FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 29)

[IdaGriz01]

Man, I thought last week’s guesses were tough. But with ten teams in the top-25 losing, everything looks crazy. Worse yet, seven of those losses came in the eight-team block from #17 through #24. Sheesh!

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Ranking]
1 James Madison (8-0) [1]
2 North Dakota State (8-0) [2]
3 Jacksonville State (7-1) [3]
4 Central Arkansas (7-1) [4]
5 Sam Houston State (7-1) [5]
6 South Dakota (7-1) [6]
7 North Carolina A&T (8-0) [7]
8 Wofford (7-1) [8]
9 Elon (7-1) [10]
10 South Dakota State (6-2)
11 EWU (5-3) [14]
12 Grambling State (7-1) [15]
13 Illinois State (6-2) [16]
14 Stony Brook (6-2) [22]
15 Samford (5-3) [9]
16 Western Illinois (5-3) [12]
17 Southern Utah (6-2) [25]
18 New Hampshire (5-3) [17]
19 Villanova (4-4) [13]
20 Weber State (6-2) NR
21 Furman (6-3) NR
22 Northern Arizona (6-2) NR
23 Western Carolina (6-3) [18]
24 Richmond (4-4) [19]
25 McNeese (6-2) [20]

Delaware (5-3) [23]
Montana (5-3) [24]
Youngstown State (3-5) [21]

What I ended up doing, basically, was to drop the lowest ones out (including the Griz, sadly) as well as (now 3-5) Youngstown State.

That opened space for three previously unranked teams and, oddly enough, the top two were both Big Sky teams. I can’t begin to guess how much the pollsters will look at who those two beat, but if they do SUU should get a big bump … which is what I show. Northern Iowa was just behind NAU and WSU in last week’s poll, but they lost (Thank God!), so I could skip them. Looking over who won from there on down, I decided that Furman’s upset of #18 Western Carolina would earn them a lot of love.

It looks weird to have two 4-4 teams ranked in the top-25, but that’s what my formulas dictated, so I’m sticking with them. But who knows? Maybe they’ll drop out too, and the 5-3 Delaware and Griz will stay in. Absolutely nuts!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Well, I'm disappointed. I know morale is down on eGriz, but I thought sure my guesses would stir people up a bit ... on two fronts.

First: The Griz probably drop out, but my formulas have three Big Sky teams in. Or is the current disrespect for the BSC going to prevent that?

Second: We have not seen Richmond and Villanova play a lot this year, but they look like their 4-4 records are well-earned (i.e, they're a bit down). So -- for those who have seen the two teams more -- could the Griz win against either one?

 

[RayWill]

Well, I'm disappointed. I know morale is down on eGriz, but I thought sure my guesses would stir people up a bit ... on two fronts.

First: The Griz probably drop out, but my formulas have three Big Sky teams in. Or is the current disrespect for the BSC going to prevent that?

Second: We have not seen Richmond and Villanova play a lot this year, but they look like their 4-4 records are well-earned (i.e, they're a bit down). So -- for those who have seen the two teams more -- could the Griz win against either one?

Well all it does so is paint how futile the picture is. For all intents an purpose yesterday was a must win for MT. (Sorry 8-3 IMO with no quality wins will still not get MT in, unranked, no way no how) All they have left to play for now is pride, no playoff hopes. 2 maybe three teams from Big Sky make it and MT will not be in that elite number.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Well, I'm disappointed. I know morale is down on eGriz, but I thought sure my guesses would stir people up a bit ... on two fronts.

First: The Griz probably drop out, but my formulas have three Big Sky teams in. Or is the current disrespect for the BSC going to prevent that?

Second: We have not seen Richmond and Villanova play a lot this year, but they look like their 4-4 records are well-earned (i.e, they're a bit down). So -- for those who have seen the two teams more -- could the Griz win against either one?

Well all it does so is paint how futile the picture is. For all intents an purpose yesterday was a must win for MT. (Sorry 8-3 IMO with no quality wins will still not get MT in, unranked, no way no how) All they have left to play for now is pride, no playoff hopes. 2 maybe three teams from Big Sky make it and MT will not be in that elite number.

Difficult, I agree, but I do not think hopeless. But I do think they must now win out. If I'm right about NAU moving into the top-25 (not a given, by any means, the way the pollsters have treated the Big Sky), then that will give them at least one quality win. You're overlooking that the rest of the FCS world is not filled with world-beaters, and many of the top teams still have to play each other. So ... an 8-3 Griz team gets in, but probably not at 7-4.

 

[RayWill]

Well, I'm disappointed. I know morale is down on eGriz, but I thought sure my guesses would stir people up a bit ... on two fronts.

First: The Griz probably drop out, but my formulas have three Big Sky teams in. Or is the current disrespect for the BSC going to prevent that?

Second: We have not seen Richmond and Villanova play a lot this year, but they look like their 4-4 records are well-earned (i.e, they're a bit down). So -- for those who have seen the two teams more -- could the Griz win against either one?

Well all it does so is paint how futile the picture is. For all intents an purpose yesterday was a must win for MT. (Sorry 8-3 IMO with no quality wins will still not get MT in, unranked, no way no how) All they have left to play for now is pride, no playoff hopes. 2 maybe three teams from Big Sky make it and MT will not be in that elite number.

Difficult, I agree, but I do not think hopeless. But I do think they must now win out. If I'm right about NAU moving into the top-25 (not a given, by any means, the way the pollsters have treated the Big Sky), then that will give them at least one quality win. You're overlooking that the rest of the FCS world is not filled with world-beaters, and many of the top teams still have to play each other. So ... an 8-3 Griz team gets in, but probably not at 7-4.

8-3 has a shot to get it, fairly slim though. 7-4 none whatsoever. Next week is going to be tough, No Jensen, No Strong, a tough loss the week before. Not looking good at all

 

[IdaGriz01]

...
8-3 has a shot to get it, fairly slim though. 7-4 none whatsoever. Next week is going to be tough, No Jensen, No Strong, a tough loss the week before. Not looking good at all

We certainly agree on the 7-4 exit.

The team showed a lot of grit in the second half at WSU. I'm thinking they come out, at home, with their hair on fire ... and get it done.

But, we both agree, they will still have more work ahead of them.

 

[retiredpopo]

not sure why people we don't have a shot at a playoff. who else puts 16000 + in the stands the day after thanksgiving? Hell most schools don't put that many in the stands ever. Plus we will easily beat NAU and UNC and yup MSU.

 

[nzone]

A lot of football to play but the way I have it figured and the schedules of ewu and weber the selection committee would have to take 4 in order for Montana to get in at 8-3.
1. Suu is in prime position to win the conference auto bid
2. Ewu likely wins out.....I hope they crush weber. They beat us head to head.
3. Weber.....they beat us head to head.
Nau would need to lose to Montana and SUU.
Msu will not go away easily.
The only intangible we have is butts in the seats.

 

[first11]

Agreed that 7-4 is a non starter for post season

8-3 also iffy, unless the right conference outcomes come into play

The best we can do with a win out is a game on T day weekend, given the above