IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Every week brings a new set of problems in trying to guess what the pollsters will do, and this week is no exception. Down at the bottom, where four ranked teams lost, the choices should be relatively straightforward. But what about those two losses in the top-10? How far will the losers drop … and will the pollsters move the Griz up after their solid road win?
Since STATS.com runs the poll, what Craig Haley says has to be a factor. In his review of yesterday’s results, he made two very interesting observations. First, he called the NDSU loss a “beatdown” (which it was). That’s not a good omen for them. He also pointed out something I hadn’t noticed. There are seven FCS teams that have won two games against STATS-ranked opponents, one of which are the Griz. But here’s the deal: Montana is the only team on that list that had its two ranked-team wins on the road.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
#1 SDSU (6-0) [1]
#2 Montana State (5-1) [2]
#3 Sacramento State (5-1) [4]
#4 Furman (5-1) [5]
#5 Idaho (5-2) [3]
#6 Incarnate Word (5-1) [7]
#7 Delaware (5-1) [8]
#8 Western Carolina (5-1) [9]
#9 South Dakota (5-1) [10]
#10 North Dakota (4-2) [15]
#11 NDSU (4-2) [6]
#12 Montana (6-1) [16]
#13 William & Mary (4-2) [11]
#14 Holy Cross (4-2) [12]
#15 Southern Illinois (5-1) [13]
#16 NC Central (5-1) [14]
#17 UT Martin (5-1) [17]
#18 Florida A&M (5-1) [18]
#19 Harvard (5-0) [19]
#20 Central Arkansas (5-2) [20]
#21 Villanova (5-2) NR
#22 Chattanooga (5-2) [25]
#23 UC Davis (4-3) NR
#24 New Hampshire (3-3) NR
#25 YSU (3-3) [23]
NR Weber State (3-4) [22]
NR Eastern Washington (2-4) [21]
NR Albany (4-3) [24]
I’m about to bend some of my rules of thumb, but my Idaho placement is not one of them. The Vandals lost by just two points to what I think the pollsters will see as a strong ranked opponent. They might drop one more spot, but not much more than that. (More on the Griz in a moment.)
That, of course, brings us to North Dakota State. They too lost to a strong ranked team and would not normally drop a lot. But when the result was a “beatdown,” I’m guessing the pollsters will decide that the loser should not be in the top-10. Could be wrong, and I could also see them dropping even further. Still, I don’t think that will happen since the Bison’s two losses were to ranked teams.
Now here’s where I really bend my rules. As a general thing, teams don’t move up a lot unless there are easy gaps to move into … which we really don’t have. However, because of the beatdown, I’m thinking the pollsters might jump North Dakota to just ahead of NDSU. That’s five spots, which would be quite unusual … but I think not in this case.
So then I bent my rules once more and moved the Griz up four to #12. Again, that would be quite unusual. I think it could happened because (1) the Griz beat the #3 team on the road (for a second road win against a ranked opponent), and (2) that nice 6-1 record starts to look pretty impressive when it includes those two great wins.
The rest of the list is fairly routine. Weber and EWU were not highly ranked, lost to unranked opponents, and now have losing records. Albany was barely into the top-25, and also lost to an unranked opponent. So they’re all gone. It happens that many of the top “Others Receiving Votes” teams also lost. Thus, I had to dig a bit deeper to find likely “replacements.” That being said, one was easy: I think the pollsters will stick UC Davis in where Weber dropped out. Also, since New Hampshire knocked off Albany, they’ll get that spot. Lastly, Villanova was the highest previous vote-getter that won, so I moved them into the block of (5-2) teams.
I am a bit uneasy about Youngstown State, even though they lost by only a FG on the road to a top-10 opponent. With them sitting at #23, they may not get enough votes from the pollsters to hang on in the top-25. If they drop out, my replacement would be Austin Peay, which had a very impressive win (and Haley had nice things to say about them.)
Since STATS.com runs the poll, what Craig Haley says has to be a factor. In his review of yesterday’s results, he made two very interesting observations. First, he called the NDSU loss a “beatdown” (which it was). That’s not a good omen for them. He also pointed out something I hadn’t noticed. There are seven FCS teams that have won two games against STATS-ranked opponents, one of which are the Griz. But here’s the deal: Montana is the only team on that list that had its two ranked-team wins on the road.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
#1 SDSU (6-0) [1]
#2 Montana State (5-1) [2]
#3 Sacramento State (5-1) [4]
#4 Furman (5-1) [5]
#5 Idaho (5-2) [3]
#6 Incarnate Word (5-1) [7]
#7 Delaware (5-1) [8]
#8 Western Carolina (5-1) [9]
#9 South Dakota (5-1) [10]
#10 North Dakota (4-2) [15]
#11 NDSU (4-2) [6]
#12 Montana (6-1) [16]
#13 William & Mary (4-2) [11]
#14 Holy Cross (4-2) [12]
#15 Southern Illinois (5-1) [13]
#16 NC Central (5-1) [14]
#17 UT Martin (5-1) [17]
#18 Florida A&M (5-1) [18]
#19 Harvard (5-0) [19]
#20 Central Arkansas (5-2) [20]
#21 Villanova (5-2) NR
#22 Chattanooga (5-2) [25]
#23 UC Davis (4-3) NR
#24 New Hampshire (3-3) NR
#25 YSU (3-3) [23]
NR Weber State (3-4) [22]
NR Eastern Washington (2-4) [21]
NR Albany (4-3) [24]
I’m about to bend some of my rules of thumb, but my Idaho placement is not one of them. The Vandals lost by just two points to what I think the pollsters will see as a strong ranked opponent. They might drop one more spot, but not much more than that. (More on the Griz in a moment.)
That, of course, brings us to North Dakota State. They too lost to a strong ranked team and would not normally drop a lot. But when the result was a “beatdown,” I’m guessing the pollsters will decide that the loser should not be in the top-10. Could be wrong, and I could also see them dropping even further. Still, I don’t think that will happen since the Bison’s two losses were to ranked teams.
Now here’s where I really bend my rules. As a general thing, teams don’t move up a lot unless there are easy gaps to move into … which we really don’t have. However, because of the beatdown, I’m thinking the pollsters might jump North Dakota to just ahead of NDSU. That’s five spots, which would be quite unusual … but I think not in this case.
So then I bent my rules once more and moved the Griz up four to #12. Again, that would be quite unusual. I think it could happened because (1) the Griz beat the #3 team on the road (for a second road win against a ranked opponent), and (2) that nice 6-1 record starts to look pretty impressive when it includes those two great wins.
The rest of the list is fairly routine. Weber and EWU were not highly ranked, lost to unranked opponents, and now have losing records. Albany was barely into the top-25, and also lost to an unranked opponent. So they’re all gone. It happens that many of the top “Others Receiving Votes” teams also lost. Thus, I had to dig a bit deeper to find likely “replacements.” That being said, one was easy: I think the pollsters will stick UC Davis in where Weber dropped out. Also, since New Hampshire knocked off Albany, they’ll get that spot. Lastly, Villanova was the highest previous vote-getter that won, so I moved them into the block of (5-2) teams.
I am a bit uneasy about Youngstown State, even though they lost by only a FG on the road to a top-10 opponent. With them sitting at #23, they may not get enough votes from the pollsters to hang on in the top-25. If they drop out, my replacement would be Austin Peay, which had a very impressive win (and Haley had nice things to say about them.)
