IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Normally, I don’t bother with polls this early in the season. Also, with so many money games against FBS opponents, it’s even more of a guessing game as to how the pollsters will factor in all the losses. However, I decided to go ahead because I’ll be interested to see how they react to some unexpected wins, and losses.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1 SDSU (2-0) [1]
2 North Dakota State (2-0) [2]
3 William & Mary (2-0) [4]
4 Idaho (2-0) [7]
5 Montana State (1-1) [3]
6 Sacramento State (2-0) [9]
7 Incarnate Word (1-1) [10]
8 Holy Cross (1-1) [5]
9 Weber State (2-0) [12]
10 Furman (1-1) [6]
11 Montana (2-0) [13]
12 New Hampshire (1-1) [11]
13 SE Missouri State (1-1) [14]
14 North Dakota (2-0) [17]
15 Samford (1-1) [8]
16 NC Central (2-0) [18]
17 Mercer (2-1) [20]
18 UC Davis (1-1) [15]
19 SE Louisiana (0-2) [16]
20 Southern Illinois (2-0) [24]
21 Rhode Island (1-1) [22]
22 Delaware (1-1) [19]
23 Villanova (2-0) NR
24 Gardner-Webb (1-1) NR
25 Northern Iowa (0-2) [21]
NR Florida A&M (1-1) [23]
NR Youngstown State (1-1) [25]
Of course, the first question is: How far will the pollsters drop the kitties? Not very much, I would think, since they played the #1 team close on the road. In fact, I considered just one spot. However, the way Idaho man-handled FBS(?
) Nevada was one of those results that made this exercise interesting. I think the pollsters might drop MSU one more spot to make room for Idaho. We’ll see what happens.
As a rule (of thumb), I generally expect the pollsters to equate an FBS opponent to a kind of ranked FCS. (Of course, this early in the season, I could be way off base, but I’m going with it.) Thus, the close loss by Holy Cross to Boston College will likely not drop them out of the top-10. I could see them drop one more spot, and that would nudge Weber up one more … which the Weebs perhaps deserve after they handled ranked Northern Iowa so well (shutting them out in the second half).
Furman, however, got pounded by their FBS opponent, so they should drop a bit more. My “homer” thought was to drop them another spot, which would have made room for the Griz … but I restrained myself.
New Hampshire lost by only a FG to their FBS opponent, so I only bumped them a spot. However, Central Michigan is fairly weak, even for the MAC, and I could easily see the Wildcats drop another spot or two.
The big loser was Samford. They were expected to contend for the SoCon title this year, but lost badly to mediocre (and unranked) conference opponent Western Carolina. I could easily see them drop a bit more.
Next loser in line was UC Davis, which got pummeled by FBS-ranked Oregon State. The pollsters could be much harder on them than I project, so a drop to maybe #20 would not surprise me.
The loss by SE Louisiana to their FBS opponents should cost them a few spots. I considered one more to further reward Southern Illinois for its close win over its FBS opponent. However, the final score was close and Northern Illinois is pretty weak, even in the MAC. I bumped the Salukis four spots as a reward, but won’t be surprised if the pollsters aren’t nearly so generous.
Like UC Davis, Delaware was another team that got pounded by a ranked FBS opponent. Again, I could see the pollsters punish them a bit more than I project.
Now it gets interesting in a different way. Later in the season at least, a team ranked below about #22 or #23 drops from the top-25 if they lose, no matter who the opponent is. It remains to be seen if the pollsters see it that way with so few games played. In any case, that rule of thumb bumped the Rattlers and Youngstown State from the rankings. My replacements both won against good opponents, and were high in the “Others Receiving Votes” in the last poll.
Note that all this leaves Northern Iowa just barely in, despite their (0-2) record. That might not hold up, but I’m going with it … given past history
.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1 SDSU (2-0) [1]
2 North Dakota State (2-0) [2]
3 William & Mary (2-0) [4]
4 Idaho (2-0) [7]
5 Montana State (1-1) [3]
6 Sacramento State (2-0) [9]
7 Incarnate Word (1-1) [10]
8 Holy Cross (1-1) [5]
9 Weber State (2-0) [12]
10 Furman (1-1) [6]
11 Montana (2-0) [13]
12 New Hampshire (1-1) [11]
13 SE Missouri State (1-1) [14]
14 North Dakota (2-0) [17]
15 Samford (1-1) [8]
16 NC Central (2-0) [18]
17 Mercer (2-1) [20]
18 UC Davis (1-1) [15]
19 SE Louisiana (0-2) [16]
20 Southern Illinois (2-0) [24]
21 Rhode Island (1-1) [22]
22 Delaware (1-1) [19]
23 Villanova (2-0) NR
24 Gardner-Webb (1-1) NR
25 Northern Iowa (0-2) [21]
NR Florida A&M (1-1) [23]
NR Youngstown State (1-1) [25]
Of course, the first question is: How far will the pollsters drop the kitties? Not very much, I would think, since they played the #1 team close on the road. In fact, I considered just one spot. However, the way Idaho man-handled FBS(?
) Nevada was one of those results that made this exercise interesting. I think the pollsters might drop MSU one more spot to make room for Idaho. We’ll see what happens.As a rule (of thumb), I generally expect the pollsters to equate an FBS opponent to a kind of ranked FCS. (Of course, this early in the season, I could be way off base, but I’m going with it.) Thus, the close loss by Holy Cross to Boston College will likely not drop them out of the top-10. I could see them drop one more spot, and that would nudge Weber up one more … which the Weebs perhaps deserve after they handled ranked Northern Iowa so well (shutting them out in the second half).
Furman, however, got pounded by their FBS opponent, so they should drop a bit more. My “homer” thought was to drop them another spot, which would have made room for the Griz … but I restrained myself.
New Hampshire lost by only a FG to their FBS opponent, so I only bumped them a spot. However, Central Michigan is fairly weak, even for the MAC, and I could easily see the Wildcats drop another spot or two.
The big loser was Samford. They were expected to contend for the SoCon title this year, but lost badly to mediocre (and unranked) conference opponent Western Carolina. I could easily see them drop a bit more.
Next loser in line was UC Davis, which got pummeled by FBS-ranked Oregon State. The pollsters could be much harder on them than I project, so a drop to maybe #20 would not surprise me.
The loss by SE Louisiana to their FBS opponents should cost them a few spots. I considered one more to further reward Southern Illinois for its close win over its FBS opponent. However, the final score was close and Northern Illinois is pretty weak, even in the MAC. I bumped the Salukis four spots as a reward, but won’t be surprised if the pollsters aren’t nearly so generous.
Like UC Davis, Delaware was another team that got pounded by a ranked FBS opponent. Again, I could see the pollsters punish them a bit more than I project.
Now it gets interesting in a different way. Later in the season at least, a team ranked below about #22 or #23 drops from the top-25 if they lose, no matter who the opponent is. It remains to be seen if the pollsters see it that way with so few games played. In any case, that rule of thumb bumped the Rattlers and Youngstown State from the rankings. My replacements both won against good opponents, and were high in the “Others Receiving Votes” in the last poll.
Note that all this leaves Northern Iowa just barely in, despite their (0-2) record. That might not hold up, but I’m going with it … given past history
.
) away from winning so not sure they will get dinged. I think pretty good otherwise.
