Team Name, (Record), [Current Ranking]
1 Sam Houston State (0-1) [ 1 ]
2 North Dakota State (1-1) [ 2 ]
3 Coastal Carolina (2-0) [ 3 ]
4 Illinois State (1-1) [ 4 ]
5 Jacksonville State (1-1) [ 5 ]
6 Villanova (1-1) [ 6 ]
7 Montana (1-1) [ 8 ]
8 South Dakota State (2-0) [ 9 ]
9 Chattanooga (1-1) [ 10 ]
10 New Hampshire (1-1) [ 12 ]
11 Eastern Washington (0-2) [ 7 ]
12 Montana State (1-0) [ 11 ]
13 James Madison (2-0) [ 13 ]
14 UNI (1-1) [ 14 ]
15 Youngstown State (1-1) [ 17 ]
16 Southeastern Louisiana (2-0) [ 20 ]
17 Liberty (1-1) [ 15 ]
18 Richmond (1-1) [ 22 ]
19 Fordham (1-1) [ 16 ]
20 Portland State (2-0) [ 24 ]
21 Cal Poly (1-1) [ 18 ]
22 Eastern Kentucky (1-1) [ 19 ]
23 Indiana State (1-1) [ 21 ]
24 McNeese State (1-0) [ NR ]
25 Harvard (0-0) [ 25 ]

NR Idaho State (1-1) [ 23 ]

Four of the losses among ranked teams came to FBS opponents, so it is a bit harder to decide how the pollsters will treat that. Of course, with Jacksonville State taking Auburn into overtime, that loss should not hurt them at all.

Normally, a close road loss to a ranked team would not hurt that much, but I believe that 0-2 record for EWU will drop them out of the top-ten. (But it would not shock me to see them hang on at #10.)
I do not see much change (±1) in the next block from 11-15, simply because there’s no place for anyone to move much. Then we get into a block of losses. Liberty’s fairly bad loss at West Virginia (could have been worse) might drop them a bit more than I’m guessing, but I think couple spots seems about right. Same with Fordham, since they only lost by a TD to the #6 team. And it’s pretty much the same for the other losing teams ... except ISU. Losing at home by 20 points cannot be good, so I think they will drop out of the top-25.

Had NAU played an actual opponent, instead of an NAIA cupcake, they could have taken ISU’s place. However, I think the new member will be McNeese.
 
Looks pretty good to me. I'd swap Coastal and SHSU. Also, NDSU and the Griz should be much closer together in the poll, Cal Poly higher. But in four weeks we'll have a better sense.
 
Alaska Griz said:
Looks pretty good to me. I'd swap Coastal and SHSU. Also, NDSU and the Griz should be much closer together in the poll, Cal Poly higher. But in four weeks we'll have a better sense.
I agree with all your points.

I suspect that if SHSU and CC faced off, Coastal would win. About NDSU and the Griz being closer in ranking: How many times have we seen a team that lost the head--to-head still ranked higher? Way too many times. And Cal Poly should be higher but, somehow, they just do not get any respect from the pollsters.

All that being said, the "guesses" part of this exercise is not about my personal rankings ... it's about guessing what the people who vote on the rankings are going to do. And, God knows, that often makes not much [no?] sense. :lol:
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Alaska Griz said:
Looks pretty good to me. I'd swap Coastal and SHSU. Also, NDSU and the Griz should be much closer together in the poll, Cal Poly higher. But in four weeks we'll have a better sense.
I agree with all your points.

I suspect that if SHSU and CC faced off, Coastal would win. About NDSU and the Griz being closer in ranking: How many times have we seen a team that lost the head--to-head still ranked higher? Way too many times. And Cal Poly should be higher but, somehow, they just do not get any respect from the pollsters.

All that being said, the "guesses" part of this exercise is not about my personal rankings ... it's about guessing what the people who vote on the rankings are going to do. And, God knows, that often makes not much [no?] sense. :lol:


Part of Cal-polys problem is because they play night games on the West coast... Most of the so alled smucks back east are long asleep before Cal-poly plays. Their first three game all start/ed 9PM EST or later...
 
Also, I bet Jacksonville St almost beating of Auburn moves them up to #3 behind Coastal Carolina and ND State.

My guess at the Top 10
1. Coastal Carolina
2. ND State
3. Jacksonville St.
4. Villanova
5. Sam Houston
6. Ill state
7. Montana
8. msu
9. South Dakota St
10. James Madison
 
Paytonlives said:
Also, I bet Jacksonville St almost beating of Auburn moves them up to #3 behind Coastal Carolina and ND State.

My guess at the Top 10
1. Coastal Carolina
2. ND State
3. Jacksonville St.
4. Villanova
5. Sam Houston
6. Ill state
7. Montana
8. msu
9. South Dakota St
10. James Madison
Well, as the saying goes: "Your guess is as good as mine." :lol:

But your rankings assumes that the pollsters will be willing to completely re-arrange their lists now that we have some actually game results. It would be nice, and better for the system, if they did. But that is probably giving them too much credit.

Also, your guess drops Illinois State down two spots. Yet I-State did what they were supposed to do -- kick butt on a a crappy opponent (punched out Morgan State 67-14). I've almost never seen the pollsters "punish" a high-ranked team when that happened. Last but not least: What happened that you think the kitties are going to move up three spots? They were idle, and only two teams ahead of them lost -- and one of those was Jacksonville State and its near-upset.
 
first11 said:
grizcountry420 said:
I think at this point SDSU should be ahead of both Montana and MSU.
Agreed!
Well, they were ahead of MSU in the last poll and will surely stay ahead of them in the next one. And with their shellacking of Southern Utah I could easily see them move ahead of the Griz, and maybe even Villanova. But my "formula" -- based on past pollster behavior -- does not have that happening. Going to be very interesting to see how it comes out.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
first11 said:
grizcountry420 said:
I think at this point SDSU should be ahead of both Montana and MSU.
Agreed!
Well, they were ahead of MSU in the last poll and will surely stay ahead of them in the next one. And with their shellacking of Southern Utah I could easily see them move ahead of the Griz, and maybe even Villanova. But my "formula" -- based on past pollster behavior -- does not have that happening. Going to be very interesting to see how it comes out.

Sdsu continues to impress, bison will have their hands full with them. Portland state is also a team to watch.
 
first11 said:
IdaGriz01 said:
first11 said:
grizcountry420 said:
I think at this point SDSU should be ahead of both Montana and MSU.
Agreed!
Well, they were ahead of MSU in the last poll and will surely stay ahead of them in the next one. And with their shellacking of Southern Utah I could easily see them move ahead of the Griz, and maybe even Villanova. But my "formula" -- based on past pollster behavior -- does not have that happening. Going to be very interesting to see how it comes out.

Sdsu continues to impress, bison will have their hands full with them. Portland state is also a team to watch.
Yep, PSU has really come out of nowhere this year. I do not recall anyone predicting it before the season started. Be interesting to see if they can sustain it.
 
If tomorrow, NAU are still just out of the top 25-- and next week,.. pull the Slo Stang against UofA--
keeping it close for much of the match,. yet falling to southern Arizona.
We might still just be outside of the top 25.

However two weeks from now if we play the Griz close yet can't come away with a win------
With,, New Mexico Highlands being a top 10 NAIA team, NAU could still scrap to be just outside the top 25!

However after the Griz. We have the MSU Bobcats at home.
And while it is unusual for a Big Sky north team to travel to a D2 school---if we play the bobcats close, as has generally been the case at home.
We'll probably be ranked just inside the 'regular season big sky conference, play, during the regular season after pre-season polls'!!
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Paytonlives said:
Also, I bet Jacksonville St almost beating of Auburn moves them up to #3 behind Coastal Carolina and ND State.

My guess at the Top 10
1. Coastal Carolina
2. ND State
3. Jacksonville St.
4. Villanova
5. Sam Houston
6. Ill state
7. Montana
8. msu
9. South Dakota St
10. James Madison
Well, as the saying goes: "Your guess is as good as mine." :lol:

But your rankings assumes that the pollsters will be willing to completely re-arrange their lists now that we have some actually game results. It would be nice, and better for the system, if they did. But that is probably giving them too much credit.

Also, your guess drops Illinois State down two spots. Yet I-State did what they were supposed to do -- kick butt on a a crappy opponent (punched out Morgan State 67-14). I've almost never seen the pollsters "punish" a high-ranked team when that happened. Last but not least: What happened that you think the kitties are going to move up three spots? They were idle, and only two teams ahead of them lost -- and one of those was Jacksonville State and its near-upset.

What poll are you looking at... Stats poll? The Coaches poll comes out first and none of what you posted is true for that poll.
 
Quig said:
If tomorrow, NAU are still just out of the top 25-- and next week,.. pull the Slo Stang against UofA--
keeping it close for much of the match,. yet falling to southern Arizona.
We might still just be outside of the top 25.

However two weeks from now if we play the Griz close yet can't come away with a win------
With,, New Mexico Highlands being a top 10 NAIA team, NAU could still scrap to be just outside the top 25!

However after the Griz. We have the MSU Bobcats at home.
And while it is unusual for a Big Sky north team to travel to a D2 school---if we play the bobcats close, as has generally been the case at home.
We'll probably be ranked just inside the 'regular season big sky conference, play, during the regular season after pre-season polls'!!

Nothing personal... but WTH...
 
Paytonlives said:
... What poll are you looking at... Stats poll? The Coaches poll comes out first and none of what you posted is true for that poll.
Yes. Sorry, I should have been more clear in the title. :oops:

Fixed now. (And we'll know how our guesses did in a few hours.)
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Alaska Griz said:
Looks pretty good to me. I'd swap Coastal and SHSU. Also, NDSU and the Griz should be much closer together in the poll, Cal Poly higher. But in four weeks we'll have a better sense.
I agree with all your points.

I suspect that if SHSU and CC faced off, Coastal would win. About NDSU and the Griz being closer in ranking: How many times have we seen a team that lost the head--to-head still ranked higher? Way too many times. And Cal Poly should be higher but, somehow, they just do not get any respect from the pollsters.

All that being said, the "guesses" part of this exercise is not about my personal rankings ... it's about guessing what the people who vote on the rankings are going to do. And, God knows, that often makes not much [no?] sense. :lol:

I've seen SHSU play (against Texas Tech)....and their offense is the real deal. Not sure about their D, but man, their O can score in bunches.
 
AZGrizFan said:
... I've seen SHSU play (against Texas Tech)....and their offense is the real deal. Not sure about their D, but man, their O can score in bunches.
I saw the offense numbers for SHSU and thought they at least had a chance in a shoot-out with T-Tech. The game did turn into a shoot-out, all right (over 1,200 yards of offense between them 104 points), but the Bearkats could not stop the Red Raiders. Just looked at the box score and Tech only punted two times. Losing the turnover battle (4-1) had a lot to do with the 59-45 final score.
 
That poll is out...

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs


1 Coastal Carolina (14) 2-0 620 1
2 North Dakota State 1-1 592 2
3 Villanova 1-1 574 2
4 Jacksonville State (5) 1-1 553 6
5 Sam Houston State 0-1 545 4
6 Illinois State (1) 1-1 538 5
7 Montana 1-1 450 8
8 South Dakota State (2) 2-0 440 10
9 Montana State 1-0 434 9
10 James Madison 2-0 409 11
11 Northern Iowa 1-1 403 14
12 Chattanooga 1-1 343 12
13 New Hampshire 1-1 287 15
14 Liberty 1-1 285 13
15 Eastern Washington 0-2 270 7
16 Youngstown State 1-1 240 17
17 Southeastern Louisiana 2-0 208 18
18 Cal Poly 1-1 195 20
19 Fordham 1-1 183 16
20 Portland State 2-0 123 NR
21 McNeese State 1-0 121 23
22 Eastern Kentucky 1-1 120 19
23 Richmond 1-1 90 22
24 Northern Arizona 2-0 74 NR
25 Indiana State 1-1 72 21
 
...and the 9/14 STATS poll:

1 Jacksonville State (1-1) 3491 (39) 5
2 Coastal Carolina (2-0) 3461 (36) 3
3 Sam Houston State (0-1) 3450 (38) 1
4 North Dakota State (1-1) 3441 (23) 2
5 Illinois State (1-1) 3235 (6) 4
6 Villanova (1-1) 3219 (4) 6
7 South Dakota State (2-0) 2825 (8) 9
8 Montana (1-1) 2650 8
9 UNI (1-1) 2483 14
10 Chattanooga (1-1) 2162 10
11 Montana State (1-0) 2114 11
12 James Madison (2-0) 2094 13
13 New Hampshire (1-1) 2080 12
14 Eastern Washington (0-2) 1865 7
15 Liberty (1-1) 1426 15
16 Youngstown State (1-1) 1420 17
17 Cal Poly (1-1) 1387 18
18 Fordham (1-1) 1198 16
19 Portland State (2-0) 1025 24
20 Southeastern Louisiana (2-0) 1018 20
21 Eastern Kentucky (1-1) 840 19
22 Richmond (1-1) 711 22
23 Indiana State (1-1) 551 21
24 Northern Arizona (2-0) 380 NR
25 Harvard (0-0) 297 25
Others: McNeese State (281) , North Dakota (248) , William & Mary (198) , Samford (189) , Idaho State (73) , Western Illinois (46) , North Carolina A&T (34) , Sacred Heart (23) , Alcorn State (22) , South Dakota (16) , Stephen F. Austin (13) , Lamar (12) , Towson (11) , Southeast Missouri State (9) , Drake (7) , Southern Utah (6) , Bethune-Cookman (6) , South Carolina State (5) , Southern Illinois (4) , Dartmouth (4) , Jacksonville (4) , Bryant (4) , Duquesne (3) , Tennessee State (2) , Stony Brook (2) , Citadel (1) , Southern University (1) , Delaware (1) , Charleston Southern (1) , Wofford (1)
 
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