IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With five ranked teams having byes, we’re left with a weekend where over a third of the ranked teams playing lost. Of course, three lost to other ranked teams … but still. It will be fascinating to see how the pollsters handle the middle block (#11-#15) where four of the five ranked teams lost. The other interesting point is that the teams at #19 and down either won or were idle. Yet there were some impressive wins among the top “Others Receiving Votes” teams. The pollsters will have to really think about who they could drop out to make room for some of those.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
#1 SDSU (7-0) [1]
#2 Montana State (6-1) [2]
#3 Furman (6-1) [4]
#4 Incarnate Word (6-1) [5]
#5 South Dakota (6-1) [6]
#6 Sac State (5-2) [3]
#7 Delaware (6-1) [7]
#8 Montana (6-1) [9]
#9 Idaho (5-2) [10]
#10 NDSU (5-2) [14]
#11 Western Carolina (5-2) [8]
#12 NC Central (6-1) [16]
#13 UT Martin (6-1) [17]
#14 Southern Illinois (5-2) [12]
#15 Florida A&M (6-1) [19]
#16 North Dakota (4-3) [11]
#17 Central Arkansas (5-2) [20]
#18 William & Mary (4-3) [13]
#19 Lafayette (6-1) NR
#20 Holy Cross (4-3) [15]
#21 Chattanooga (6-2) [21]
#22 Villanova (5-2) [22]
#23 Harvard (5-1) [18]
#24 UC Davis (4-3) [23]
#25 Austin Peay (5-2) [24]
NR Youngstown State (4-3) [25]
As a rule, the pollsters only drop a team two to four spots when they lose to a higher ranked team. Thus, I’m guessing a mid-range of three down for Sac State. The only quibble is that they would be a two-loss team in among a bunch of one-loss teams. Thus, I could see them drop another spot or two … but I don’t think so.
I used the same reasoning for Western Carolina, which also lost by 12 points at home to a higher-ranked opponent. Since Southern Illinois lost by only a TD to the #1 team, I expect the pollsters to drop them only two spots.
And that brings us to North Dakota. They were pummeled on the road at Northern Iowa, which is unranked and did not receive that many votes in the last poll. Thus, I expect the pollsters to drop them a lot … perhaps even more than I’m guessing. On the flip side: What will they do with Northern Iowa? Because there were so few losses among the bottom-tier ranked teams, they would have to kick somebody out to make room for them. I do not see that happening for a (4-3) team. On the other hand, based on past history, it would not shock me to see them kick out UC Davis (also 4-3) to move the Panthers in.
Next up (down) is William & Mary, which lost at home to an unranked opponent. In fact, Towson has not received any votes in the STATS poll this season. Thus, I could see the pollsters drop The Tribe another spot or two.
Now we come to another usual situation. Holy Cross lost at home to an unranked opponent. However, it can be argued that Lafayette (6-1) should have been ranked. Trying to outguess 56 pollsters is a risky business, but I’m going to give it a try. I have dropped the Crusaders five spots, more or less the normal amount. I then slotted Lafayette in just above them. Out on a limb here, but I think worth a shot. To make room, I dropped Youngstown State off the very bottom. They won, but only by a FG over a mediocre opponent.
Harvard lost on the road to an unranked opponent, so they will surely drop. The “standard” amount is five or six spots, but I think their (5-1) record will help a bit.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
#1 SDSU (7-0) [1]
#2 Montana State (6-1) [2]
#3 Furman (6-1) [4]
#4 Incarnate Word (6-1) [5]
#5 South Dakota (6-1) [6]
#6 Sac State (5-2) [3]
#7 Delaware (6-1) [7]
#8 Montana (6-1) [9]
#9 Idaho (5-2) [10]
#10 NDSU (5-2) [14]
#11 Western Carolina (5-2) [8]
#12 NC Central (6-1) [16]
#13 UT Martin (6-1) [17]
#14 Southern Illinois (5-2) [12]
#15 Florida A&M (6-1) [19]
#16 North Dakota (4-3) [11]
#17 Central Arkansas (5-2) [20]
#18 William & Mary (4-3) [13]
#19 Lafayette (6-1) NR
#20 Holy Cross (4-3) [15]
#21 Chattanooga (6-2) [21]
#22 Villanova (5-2) [22]
#23 Harvard (5-1) [18]
#24 UC Davis (4-3) [23]
#25 Austin Peay (5-2) [24]
NR Youngstown State (4-3) [25]
As a rule, the pollsters only drop a team two to four spots when they lose to a higher ranked team. Thus, I’m guessing a mid-range of three down for Sac State. The only quibble is that they would be a two-loss team in among a bunch of one-loss teams. Thus, I could see them drop another spot or two … but I don’t think so.
I used the same reasoning for Western Carolina, which also lost by 12 points at home to a higher-ranked opponent. Since Southern Illinois lost by only a TD to the #1 team, I expect the pollsters to drop them only two spots.
And that brings us to North Dakota. They were pummeled on the road at Northern Iowa, which is unranked and did not receive that many votes in the last poll. Thus, I expect the pollsters to drop them a lot … perhaps even more than I’m guessing. On the flip side: What will they do with Northern Iowa? Because there were so few losses among the bottom-tier ranked teams, they would have to kick somebody out to make room for them. I do not see that happening for a (4-3) team. On the other hand, based on past history, it would not shock me to see them kick out UC Davis (also 4-3) to move the Panthers in.
Next up (down) is William & Mary, which lost at home to an unranked opponent. In fact, Towson has not received any votes in the STATS poll this season. Thus, I could see the pollsters drop The Tribe another spot or two.
Now we come to another usual situation. Holy Cross lost at home to an unranked opponent. However, it can be argued that Lafayette (6-1) should have been ranked. Trying to outguess 56 pollsters is a risky business, but I’m going to give it a try. I have dropped the Crusaders five spots, more or less the normal amount. I then slotted Lafayette in just above them. Out on a limb here, but I think worth a shot. To make room, I dropped Youngstown State off the very bottom. They won, but only by a FG over a mediocre opponent.
Harvard lost on the road to an unranked opponent, so they will surely drop. The “standard” amount is five or six spots, but I think their (5-1) record will help a bit.
