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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 7)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Well, this one is painful, but I hate to break with tradition. About the only consolation (meager, at that) is that the Griz had lots of company: Seven ranked teams lost this weekend.

Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (5-0) [1]
#2 SDSU (3-1) [3]
#3 Kennesaw State (5-1) [4]
#4 EWU (5-1) [5]
#6 Elon (4-1) [10]
#7 James Madison (4-2) [2]
#8 Jacksonville St (4-1) [8]
#9 McNeese (5-1) [9]
#10 NC A&T (5-1) [11]
#11 Weber State (3-2) [6]
#12 Nicholls (4-2) [12]
#13 Illinois State (4-1) [15]
#14 UC Davis (4-1) [16]
#15 SHSU (3-2) [17]
#16 Rhode Island (4-1) [18]
#17 Cent. Arkansas (3-2) [20]
#18 Stony Brook (4-2) [13]
#19 Towson (4-1) [23]
#20 Montana (4-2) [14]
#21 Colgate (5-0) [21]
#22 Maine (3-2) [25]
#23 ETSU (5-1) [NR]
#24 Villanova (3-3) [19]
#25 South Dakota (3-2) [NR]

NR Northern Iowa (2-3) [22]
NR Missouri St (3-2) [24]

Normally, a loss drops a team about five spots. I used six for the Griz because their loss will almost certainly be considered a “bad” loss. The result looks about right to me since that puts UM in a stretch with other two-loss teams (discounting Colgate, which plays a totally wimp schedule).

I’ve seen some speculation that #2 James Madison and #10 Elon will switch places in the next poll. That’s not impossible (pollsters do weird stuff), but I do not recall it ever happening across that much of a difference. So what I did was drop JMU the “usual” five spots and nudge Elon in just ahead of them. But don’t be surprised if the order is reversed … as I said, pollsters do weird stuff.

Northern Iowa looked good/okay for awhile against NDSU, but ended up getting pummeled pretty bad (56-31). They were hanging on by a thread anyway, so they will surely drop out of the top-25. Same goes for Missouri State.

Had a bit of a quandary in trying to fill those two open spots. Chattanooga was the top vote-getter in last week’s poll, but they lost (at home). Moving up the next in line, East Tennessee State, was an easy enough call. Next in line was Princeton, but they were only 25 points ahead of South Dakota, which beat #24 Missouri State. So I’m betting (guessing) that USD will move into the top-25.
 
Was looking over Big Sky records again.

That was mostly to see who the current Big Sky leaders play the rest of the way. Nothing really jumped out, other than the likelihood that EWU Will probably be the champion (maybe co-champion) and auto-bid.

But two points did jump out. First: When will those idiot pollsters finally decide Idaho State might be a pretty good team? Despite the way the Bengals dismantled UI, I'd be surprised if they made the top-25 (lots of pollsters are dumb).
Second: Will Weber State really drop only five spots (the "normal" amount)? I'm not going to change my guesses, but it would also not surprise me if their 3-2 record caused WSU to drop several more spots ... putting them in the vicinity of Sam Houston State (also 3-2).
 
I think Nova is gone at 3-3, along with Mo State. I think Idaho State sneaks in at 4-1. I would certainly rank them higher than a 2-loss Montana who lost at home to Portland State.
 
Bengal visitor said:
I think Nova is gone at 3-3, along with Mo State. I think Idaho State sneaks in at 4-1. I would certainly rank them higher than a 2-loss Montana who lost at home to Portland State.
I agree that, with their record, ISU should "sneak" into the top-25. But with a 3-1 record, they only received 54 points in the last poll. Idaho has proven to be disastrously bad (one of their 2 wins was against a D-II team), so the pollsters can largely ignore that big Bengal win. To move into the top-25, ISU would have to pick up 300-400 points, and I'm doubtful that that will happen.

And I think there's still enough CAA bias (renewed this year, IMO) to keep 'Nova in the top-25.

We'll see in about 18 hours. ;)
 
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