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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 29)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Six ranked teams lost, four of them to unranked opponents. That right there will cause a shake-up in the next poll. Of course, the two that concern most of us the most, are the two ranked-losing-to-ranked matchups in the top-10. Will the Griz move up? I think so, but maybe not that much.

Poll Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
#1 SDSU (8-0) [1]
#2 Delaware (7-1) [5]
#3 Furman (7-1) [3]
#4 Montana (7-1) [7]
#5 Montana State (6-2) [2]
#6 Sacramento State (6-2) [6]
#7 Incarnate Word (7-1) [8]
#8 Idaho (6-2) [9]
#9 South Dakota (6-2) [4]
#10 Southern Illinois (6-2) [11]
#11 North Dakota State (6-2) [12]
#12 NC Central (7-1) [13]
#13 North Dakota (5-3) [15]
#14 Florida A&M (7-1) [16]
#15 Chattanooga (7-2) [17]
#16 Villanova (6-2) [19]
#17 Western Carolina (5-3) [10]
#18 Austin Peay (6-2) [20]
#19 Lafayette (7-1) [21]
#20 UT Martin (6-2) [14]
#21 William & Mary (5-3) [22]
#22 Northern Iowa (5-3) [23]
#23 Central Arkansas (5-3) [18]
#24 Youngstown State (5-3) [24]
#25 Holy Cross (5-3) NR

NR UC Davis (4-4) [25]

Of course, the “burning” question here on eGriz is: Will the Griz move up and, if so, how much? That’s directly related to how far the kitties might drop. The key, I think, could be this statement from Haley’s article, “Montana has defeated Idaho, which has defeated Montana State, which has defeated Sacramento State, the Big Sky’s other top-10 team … ” That should be enough to move the kitties to just behind the Griz. Factor in the decisive loss by #4 South Dakota, and that points to UM at #4.

Could the Griz go higher? Maybe, but the other teams ahead of them also won and have (7-1) records, so … probably not. In that regard, Delaware pummeled Towson, so I’m guessing the pollsters will jump them over Furman, which struggled with a weak ETSU team. Could the Griz move past Furman? Possible, but I don’t give that a high probability.

A five-spot drop is a lot after a loss to the #1 team. However, they lost at home by the “largest margin” ever between the two teams. Also, if the pollsters thought about putting them one spot higher, that would be ahead of Idaho, which they will want to reward for their win over the #2 team. Could they reward Idaho more by moving them above Incarnate Word? That would be justified, IMO, but Inc Word’s (7-1) record makes that a bit unlikely.

I think the pollsters will really hammer Western Carolina, even though Mercer is probably stronger than a lot of people give them credit for. However, the game was not as close as the final score suggests. The Catamounts made a late home-field surge in garbage time, but the Bears dominated the rest of the game.

I expect the pollsters to drop UT Martin a “normal” amount after their loss to a mediocre (at best) unranked opponent. Central Arkansas may do somewhat better (perhaps only dropping four spots) since the difference was a missed two-point conversion.

Sadly, UC Davis, sitting at the very bottom, is history after their loss. Some pollsters may recall that the Lumberjacks can be really good at times, but the (4-4) record for UCD is downright ugly at this stage of the season. That leaves a quandary as to who might replace them. Albany has a good case, after their decisive win at Maine. However, the pollsters love Holy Cross (which they had in the top-10 for several weeks), so I’m guessing the Crusaders will make it back into the top-25.
 
Incarnate Word dropped 2 spots last week after struggling to beat McNeese State. I don't think it's far-fetched that Furman would drop a spot considering that they struggled to get by ETSU. Montana will for sure be in the #3-5 range, but exactly where will be determined if pollsters are unimpressed with Furman to this point of the season.

My guesses for the Top 10:

1. South Dakota State (8-0)
2. Delaware (7-1)
3. Montana (7-1)
4. Furman (7-1)
5. Idaho (6-2)
6. Montana State (6-2)
7. Sacramento State (6-2)
8. Incarnate Word (7-1)
9. South Dakota (6-2)
10. Southern Illinois (6-2)
 
Grizzlies1982 said:
Not sure I understand why Idaho is behind both MSU and Sac State when they have beaten both? Typo or intentional?
Intentional. My take on how the pollsters react to stuff ... very much "what have you done for me lately." Remember, what you said was true a week ago, yet the pollsters had Idaho behind those two. I do not expect them to suddenly "see the light."
 
The Griz could have beat Idaho by double-digits (if a couple of pass plays are executed - not dropped). The slobcats could have beat Idaho if Taco could catch a wide-open pass ( and not let it hit him in the face), or if their defense could get a fourth-down stop. Based singularly on the MSU game at Sacramento, it does not look like the CSUS-Hornet defense is very consistent and extremely strong. To me the Big Sky power poll still looks like (1) MSU, (2a) Griz, (2b) Sacramento State, (4) Idaho, & the rest.

IdaGriz01 said:
Six ranked teams lost, four of them to unranked opponents. That right there will cause a shake-up in the next poll. Of course, the two that concern most of us the most, are the two ranked-losing-to-ranked matchups in the top-10. Will the Griz move up? I think so, but maybe not that much.


Of course, the “burning” question here on eGriz is: Will the Griz move up and, if so, how much? That’s directly related to how far the kitties might drop. The key, I think, could be this statement from Haley’s article, “Montana has defeated Idaho, which has defeated Montana State, which has defeated Sacramento State, the Big Sky’s other top-10 team … ” That should be enough to move the kitties to just behind the Griz. Factor in the decisive loss by #4 South Dakota, and that points to UM at #4.

.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Grizzlies1982 said:
Not sure I understand why Idaho is behind both MSU and Sac State when they have beaten both? Typo or intentional?
Intentional. My take on how the pollsters react to stuff ... very much "what have you done for me lately." Remember, what you said was true a week ago, yet the pollsters had Idaho behind those two. I do not expect them to suddenly "see the light."

And yet the pollsters (at least on Twitter) continually ramble on about “resume” and “body of work” etc., etc. Turns out Herder is about the only one who’s in a “what have you done for me lately” mode.
 
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